The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, June 18, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Lookinforadanger; 2-Oh Scatty Oh; 4-Christmas Carol
The Sunday program begins with a maiden $50,000 claimer over a mile on turf for fillies and mares. It’s a wide open affair requiring a spread. Oh Scatty Oh may be as good as any; the daughter of Scat Paddy surfaces for a tag for the first time and has numbers that fit. She should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from her cozy inside draw, so we’ll put her slightly on top. Christmas Carol, an okay third over this course and distance vs. similar last month, will be making just her fourth career start so improvement is likely. She gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to hot riding bug boy Evin Roman, has rising speed figures, and should draft into perfect stalking position. Lookingforadanger, away since Del Mar, has worked steadily for her comeback and might try gate-to-wire tactics from her rail post position. At 12-1 on the morning line she’s worth using on a ticket or two.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Naughty Sophie; 6-Spirit of Shanghai; 7-Willows Babe
Maiden claiming juvenile fillies sprint five furlongs in the second race. Willows Babe has shown enough in the a.m. to be considered a major contender against this level of competition. She drilled with recent winner Schulace from the gate (see workout) and more than held her own. Spirit of Shanghai has displayed good speed in the morning (see workout) and looks like a live item for trainer John Brocklebank. Naughty Sophie hails from the clever Peter Miller barn (strong stats with debut runners) and might be better than her moderate San Luis Rey Downs work tab gives her credit for. We’ll try to get by using just these three while preferring Willows Babe on top.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-El Huerfano; 3-Ike Walker
El Huerfano was out of his element in the Alysheba Stakes over a wet track in Kentucky last month but this second-level allowance field certainly appears within his abilities and we’re expecting the Miller-trained gelding to regain his best form. He gets in light with the switch to Roman, sports a recent bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs and is overdue for a win. Ike Walker likes to lay back and then produce a good kick and could be very effective in a field with plenty of speed. With three prior wins over the Santa Anita main track, the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained gelding is a serious contender. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to El Huerfano.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 4-Pretty N Cool; 5-Bendable
The Desert Stormer Stakes drew just five entrants, so there’s not much we can do other than use the two main players in our rolling exotics. Pretty N Cool won the Las Flores Stakes-G3 over this track and distance in March and then lost little when runner-up to By the Moon (who came back to win again) in the Vagrancy H. over a wet track at Belmont Park last month. She impressed with an easy half mile drill (see workout) just five days ago to indicate she’s right on edge. Bendable launches a comeback for trainer Richard Mandella and couldn’t have looked much better than she did in a six furlong breeze (see workout) earlier this month. She’s a fit on speed figures, has proven she can win fresh, and lands the cozy outside draw.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Café Flavor; 6-French Getaway; 7-Klondike Creek
First-level allowance marathoners compete over a mile and one-half on grass in the fifth race, the first leg of the Pick-6. Café Flavor won for fun vs. straight maidens up north and might be good enough to successfully handle this class hike. We’re expecting he’ll enjoy the trip and with the switch to red hot riding Gary Stevens this lightly-raced son of Einstein might be able to pull off a surprise at 8-1 on the morning line. Klondike Creek, a sharp runner-up over this course and distance two runs back, won’t have to run much better today to get the money. If left alone on the lead, the son of Gio Ponti might take control early and never look back. French Getaway, third in the same race Klondike Creek finished second in, has rising speed figures and with another forward move could wear down the leaders in the final furlong. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Café Flavor on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Cupid’s Beau
Cupid’s Beau demolished a maiden $20,000 claiming field last month with a career top speed figure and today drops into a $12,5000 non-winners of two affair today where he’ll most likely be the odds-on favorite (he’s 8/5 on the morning line). Drawn comfortably outside, the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding retains bug boy Roman and looks like a logical no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Stay Glad; 2-Dream Is Overrated; 5-Get Em Up Scout; 7-Suit of Lights
Maiden state-bred juveniles occupy the seventh race in a five furlong dash that looks wide open and requites a significant spread in rolling exotic play. Stay Glad flashed some promise in his debut and should move forward with that effort behind him, though we’re concerned about his lack of early speed from the rail at this distance. Dream is Overrated seemed to find his best stride late in his debut, should benefit from the outing, and gets an extra half-furlong to work with today. His Miyadi stablemate, the first-timer Get Em Up Scout, shows a slow, unimpressive work tab but lands Flavien Prat, and maidens from this barn generally run better than they work, so we’ll toss him in. Suit of Lights is one of those dangerous San Luis Rey Downs shippers from the Miller barn that might have some talent, so he’s worth including as well.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Girl Downstairs; 5-Wealthy Shipman; 10-Moonless Sky
The eighth race is a competitive starter’s handicap over a mile on grass for $25,000 level fillies and mares. Moonless Sky must pack 128 pounds as the high weight but she seems good enough to concede the poundage based on her rising numbers and her perfect record (3-for-3) over the local lawn. Kent Desormeaux knows her well and stays aboard; he’ll have her rolling in the final furlong. Girl Downstairs switches to Corey Nakatani and should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position. Her form over the Santa Anita turf course is excellent, her numbers are solid, and the veteran continues to look good in the morning. Wealthy Shipman, first off the claim for Hollendorfer, is fast on figures and looks dangerous right back after easily handling a $25,000 group last month (a win that made her eligible for this race). She’s never been worse than second in four starts over this turf course. We’ll use all three in rolling exotic play and then have an extra ticket or two keying Moonless Sky on top.
RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Karma King; 7-Honor and Courage; 8-Saint Dermot
The ninth race is another very difficult affair, a first-level allowance main track miler. Honor and Courage finally broke his maiden in his seventh career start after knocking on the door several times; the Hollendorfer-trained sophomore is a fit on figures and with another forward move could be hard to contain. Show Me Da Lute, off the track since finishing far back in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, has trained like he’s fit and ready (see workout) for Bob Baffert, and because he was a debut winner we know he can fire fresh. Karma King, hasn’t been out since last summer but has been burning up the track at Los Alamitos for trainer Brian Koriner and could be a better type this time around. Never off the board in six starts over the Santa Anita main track (with three wins), the son of Pure Prize likely will try gate-to-wire tactics.
RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 10-She’sashocker; 11-Breath
The finale is a downhill turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares that may boil down to She’sashocker and Breathe. The former was beaten a nose over this course and distance last month with a career top figure and if she can run back to that race today she’ll be tough to deny. Breathe, away since last August but training like she’s fit and ready for John Sadler, lands Prat and will leave from the comfortable outside post. She earned speed figures last year that fit at this level but she’s unproven on grass. If she takes to the lawn, look out.
Sunday, June 18, 2017
Due to uncertain track conditions, there will be no wagering strategies for Belmont Park today.