The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, February 10, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Nickname; 5-Riri
We’ll handicap this race under the assumption that it will be run as scheduled down the Hillside Turf Course, though rain, if it arrives, could cause a surface switch. Nickname makes her California debut for the Richard Mandella barn and has trained like she’s fit and ready. This will be her first start on grass but she’s a daughter of Scat Daddy so she should handle any surface. She’s also Grade-1 winner and multiple graded stakes placed. We’ll also include Riri, the talented Speightstown filly from the Phil D’Amato barn. Away since July, she won her debut so you know she can fire fresh and has won over this course and distance as well. With a series of good recent works she looks cranked up for a major effort.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Gato Dolce
Gato Dolce is 3/5 on the morning line in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint, not so much because of his credentials but rather because the competition is practically no existent. ‘Dolce, second off the layoff for Mandella and dropping into a $20,000 claimer after finishing far back in a highly-rated straight maiden affair, makes his second start off a long layoff and sports a bullet three furlong blowout last week. This is an unplayable race, but you can use ‘Dolce as a no-value rolling exotic single if you’d like.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Sudden Sam; 5-Roman Success
Restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimers meet over a mile to kick off the Pick-6 in the third race. Sudden Sam stretches out for the first time and seems very likely to be the controlling speed. He’s reunited with Tyler Baze, who has won on him in the past, and if the son of Tribal Rule is ever going to get the trip, it will be today. Romar Success, away for 22 months, returns for new trainer Peter Eurton with a steady series of drills and lands leading rider Flavien Prat, so we assume the seven-year-old gelding is fit and ready. We’ll use him as back-up but prefer Sudden Sam on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Single: 1-Merrily Merilly
Merrily Merilly probably can’t beat a better-than-average older maiden but there may not be one in here. In the money in her last pair with fair speed figures, the daughter of Unusual Heat appears much the best of the known element and really should only have to worry about the first-time starters, both of whom haven’t done anything noteworthy in a.m. workouts. Let’s go with Merilly Merilly on top but it’s a default play and not deserving of a major investment.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-El Super; 2-Fishel; 4-Unapologetic
This is another race that has been scheduled for turf but may be at the mercy of rain, which as of this writing is predicted during the afternoon. Unapologetic is a first-off-the-claim for Bill Spawr (20% with this angle) and make his first start since November while being protected in a starter’s allowance race, a sure sign of confidence. His form is nothing to write home about but he does attract Mike Smith and could easily be a better type for his new connections. Fishel, away since last April, lands Prat and has run reasonably well without winning over this turf course in the past. He’ll be running on late. El Super has won over this course, removes blinkers and looks very much like the controlling speed from the rail. He’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Success Rate; 3-Tribal Again
Success Rate returns to his winning (and claim) level and looks well-spotted to return to winning form. The veteran gelding has a good stalking style that should allow for a trouble-free journey, and on pure numbers he’s more than good enough to handle this assignment. Tribal Again moves up another notch on the class ladder while seeking his third straight score and deserves a look as well, though his deep closing style may be problematic against this group. First or second in 14 of 35 career starts, the Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding most likely will be heard from late but probably needs some help up front. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top going to Success Rate
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Top of the Game
Top of the Game appeared vastly improved in winning against a lesser group over a wet fast track earlier this meeting and may encounter the same type of surface today that he performed so well over in late December. The Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding has an ideal stalking style that should land him in a ground-saving, second-flight position that should allow him every chance from the top of the stretch to the wire. Three nice workouts since his win with Kent Desormeaux staying aboard are other positive factors. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Hard Arch; 10-Marchtothemusic
The finale is a high-priced maiden claiming main track mile affair for 3-year-olds. Hard Arch, exiting a fast sprint, stretches out for the first time and should find these conditions ideal. The son of Archarcharach could find himself on the front end but probably would be just as comfortable in a stalking position. With the switch to Desormeaux, the Cerin-trained colt looks extremely live and well-meant. Marchtothemusic has the maiden-to-maiden claiming class drop angle that is always dangerous and is strictly the one to beat despite the extreme outside post position. He makes a positive switch to Baze, shows two easy workouts since his last race, and can flash high speed if he’s asked to do so. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but slightly prefer Hard Arch on top.
Friday, February 10, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Dancin in the Heat; 2-Ravelo’s Boy
RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dubai Bob; 3-Our Independence
RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Catanova; 5-Brothers Forever
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Hammers Vision; 3-Izzy the Warrior
RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Front Row Debbie; 4-Leroids Mommie
RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Bar Down; 9-Town Policy
RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Silver Wrath; 4-Cape Force; 8-Prominence
RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Tequesta Storm; 4-Prince Vincenzo; 7-Bow Tie Affair
RACE 9: Post 4:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Assail; 7-Kiss the Crown; 10-R Sweet Exchange
RACE 10: Post: 5:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 8-Transformative; 9-Big Money Machine
RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Sasstalk; 12-Dero D