Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 21, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Saturday, October 21, 2017


RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Indavidualist

Forecast: Indavidualist, 7/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, is wheeled back on short rest while moving up just one notch on the class ladder following a highly-rated 9 ¾ length romp last week.  If he doesn’t bounce to the moon, he’ll win right back, but clearly offers no wagering value in a race that is probably best left alone (unless you think you can beat him).


​​RACE 2: Post 12:59 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Blame the Rider

Forecast: Blame the Rider was impressive in the OBS March Sale, where he previewed in 21 flat, and has looked good locally for O’Neill in a series of solid workouts without really being asked to show his true speed.  Bred to win early and catching what looks to be a moderate field of straight maiden juveniles, the son of the hot freshman stallion Jimmy Creed offers considerable wagering value at or near his morning line of 6-1.  Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

​RACE 3: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Spanish Hombre; 6-Conquest Sabre Cat; 7-General Ike

Forecast: In an open grass affair that requires a spread, we’ll go three deep and hope to get by.  Conquest Sabre Cat, first off the claim for Palma, likes this turf course (two wins in five starts) and should draft into an ideal second flight position.  He can turn it on late and there should be enough pace up front to compliment his style.  Spanish Hombre removes blinkers (always like this angle), retains Bejarano, and remains above his claim level for Baltas.  His record over the Santa Anita lawn hardly is inspiring (4-0-0-0), but a recent best-of-the-morning five furlong work indicates he’s on edge.  General Ike stretches out again after a solid runner-up effort down the hill, and if he can shake loose early he may take this field a very long way.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Willows Babe; 8-Le Chepis

Forecast: Willows Babe, runner-up in all four of her starts, has rising speed figures and should finally break through with a win, though at even money on the morning line she’ll not offer any wagering value whatsoever.  The Baltas-trained filly was more than nine lengths clear of the rest in her most recent outing and not much more will be needed today.  Le Chepis is a first-timer by Super Saver with a couple of decent workouts on her resume but from a barn that hardly ever wins with debut runners.  She might be worth saving with on a ticket or two.

​RACE 5: Post 2:29 PT. Grade: X

Use: 7-Tribalist

Forecast: Tribalist was an unlucky loser in the Eddie D. Stakes last month; the hard-knocking Tribal Rule gelding was hounded by a loose horse through the lane and paid the price late, getting nailed in the final strides.  Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Tribal Rule can dictate this race while either on the lead or from a perfect stalking position outside.  We’ll make him a rolling exotic single, but at 9/5 on the morning line and certain to go lower he’ll probably not offer much value in the straight pool.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Shook; 7-Mischievous Song; 8-Fracas

Forecast: Fracas shows up in a claimer for the first time and though beaten as the choice in her most recent outing should make amends today while facing considerably lesser company.  She has numbers that are better than par for this level, so she really only has to worry about the new faces.  Mischievous Song is a first-timer with an okay work tab for Hofmans and has done enough the morning to be included in soft affair, while Shook has been prepared out of sight at San Luis Rey Downs for the clever D’Amato outfit and certainly won’t have to be any world beater to be competitive.  We’ll prefer Fracas on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Lambo Luxx

Forecast: In a race filled with question marks, we’re going to assume that Lambo Luxx is okay today (was pulled up in his last start) and the Carava-trained gelding seems well-placed to regain his winning form in this $12,500 extended sprint for older horses.  A tough-as-nails Vronsky gelding with four prior wins over the Santa Anita main track, he should settle in behind the leaders and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 6-1.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:06 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Pacific Wind; 3-La Force; 5-Spooky Woods

Forecast:  Spooky Woods has burned money in her last pair, hitting the board but failing to win as the favorite, and may not be one to trust (she’s a career 1-for-11 with seven seconds or thirds).  Freshened and training well for Spawr, the daughter of Ghostzapper can be expected to fire her best shot, which probably will be good enough to beat this entry-level allowance field.  Pacific Wind tries dirt for the first time; if she can duplicate her grass form she’ll be a major contender but that might be a big if as she’s always struck us a turf specialist.  We’ll toss her in just in case.  After racing on turf throughout her career, La Force showed she could act on dirt in her first attempt when finishing a strong second in a nice overnight race at Los Alamitos last month.  She earned a career top speed figure in doing so and has trained very well since.


 ​RACE 9: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Polished; 10-Temple Princess; 12-Paved

Forecast: This looks like a fairly decent race for maiden juvenile fillies over a mile on turf.  Polished is a Kitten’s Joy first-timer from the Baltas barn showing a solid series of main track workouts, including a bullet five furlong drill in 1:00 1/5 last month at Del Mar.  We have to believe she’ll be blossom on turf, and at 8-1 on the morning line under Smith she looks very appealing.  Paved is another intriguing debut runner, though her extreme outside post does her no favors.  She’s worked well enough for Mandella to indicate ability and with Cozzene on the bottom of her pedigree she’s certainly bred to excel on grass.  Temple Princess tipped her hand with an excellent debut performance at Del Mar last month, finishing third but beaten only a neck while earning a solid figure.  She’s likely to produce a forward move for a barn that hits at a respectable 18% with second-timers.


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 21, 2017

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