Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 30, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, April 30, 2017


RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Single: 1-Silent Movies

The Sunday opener is a starter’s allowance turf miler that doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value. It’s a race that we really don’t want to get too involved in, but for rolling exotic players, Silent Movies is logically the one to beat. The John Sadler-trained gelding missed by a half-length over this course and distance with a career top speed figure last month, has trained solidly since, and should have another forward move in him. However, he’ll be a short price (he’s 2-1 on the morning line) and he’s basically a need-the-lead type in a race with other front-running speed in the field. There are better wagering opportunities later on.


​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-Lob City

Lob City is 8/5 on the morning line in this starter handicap for fillies and mares and could easily go lower in the five-runner affair. A horse-for-course (she’s hit the board in seven of eight career starts over the Santa Anita main track) and in good recent form for trainer Gary Sherlock, the daughter of Temple City won a similar event two races back in strong fashion and need only run back to that effort today. She must, however, pack 125 lbs. This is another race that might be best left alone.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-St. Reno

The third looks like another race in which a short priced favorite should dominate. St. Reno is fast on figures but is dropping to $16,000 (nw-3) following a facile score for $25,000 (nw-2), so clearly Sadler is offering him for sale. Today’s pace scenario looks fairly comfortable so if the son of Awesome Again has one good one left he’ll probably score again. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Monterey Shale; 8-Royal Rebel

Bottom-rung maiden-claimers meet over a middle distance in the fourth race, yet another affair that offers little wagering interest. Monterey Shale just failed at 40 cents on the dollar and was claimed by Gary Stute, and returns at the same level but stretches him out today while retaining Rafael Bejarano. An 11-race maiden, he’s actually better routing than sprinting so maybe he can make the lead today and keep on going. But do you trust him? Royal Rebel is re-equipped with blinkers after finishing a non-threatening fourth in a similar event earlier this month. He has a few prior efforts that aren’t too bad, so this 10-race maiden probably is the one to fear most. Tread lightly.


RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade:

Use: 1-Ceeme Run Wild; 3-Mining Diamonds; 5-That’s a Lady

The fifth race is a two-turn entry-level main track allowance event for fillies and mares that drew six runners, each of whom have a decent look. We’ll use three in our rolling exotics and hope to get by. Ceeme Run Wild lands the rail and could find herself in a good stalking, ground-saving spot. On pure numbers she’s a strong fit; however, she has to prove she can be just as effective on dirt as she has been on grass. That’s a Lady may be the best of the closers, having finished a strong second vs. similar in her most recent outing. She could use some help up front today. Mining Diamonds stretches out after a nice comeback sprint try earlier this month; she has enough early speed to make the running and if not pressured early could take this field a long way. We’ll give a very slight edge on top to Ceeme Run Wild.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Estrechada; 2-Place des Vosges; 8-Evo Campo

Local distaff turf specialists get a rare chance to compete at 12 furlongs in the featured Santa Barbara S.-G3. Place des Vosges was very impressive winning her last pair over the local lawn and acts like the marathon trip will be within her range. In her present form, we like her to continue her winning ways. Estrechada ran well to be second over this course and distance in the Astra S. in February and a similar effort today puts her in the picture once again. Evo Campo captured the Pleasantly Perfect at a mile and one-half last summer before being turned out; she certainly had a right to need her comeback race in the Santa Ana S.-G2 last month and could find herself on the front end here if no other speed materializes.


RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Candy Ruler; 8-Powder

Candy Ruler tipped her hand in a solid debut when third despite a slow start and a wide trip and is very likely to improve a bunch today for a barn whose stats with second-time starters are quite strong. We suspect she’ll go a bit lower than her 3-1 morning line. Powder is bred to be very quick (Slew’s Tiznow) and has done some very good work in the a.m. for Ian Kruljac. She’s dangerous. Candy Ruler is strictly the one to beat but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Grazen Sky; 4-Texas Two Step

The eighth race is a six furlong sprint for second-level allowance older horses. Texas Two Step has the route-to-sprint angle we like and speed figures that are good enough to win. The pace scenario projects to be slower than normal and that promotes the stalking/pressing style that Texas Two Step employs. Grazen Sky was out-footed in the Los Angeles S.-G3 two weeks ago but is wheeled back on short rest in this softer spot and should be very competitive. He’ll be running on late. We’ll prefer Texas Two Step on top but use both in rolling exotic play.


RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Heavenly Thought; 2-Particleacelerator; 4-Fortune of War

The finale is a turf grab bag for maidens over a mile. Trainer Neil Drysdale unveils a very promising War Front filly in Heavenly Thought, who tackles the boys after failing to draw into a race restricted to her own sex. She lands leading jockey Flavien Prat while landing the favorable rail, and if she performs to her recent workouts she absolutely can act with these. At 10-1 on the morning line, she’s worth consideration in the straight pool. Particleacelerator has rising speed figures and has been working lights out for his first outing since late February. The son of Cyclotron is likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Fortune of War, in the money in his last pair and shortening from a mile and one-eighth, should be running on strongly late. All three should be used in rolling exotic play.




Sunday, April 30, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Rally Cry; 4-Diversify


​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Mission Trip


RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Mongo Nation; 4-Big Handsome; 5-Delphinia

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Summer House; 9-Magsamelia


​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1a-Army Mule; 3-Wage Acceleration; 6-Peace Speaker

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-West Hills Giant; 8-Excluded; 11-Tiz a Chance

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Liattlemissbusiness; 3-Jcs American Dream; 4-Flick of an Eye


​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Miss Ella; 5-Fair Point

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: A-

Single: 1-Homewood Field





Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 30, 2017

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