The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, January 8, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Amen Sista; 8-Paddy Jean
The Sunday opener is a maiden special weight turf miler for sophomore fillies. Paddy Jean finished third in a similar event at Del Mar last month and not much more will be needed to handle this modest assignment. Amen Sista is a first-timer from the Phil D’Amato barn with an okay work tab. She lands Flavien Prat and has some turf breeding, so we'll make her a contender as well. Let's try to get by using just these two in a race that we don't plan to get heavily involved with.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Country Road
Country Road has little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claiming mile affair and likely will go lower than his morning line of 2-1. He’s a seven race maiden and shouldn’t be trustworthy, but the Drysdale-trained gelding has never had an easier chance and we suspect he’ll take advantage of the situation. We’ll use him as a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Forest Blue; 4-Bolitar; 5-El Koreano
El Koreano is lightly race and improving and may be the speed of the speed. He’s always had issues but a recent sharp half mile workout should have this Mike Puype-trained gelding right on edge. Forest Blue won a restricted $25,000 claimer at Los Alamitos last month and is realistically spotted in this $16,000 non-winners of three affair. In the money in 11 of 14 career starts, the Peter Miller-trained gelding should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position. Bolitar takes a significant drop in class – he’s been chasing much tougher open $25,000 foes – and with the switch to Rafael Bejarano this lightly-raced colt may have found his friends. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring El Koreano on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-I Can Do This; 7-Potente Alba
The known element isn’t terribly inspiring in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint for sophomores so let’s try a newcomer. I Can Do This brought $87,000 at auction last May and finally makes it to the races for Mark Glatt; the son of Empire Way has done good work in the morning for a barn that’s quite capable of winning with a debut runner and with Bejarano taking the call this colt looks like a live item. We’ll put him on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 7/2. The best of those that have started appears to be Potente Alba, in the money in both of his lifetime outings and most recently missing by a head in a similar dash at Los Alamitos last month. He’s the likely choice and strictly the one to beat.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Single: 5-Junior Gilliam
Junior Gilliam appears ready for a major effort. Freshened since November and training better than the raw final times might indicate, the son of Tribal Rule remains protected by trainer Steve Miyadi and exits a series of stronger races for the level. On numbers he’s a solid fit, and with the switch to Arroyo, seems capable of producing a strong late kick. In an open affair, let’s try this lightly-raced colt as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Midnight Candy; 3-Yodelsong; 5-Avicii
The first leg of the late Pick-4 is a competitive sprint for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Avicii, claimed in her last pair and now in the Doug O’Neill barn, missed at even money in her most recent outing at Los Alamitos last month but switches to Flavien Prat and should have every chance to make amends. First or second in 12 of 24 career starts, the daughter of City Zip always has been a dependable type and a recent half mile bullet workout gives indication that she’s set to bounce back. Midnight Candy just defeated Avicii in that December 16 event and looks tough right back at this extended sprint distance that compliments her late-running style. The daughter of Midnight Lute always has been particularly fond of the Santa Anita main track. Yodelsong drops to her lowest level ever, has won over this track in the past, and continues to look sharp in the morning. The daughter of Thorn Song seems most comfortable at this trip, has numbers that fit, and should make some noise in the final furlong. Let’s triple the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Avicii on top.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Drover Crazy; 6-Distinctive B; 7-Stringent
The seventh race is an extremely strong second level allowance sprint. We’ll to three deep while preferring the unbeaten comebacker Stringent on top. The son of Lemon Drop Kid has been burning up the track in the a.m. while appearing to be fit and ready for a major effort in his first start in a year and a half. A winner of both of his prior starts when conditioned by Bruce Headley, he’s now in the Dave Hofmans barn, lands the comfortable outside post, and will be hard to beat if returns as well as he left. Distinctive B is very fast on numbers and is strictly the one to beat. The Miller-trained gelding is fresh from a sharp score at Los Alamitos and not much more will be needed to score right back. Drover Crazy earned a big figure when beating a $32,000 claiming field at Del Mar in November and is raised considerably in class by new trainer Richard Baltas (30% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) in a sign of confidence. He’s a pro – he has seven wins from 21 starts – and two recent bullet workouts over the training track seems to indicate he’s never been better.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Unique Bella; 8-Shane’s Girlfriend
Unique Bella recently broke her maiden by more than 10 lengths under wraps and earned a giant speed figure, has trained superbly since that late November win at Del Mar, and could be trainer Jerry Hollendorfer’s 2017 version of Songbird. However, she may have to be close to that in ability to defeat Shane’s Girlfriend, unbeaten and untested in two starts and a 13 length winner of the Delta Princess Stakes in November with a Grade-1 type speed figure. These are two exceptional fillies; we’ll prefer Unique Bella on top but we won’t be shocked if it winds up the other way around. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Jet Set Man
Jet Set Man flunked his route test at Del Mar so he’s back sprinting where he belongs and also will be trying the main track for the first time. The very quick son of Tribal Rule ran a winning race when nailed on the money in his debut down the hillside course during the fall meeting and that effort, if repeated today, should be more than good enough to handle this modest group of older state-bred maidens. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
Sunday, January 8, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Jack West; 6-Erich’s Talisman
RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Blame the Law; 5-Ellie’s Honor
RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Chiseled; 5-Dancin in the Heat
RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Can’tmakethisup; 7-Adagio
RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-On a Star; 6-Shea D Girl; 7-Spring Spirit
RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Aquemini; 6-Scorched Earth; 9-Lady Nicky
RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Sportscaster; 4-Regal Force; 8-Padilla
RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Gilded Warrior; 6-Piazza Del Campo; 8-Altruism
RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Kelly Tough; 4-Fast Friar; 5-Heckuvashot
RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Fleetway; 7-General McGooby; 12-Dream Shot
RACE 11: Post: 5:34 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Too Stormy; 2-Slowhand; 7-Papa Pablo