Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Sunday, October 22, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, October 22, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Irish Goodbye; 2-Supreme Venture; 5-Waldorf

 Forecast: The Sunday opener is a starter’s allowance downhill turf sprint that looks wide open and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Waldorf may be as good as any; the lightly-raced Wilburn gelding has been two-turning ever since his debut and may really appreciate this turn back in trip.  His route numbers make him competitive and Stevens should have him rolling in the final furlong.  Supreme Venture tries grass and will race without blinkers for the first time; the Forestry gelding also remains protected by Miller in a sign of confidence and offers long shot value at 10-1 on the morning line.  Irish Goodbye is another that has the route-to-sprint angle but his lack of early speed will make his task difficult.  We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Hot Sean; 3-The Critical Way; 5-Edwards Going Left

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this six-runner allowance sprint but otherwise pass the race.  Edwards Going Left was overmatched in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship earlier this month but isn’t today, so we expect the lightly-raced gelding to snap back to his best form.  A bullet half mile workout since raced indicates he’s still doing well.  Hot Sean launches a comeback for Baffert and has trained well enough to deserve consideration.  He was graded stakes-placed as a two-year-old and has shown he can be effective sprinting or routing.  The Critical Way is undefeated in two starts, including a win in a state-bred affair at Penn National in June.  He’s a fit on speed figures but has a sketchy work tab, so we’ll save with him in rolling exotic play but only on a ticket or two.

​RACE 3: Post 1:31 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Chatty; 2-Secret Spice

Forecast: Chatty graduated like a nice prospect at Los Alamitos last month and earned a speed figure that makes her tough right back.  She should have enough early zip from the rail to get up inside and establish or press the pace from the get-go.  Secret Spice crushed maidens earlier this month in good style, but didn’t run particularly fast.  We’ll see what she’s made of today.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Chatty.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Hottie; 7-Kencumin

Forecast: Hootie ran like a short horse in his first start in nine months at Del Mar in August but managed to hit the board while earning a career top speed figure.  The Mike McCarthy barn has strong stats with second-off-layoff runners, Espinoza stays aboard, and the son of Candy Ride has plenty of room for improvement while making just his fourth career start.  Kencumin missed by a head when facing a similar group last month; he’s a stretch runner that might appreciate more ground than he’s getting in this one mile affair but with some help up front he should be dangerous in the final furlong.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Mikenjane; 6-Hailey Rachele

Forecast: The fifth race is a substandard maiden special weight sprint for state-bred fillies.  The know element doesn’t impressive, so let’s look at a new face in Mikenjane from the Kenny Black barn.  She’s trained well enough to be competitive first crack out of the box, so at 7/2 on the morning she’s worth close consideration.  Hailey Rachele, in the money in three of four career starts, appears to be the likely pacesetter and could stick around a long time in a field that apparently doesn’t have a whole lot of early zip.  These are the two we’ll use, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Arrowsphere; 6-Twirling Apples

Forecast: Older maiden claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on turf in the first leg of the late Pick-4.  Twirling Apples stretches out for the first time while adding blinkers and should be in the thick of it throughout.  Her sprint form isn’t bad, Gutierrez stays aboard, and the barn is solid with stretch-out plays.  Arrowsphere is an eight-race maiden but has hit the board in all four of her starts over the Santa Anita turf course and is exiting a series of straight maiden events.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and projects to be on or near the lead throughout.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:35 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Papa Turf; 2-Los Borrachos; 3-Street Vision

Forecast: Street Vision earned a huge speed figure when winning a starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar two races back but was pitched too high vs. first-level allowance runners in his most recent start.  This is a realistic class drop to the $32,000 claiming ranks and the Glatt-trained son of Street Sense should return to his best form today while being reunited with “win rider” Baze.  Papa Turf moves up two notches after a sharp tally vs. $20,000 claiming foes here earlier this month.  If he can avoid trouble from the rail, the veteran gelding could be dangerous right back.  Los Borrachos gets a big break in the weights with the switch to a 10 lb. bug girl while seeking his third straight score in his first outing for new trainer Mullins.  His recent figures are fast, so we’re expecting another big effort.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while giving Street Vision a very slight nod on top.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:05 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Six Point Rock; 3-Spiritual Warrior; 8-Lovely Anzi

Forecast:  This is another competitive affair, this one for state-bred turf milers in the first-level allowance category.  Spiritual Warrior stretches out again and won his only prior two-turn event.  He’s a first-time gelding exiting a productive heat and with just three prior starts the D’Amato-trained 3-year-old certainly has plenty of room for improvement.  Lovely Anzi broke his maiden over a distance of ground on grass at Del Mar in late August while earning career top number, and not much better will be needed for a repeat score today.  It was his first under Bejarano, who stays aboard for Baltas.  Six Point Rack won a $50,000 claimer at Del Mar in late August with a nice number and is a legitimate contender right back.  Prat stays aboard and knows him well.  We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three with a slight preference on top to Spiritual Warrior.


​RACE 9: Post 4:37 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Southern Thunder; 6-Orejas

Forecast: Bottom-level maiden claimers meet at seven furlongs in the finale.  Southern Thunder is improving with racing, adds blinkers, retains Pedroza, and appears to have a proper style for this extended sprint distance.  The Mullins-trained gelding should continue to improve with experience and lands a likely spot to graduate today.  Orejas also is worth using in rolling exotic play; he’s a second-off-a-claim for Baltas and projects to fall into a soft pace-forcing position and have every chance in a weak affair.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Sunday, October 22, 2017

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