The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, March 3, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-All That Heat; 6-Mai Tai
The Friday open is a stronger-than-par first level allowance state-bred turf miler for fillies and mares. All That Heat stretches out again and won convincingly over this course and distance last summer with a career top speed figure. A repeat of that effort today will be good enough, and top rider Flavien Prat, who knows her well, stays aboard. Mai Tai has been stuck on seconds lately but adds blinkers today and that might do the trick. The daughter of Heatseeker will be doing her best work in the final furlong. The edge on top goes to All That Heat but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Iceberg Slim; 4-Kenzou’s Rhythm
Kenzou’s Rhythm just graduated over this main track with a career top figure and is realistically spotted in this moderate $20,000 claiming router for sophomores. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding should be on or near the lead throughout and looks tough right back, though at 8/5 on the morning line he offers little in the way of wagering value. Iceberg Slim, in the money in his last pair, is a one-paced grinder who should at least land in the frame. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Kenzou’s Rhythm.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 7-Fight Thru
Fight Thru has little to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming middle distance affair and need only repeat his most recent effort - a runner-up performance while finishing 11 lengths clear of the rest- to handle this task. The Peter Miller-trained gelding can settle into a stalking position and then go on with it when it counts. However, he’s 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, so probably just use the Kafwain gelding as a short priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Bezzy; 4-Dangerously Close; 7-Lostintranzlation
The fourth race is a fairly decent straight maiden extended sprint for state-bred 3-year-old fillies. We’ll use three and hope that’s sufficient. Bezzy tipped her hand with an excellent third place effort up north in her only outing; she raced greenly early but then taking hold into the stretch and finishing full of run to be beaten just over a length. The Brian Koriner-trained filly gets an extra half furlong to work with today and with good racing luck should be heard from when it counts. Dangerously Close has trained well for Dan Blacker and looks like a live debut runner from a barn that does well with first-time starters. She’s a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line. Lostintranzlation is another newcomer with credentials; the daughter of Lucky Pulpit has shown ability in her a.m. preps and looks dangerous for low profile connections. Let’s give the experienced Bezzy the nod on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Peach Cove; 5-Dressed to a T
Peach Cove just won a first-level allowance event over this turf course in clever fashion and could be tough right back in a race in which she may inherit the role as the controlling speed. The lightly-raced New Zealand-bred mare retains Prat and looks to have a bit of upside, so at 6-1 on the morning line she’s deserving of top billing. Dressed to a T is the best of the closers and is strictly the one to beat. In a bit steep when unplaced in the 12-furlong Astra II Stakes here last month, the Ben Cecil-trained mare should return to good form in this easier spot while switching to Corey Nakatani. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two extra keying Peach Cove.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Nighty Night; 6-Holy Chic; 8-Soleil Couchant
Bottom-rung maiden claiming older fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in the sixth race, a difficult affair with little to trust. Holy Chic finished far back in her only outing vs. straight maiden company last spring; she returns with an okay work tab for Mike Machowsky and will race with blinkers this time around. We’ll put her on top by default. Nighty Night drops to her lowest level ever and has speed figures that fit, and she did finish a strong second in her only prior outing over the Santa Anita main track, so there’s at least a couple of positive factors on her resume. Soleil Couchant missed by a neck in a similar spot in late January; it was a slowly-run affair but with just two lifetime starts the daughter of Sierra Sunset might have a forward move in her. We’ll try to get by using just these three but feel free to toss in a few more if your budget allows.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Herunbridledpower has much in her favor in this extended sprint for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares and offers some value at 3-1 on the morning line if you can get it. She’s a first-off-the-claim for Jeff Bonde, a prior winner over the local main track, and sports a bullet five furlong workout since raced. The daughter of Kafwain has enough speed to make the lead but can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, so Edwin Maldonado has a few options. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Line has been burning up the track for her comeback and seems a much better type that her only outing last summer gives her credit for. The Richard Mandella-trained daughter of War Front should love the Hillside Course and with Prat aboard we’re expecting this Claiborne Farm homebred to settle off the pace and then uncork a strong late kick. With good racing luck she should be along in time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
Friday, March 3, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Assail; 5-Ortiga
RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Dazzling Deputy
RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Competitive Player; 6-Black Heir
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Datts Arties Boy; 5-Over Limit
RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Solfatara; 3-Red Aguia
RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tiz a Kitten; 5-Biondetti Song; 10-Mandeville
RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-El Mozo; 7-Campaigner’s Gold
RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Nassau Talent; 9-Conformar
RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-In Closing; 9-Dr. Corday
RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET. Grade: X
Single: 9-Barry’s Swing
RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Mr. Sam; 2-Wolf Dance; 11-Banco Dinero