The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Saturday, May 13, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Nap Lajoie; 2-Desert Law; 7-Mor Candy
The Saturday opener is a state-bred maiden sprint down the hillside course with plenty of question marks to deal with. Desert Law (10-1 morning line) has trained well enough on dirt to indicate ability (see workout) and with his pedigree the son of Desert Code absolutely should love turf. In a wide open fray, he seems as good as any and at the price he’s worth embracing. Mor Candy flashed speed before weakening in his debut but should be fitter and tougher today, and with More Than Ready on the bottom side of is pedigree he’s another that should move up grass. Edwin Maldonado stays aboard for Phil D’Amato. Nap Lajoie is improving with racing and should be prominent throughout under Flavien Prat. If he takes to the turf, the son of Into Mischief will be in the fray throughout. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press in the straight pool with Desert Law.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Omega Moon
Omega Moon has trained like a rocket ship for Bob Baffert (see workout) and appears fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. The son of Malibu Moon brought $500,000 as a yearling and is highly regarded, to say the least. At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single in this maiden special weight extended sprint.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-American Pastime
American Pastime won so impressively in his debut that we highlighted his performance in our Black Book (see segment), and a similar effort today should be good enough for a repeat win by the Bob Hess, Jr.-trained son of Tapizar. However, he’s 6/5 on the morning line and may go odds-on, so the best we can do is make him a no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Big League; 4-Arms Runner; 7-Cistron
The fourth race is the Desert Code Stakes, a downhill dash for 3-year-olds that looks fairly contentious even with just seven entrants. Arms Runner graduated at first asking over this course and distance and did it in style despite appearing a tad green. We’re expecting the son of Overdriven to move forward considerably with that experience behind him so we’ll put him slightly on top over his Peter Miller stablemate Big League, a speedy colt who was in a tad tough in his comeback when a weakening third in the San Pedro Stakes in his comeback last month. In this affair the son of Speightstown might be the speed of the speed. Cistron was game in victory when capturing the two-turn, main track Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn Park last month but can sprint and turf as well, so he’s a solid fit right back. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Arms Runner on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-American Anthem; 6-Aristocratic
The fifth race is the Laz Barrera Stakes for 3-year-olds over seven furlongs. American Anthem was extra sharp in a recent a.m. drill just five days ago (see workout) and seems primed to regain his best form in his first sprint since breaking his maiden in his debut last summer at Del Mar. The rail is no bargain but this colt may be good enough, no matter what. Aristocratic lands the cozy outside post and will be tough if he repeats the quality of his San Pedro Stakes win last month. That victory came when he was trained by Doug O’Neill; today he makes his first start since being transferred to the Simon Callaghan barn. We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play with preference on top to American Anthem.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Gosofar; 10-Kings River King
The sixth race is a state-bred maiden special weight turf sprint that looks like an ideal spot for Kings River King. He’s done everything right in the a.m. for trainer Kenny Black (see workout) and looks live first crack out of the box, though his pedigree suggests he’ll need a distance of ground before showing his best. Even so, we’re expecting the son of Acclamation to be rolling in the final furlong and be along in time en route to bigger and better things down the road. Gosofar seems the best of the known element and is worth using as well. The Adam Kitchingman-trained gelding, second under similar conditions last month, has respectable speed figures and should be prominent throughout.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Informality; 7-Magic Taste; 8-Zarqa Star
Restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the seventh race, with Informality rating top billing simply because he’s been stuck at this condition for a much shorter time than the other main contenders. With just seven career starts, the son of Informed has some upside the others don’t, and after finishing fourth in a fast, highly-rated race, he’ll welcome this considerably softer spot while gaining the services of Prat. We’ll also include Magic Taste and Zarqa Star on a few tickets in our rolling exotics. The former is an anemic 1-for-24 lifetime but usually hits the board and probably will so again today, while the latter returns to the main track and has a race two back that charts fairly well with these.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-My Boy Rudy; 9-Tanners Pride
The eighth race is a state-bred maiden $50,000 claiming main track sprint that doesn’t have a whole lot in it. My Boy Rudy has shown some ability in the morning for Mark Glatt (see workout) and really doesn’t have to be a world beater to act with these. At 8-1 on the morning line he offers wagering value for a clever outfit in a race begging to be won by a fresh face. Tanners Pride has chased home straight maiden foes in his first three career starts and should improve considerably against this company. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed but can finish a little bit and should be heard from in the final furlong. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring the much better priced My Boy Rudy on top.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 8-Salsita; 9-All That Heat; 12-Liar’s Smoker
The nightcap is a grass grab bag for optional/claiming fillies and mares over a mile on turf. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Salsita returns to her winning (and claimed) level for Jeff Mullins and the last time she faced this type of company she won gamely over this course and distance. Her recent form isn’t bad – she’s just been in a tad tough – and we’re curious to see what the addition of blinkers might do today. All That Heat was a convincing winner of a state-bred race at this trip recently and today tackles open company. On pure numbers she’s a fit and Prat should have her in the proper stalking position, ready to pounce when called upon. Liar’s Smoke captured a starter’s handicap at nine furlongs in March and loves to win races (7-for-21 lifetime) but is tad shy of where she needs to be in the speed figure department. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained mare has good tactical speed and probably is worth including somewhere at 10-1 on the morning line.
Saturday, May 13, 2017
Due to uncertain track conditions, there will be no Belmont Park wagering strategies today.