Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Sunday, October 29, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, October 29, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:15 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Caribou Club; 2-Allaboutmike; 3-Hitters Park

Forecast: The opener is a competitive dash down the hill for first-level allowance older runners.  Allaboutmike has the route-to-sprint angle that is so effective on this course and that, combined with his proven effectiveness under these conditions (two prior wins) makes the Miller-trained gelding the horse to beat.  Lopez, an excellent speed rider, should have this son of Zensational on or near the lead throughout.  Hitters Park returns to turf, has the proper style for the course, and looks like a major player despite low profile connections.  At the price he’s worth including.  Caribou Club freshened since August and making his first start as a gelding, turns back to a sprint and may be most effective going short.  He’s a strong fit on speed figures and should be able to settle into a good second flight, stalking position and have every chance.  We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Allaboutmike.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:45 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Draft Pick; 2-Instilled Regard; 3-Canadian Game

Forecast: Instilled Regard has the classic two-sprints-and-stretch out pattern, rising speed figures, and strong company lines.  As a son of Arch, he should enjoy the extra ground.  Draft Pick, a solid third in his debut, is likely to improve with experience based on pedigree and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-prompting, ground-saving trip from his inside draw.  Canadian Game has improving numbers, adds blinkers, and has worked well since his last race.  Another forward move can be expected.  Let’s use all three while preferring Instilled Regard on top.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:15 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Red Livy; 7-Coalinga Hills; 9-Midnight Swinger

Forecast: Midnight Swinger appears well-spotted for a major effort in this starter’s allowance downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares.  A good runner-up in a fast heat in her only prior outing over this course and distance, the Glatt-trained filly lands the cozy outside post and figures to draft into an ideal stalking position.  She’s reunited with “win rider” Van Dyke and is solid in the speed figure department.  Coalinga Hills beat maiden claimers in Hillside sprint earlier this month in clever fashion and could be this good with further improvement.  The number she earned in that race fits nicely at this level.  Red Livy could inherit the role as the controlling speed and if she can shake loose without pressure she may take this field a long way.  Midnight Swinger is the preferred top choice but all three should be included in your rolling exotics.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:45 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Plane Lucky

Forecast: Plane Lucky looks like the logical top pick and since it’s either her or anybody let’s take a stand and make the Baltas-trained filly a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race (she’s 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower).  The daughter of Lucky Pulpit takes a significant class drop but since she’s winless this year her appearance in a $20,000 claimer seems warranted.  First or second in four of five starts over the Santa Anita main track and reunited with Bejarano, who has won on her in the past, she should have no excuses.

​RACE 5: Post 2:18 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Texas Wedge; 2-Utah Ute; 3-Neighborhood Bully

Forecast: The winner of this starter optional claiming sprint for juveniles is likely to be one of the first three favorites, so this is a pass race other than to include all three in rolling exotic play.  Texas Wedge was out of his element in the FrontRunner Stakes but will fit very nicely in this spot with a repeat of his sharp tally vs. maiden claimers in his debut last July at Del Mar.  He’s 6/5 on the morning line and probably deserves to be, rail and all.  Utah Ute just won in very game fashion with a career top speed figure in a similar affair and a repeat of that effort puts him in the thick of things right back.  Neighborhood Bully was below form in his most recent outing but his race before last – a seven length maiden claiming win at Del Mar – charts very well here and makes him dangerous.


​​​RACE 6: Post 2:49 PT. Grade:

Use: 3-Oiseau de Guerre; 8-Schooley; 9-Towards the Light

Forecast: This grass grab bag down the hill for older maidens requires a spread; we’ll go three deep using three first-time geldings.  Oiseau de Guerre, once well-regarded, makes his West Coast debut in the first sprint of his career and we suspect he’ll thoroughly enjoy today’s conditions.  His numbers back east in route races actually were pretty solid, good enough to beat this field if repeated.  Schooley, away since last November, showed a bit of promise in a pair of Bay Area outings and could easily be a much better type this time around for new trainer Miller.  Those recent San Luis Rey Downs workouts catch the eye.  Towards the Light exits a couple of tougher races that earned him earned decent speed figures.  If he handles the course he can be a player at 8-1 on the morning line.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:19 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Hope She Will; 2-Took the High Road; 4-Tiffany Diamond

