Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 11, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Saturday, February 11, 2017


RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Fritz Johansen; 3-Brandothebartender

As of this writing the opener is scheduled for turf, but overnight rains could change that. Fritz Johansen is being wheeled back a little quicker than we’d prefer – he was a sharp winner in a competitive claimer just 13 days ago – but if he can handle the short rest the Peter Miller-trained gelding figures tough right back. Brandothebartender won a state bred first-level allowance race over this course and distance last month with a career top speed figure and has trained sharply since. He loses Kent Desormeaux today (who opts for Fritz Johansen) but picks up Flavien Prat and this Tribal Rule gelding always has been partial to this turf course. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring ‘Johansen on top.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Allthatnmore; 6-Individual Design

Modest $8,000 claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile in the second race. Allthatnmore, first off the claim for Mark Rheinford, stretches out again, lands the rail and likely will try gate-to-wire tactics. This trip might be stretching her limit but in a soft field she might get brave if she can shake loose early. Individual Design boasts an excellent record over the Santa Anita main track (three wins in nine starts) and has numbers that fit. Low percentage connections make her hard to embrace, but the veteran mare knows where the wire is and must be respected. We’ll try to get by in our rolling exotics using just these two.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-This’s How We Roll; 6-Loud Stalker

The third race is an extended sprint for maiden $30,000 claiming sophomores and boils down to two main contenders. This’s How We Roll chased a tougher group in a hot race for the level in his debut and should benefit greatly from the outing. This is a considerably easier task, he’s worked quite well since that race and figures to produce a significant forward move. Loud Stalker is the one to fear most; the Kafwain gelding is a first-time gelding, is re-equipped with blinkers, and has the kind of early zip that could make him the one to catch. Let’s go with This’s How We Roll slightly on top – with just one outing the son of Benchmark may have more room for upside – but use both in rolling exotic play.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Vale Dori

Val Dori is listed at the 1/5 morning line favorite in the Santa Maria S.-G2 and there’s little reason to believe the outcome will be different than the La Canada S.-G2, a race she won without much of a challenge at 30 cents on the dollar. Clearly, this is an unplayable race and rolling exotic player really have no option other than to use her as a no-value single.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Ring Weekend; 5-Conquest Enforcer

The second feature race of the program is the Arcadia S.-G2, a strong grass turf miler that should see Ring Weekend return to top form (assuming the race remains on grass). A winner of the Kilroe S.-G1 over this course and distance last year, the son of Tapit struggled home fifth in the off-the-turf, sloppy-track San Gabriel S.-G3 here last month but that effort is best ignored. There’s enough speed to compliment his late-running style and we’re expecting Rafael Bejarano to have this gelding along in time. Conquest Enforcer looked quite good winning the Mathis Brothers Mile-G2 on opening day and has maintained his sharp form in the interim with a series of impressive workouts. Today he’s tackling tougher older foes but on pure numbers he’s a fit and Prat can have him on the lead if he wishes or more likely settling into a stalking position. Let’s go with Ring Weekend on top and have an extra ticket or two keying him in the rolling exotics.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Willing to Travel; 6-Over Achiever

We’ll go two-deep in the sixth race, a $10,000 claiming miler for older horses. Willing to Travel is fresh from a win under similar conditions in late December but had his claim voided due to unsoundness. A recent five furlong workout was solid, so he should be set for a good effort, his physical issues notwithstanding. Over Achiever takes a significant drop in class while stretching out again and probably will try to take this field gate to wire. The Hollendorfer-trained gelding retains Prat and has several recent speed figures that make him the one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with ‘Achiever deserving preference on top.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Last One Standing; 6-Celebrated Talent

The seventh race is carded for $25,000 claiming sprinters; it’s a below par field for the level and should boil down to Celebrated Talent and Last One Standing. The former is a first-off-the-claim for Peter Miller (34% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle) and seems highly-likely to run at least as well as he did last month when finishing a solid runner-up at this level after pressing the pace throughout. The 7-year-old gelding retains Bejarano and should draft into a good second flight, stalking position. ‘Standing, now in the Doug O’Neill barn after being haltered for $16,000 after winning in sharp style in mid-January, looks dangerous right back despite the hike in class and should be on or near the lead throughout.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 9-Aristocratic

Aristocratic has much in his favor in this maiden special weight sprint at five and one-half furlongs. Both of his prior outings were good, his numbers are improving, he has the blinkers off angle that we like and he continues to impress in the morning. The Malibu Moon colt switches to Bejarano and will have clear sailing from his outside post. Though he was beaten as the even money favorite when runner-up in a similar last month over a muddy track, the O’Neill-trained colt should be able to make amends today as a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Fortune of War; 8-Ritzy A. P.

The finale is straight maiden turf miler that looks ideal for the recent turf sprint runner-up Ritzy A. P. The Dan Blacker-trained colt missed by a nose in a promising debut last month and has come back to train quite well, indicating a forward move is likely. The son of English Channel certainly is bred to improve with distance, so if Victor Espinoza can negotiate a decent trip from his outside draw, he should have this colt along in time. Fortune of War makes his U.S. debut for Eric Kruljac and rates a look off his useful English form from last fall. He’s trained well enough to be fit for a good effort and with Prat aboard he looks like a live item. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while giving preference on top to Ritzy A. P.



Saturday, February 11, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Zeus Odin; 6-Bermuda Triangle


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Sassy Sierra; 6-Tricky Moon


RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X

Single: 4-Venom Girl


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Kyles Marigold; 5-Camaria


​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Fenerbahce; 4-Social Stranger; 8-Danger Bay

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Case Dismissed; 6-Mary Sue Weloveyou; 9-Love Me in Malibu

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Nessy; 3-Flying Bullet; 10-Neoclassic


​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Compagno; 9-Donwell; 10-Wannabeaplayer

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Sea Coast; 6-Sandiva

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Beach Patrol; 5-Flatlined; 6-Divisidero


RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Tommy Macho; 5-Zulu; 7-Sharp Azteca


RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Hidden Vow; 3-Seuss; 6-Hampstead Heath



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 11, 2017

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