Forecast: Hope She Will may be as good as any in this main track miler affair for maiden $30,000 claiming fillies and mares.  The Headley-trained filly has numbers that fit, a good inside draw, and a bit more upside with just four career starts than most of the others.  She’s 6-1 on the morning line and that’s not bad.  Took the High Road chased tougher straight maidens in her debut with posing a threat, but her number was okay and she seems sure to improve vs. this much softer company with a race under her belt.  Tiffany Diamond stretches out for the first time and has the kind of early speed that could make her the controlling speed.  Pedroza stays aboard, knows her well, and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Hope She Will on top.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:49 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Cal Cal Li Gowchis; 6-Black Tie ‘n Tails; 9-One I’m Running To

Forecast:  This is an unusually competitive affair for restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers at five and one-half furlongs.  One I’m Running To may hold a very slight edge on top; the Glatt-trained gelding has numbers that fit, has been first or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita main track, and shortens a furlong to his preferred trip.  Black Tie ‘n Tails launches a comeback for Miller (superb stats with layoff runners) and has shown the ability to fire fresh.  He’s more than good enough off his best form and likes this track.  Cal Cal Li Gowchis has plenty of zip from the rail and will take them as far as he can.  All three should be used in your rolling exotics.


 ​RACE 9: Post 4:19 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Kathy’s Song; 2-Miss Southern Miss; 5-Chocolate Coated

Forecast: This is a deep, tough race, and offers several possibilities at good prices.  Miss Southern Miss had a nice prep down the hill in the Unzip Me Stakes in her first outing since February and should get serious today.  Her only prior two-turn grass race over this course was a highly impressive win in the Surfer Girl Stakes as a 2-year-old and we’re expecting the daughter of More Than Ready to run back to that race today.  Kathy’s Song stretches out again to her preferred trip and should draft into an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking position from her rail post.  A repeat of her race before last might be good enough.  Chocolate Coated was visually quite impressive beating a lesser field down the hill earlier this month and her pedigree says she should be even better two-turning (she won going a mile at Del Mar).  The rapidly developing daughter of Candy Ride could easily be this good despite the class hike.  We’ll prefer Miss Southern Miss on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.


RACE 10: Post 4:49 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Stealth Drone; 10-Marley’s Freedom

Forecast: Marley’s Freedom earned a big number when breaking her maiden at Del Mar in her first start in 11 months and has trained splendidly since.  From her comfortable outside post, the daughter of Blame can dictate the race while either on the pace or from a stalking position.  She’s 5/2 on the morning line and we’d be happy to take that right now.  Stealth Drone is worth using as  saver on a ticket or two; she’s a first-off-the claim for Mulhall with three prior wins over the Santa Anita main track and removes blinker (like that angle) while switching to Talamo.


RACE 11: Post 5:19 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-An Eddie Surprise; 7-Fantastic Chloe; 10-Carrie’s Success

Forecast: The finale is an intriguing slalom event for juvenile fillies.  Fantastic Chloe turns back from a mile after facing some tough rivals in her debut and seems very likely to improve a bunch for a barn that boats superb stats with second-time starters.  Baze stays aboard and should have this daughter of Unusual Heat rolling in the final furlong.  Carrie’s Success isn’t particularly fast on figures but she finished second in her first two career starts and has a right to continue her improving pattern for D’Amato.  We can’t say she’s bred to improve on turf – she’s not – but who knows?  An Eddie Surprise is a first-timer breaking from the rail – not a recipe for success – but she’s trained pretty well at San Luis Rey Downs for O’Neill and has turf bloodlines.  At 6-1 on the morning she’s worth tossing in.


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Sunday, October 29, 2017

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