Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, October 5, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Billy Big; 4-Cleanup Hitter; 7-It’s The Ice

Forecast: Cleanup Hitter is unproven on turf but removes blinkers and retains Desormeaux.   With only seven career starts he is somewhat unexposed, and his career top speed figure was accomplished around two turns so this stretch out in trip can be viewed favorably. At 8-1 on the morning line the Bob Hess-trained gelding offers a bit of value. Billy Big usually gives you a decent late kick and at this level is a major contender. There should be enough pace in here to compliment his late-running style. D’Amato’s other entrant is It’s The Ice, who is exiting a series of much tougher races and should appreciate this drop into a claimer for the first time in his career. He’s winless in seven starts over this turf course and hasn’t won a race since September of 2015 in England, but on numbers he’s a fit so we’ll toss him in as well.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Utah Ute; 5-Psycho Dar; 6-Neighborhood Bully

Forecast: Neighborhood Bully earned a strong speed figure when dismantling a maiden- claiming field last month at Del Mar and in a sign of confidence is protected today in a starter optional claimer. He seems most effective when stalking and pouncing and should enjoy that kind of trip again today. Psycho Dar graduated at first asking in what has proven to be a productive race and won’t really have to improve much to be a strong factor right back. Utah Ute shows up in a claimer for the first time and rates a look off his highly rated maiden special weight victory at Los Alamitos two runs back. He was overmatched in the Graduation Stakes in his most recent outing but isn’t today. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying Neighborhood Bully.

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Empire Ruler; 9-Orejas

Forecast: The Pick-6 begins in the third race, bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint. We’ll double the race and hope to get by, but if you find the need to spread, go right ahead. Orejas, claimed in his last pair at Del Mar, shows up for the first time for Baltas (superior stats with this angle) and seems certain to produce a forward move for his new connections. Even a repeat of his race before last is probably good enough to win, but in this league, he – and everybody else – is tough to trust. Empire Ruler drops to $20,000 and will enjoy this softer company. The Ellis-trained colt has numbers that fit, retains Bejarano, and will be heard from in the final furlong.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-The Street Fighter; 4-Gigantis

Forecast: The Street Fighter has plenty going for him in this stronger-than-par entry-level allowance extended sprint. The Headley-trained colt has been beaten as the choice in his last pair, but both defeats were in strong, highly rated and productive races, so we won’t be too harsh. He has the proper style for seven furlongs and a prior win over the track, but at 6/5 on the morning line the son of Street Boss offers little in the way of wagering value. Gigantis is plenty quick but is drawn just outside the other logical speed (Getoffmyback) and might employ stalking tactics today. He’s not as fast on numbers as The Street Fighter but his three-wins-in-five-starts over the Santa Anita main track must be considered a major plus.

​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Wonderful Lie; 2-Not too Shiny; 6-Del Mar Ann

Forecast: This grass grab bag down the hill for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares has several possibilities, so a spread in rolling exotic play probably is the way to go. Del Mar Ann has the route-to-sprint angle that works so well under these conditions, and with proven winning form over this course and distance the veteran mare seems as good as any. Not too Shabby has three prior wins over the Santa Anita lawn and should regain her best form with this drop below her claim level. Pedroza projects to have her within striking range throughout. Wonderful Lie turns back in trip (you know how much we like that angle), so we’re expecting improvement. The Hollendorfer-trained mare always has preferred to run second or third rather than win, but if you go back a few races you’ll find numbers that make her dangerous.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Helen’s Tiger; 7-Carrie’s Success

Forecast: Carrie’s Success was extremely well meant at Los Alamitos in her debut last month but took awhile to get going and then found her best stride too late, winding up a willing second. She adds blinkers today, so we’re expecting the daughter of Successful Appeal to flash a bit more early speed. This is a group she appears capable of beating. Helen’s Tiger earned a career top number when finishing fourth – beaten just a length – in the Barretts Debutante at Los Alamitos last month in her first start in blinkers. Back with maidens today, the daughter of Smiling Tiger will be dangerous if she can avoid trouble from the rail. We’ll prefer Carrie’s Success on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Mr Vargas; 9-Cheekaboomboom

Forecast: Mr Vargas has rapidly rising speed figures and looked terrific graduating at Los Alamitos last month with a monster number against a decent field. His excellent runner-up try over the Del Mar turf two races back provides confidence that he’ll handle this tricky downhill turf course. Additionally, the son of Midshipman looks like the controlling speed. Cheekaboomboom is worth tossing in on a ticket or two as a saver; the Eurton-trained gelding is genuine, consistent, and versatile, and has run extremely well over this course in the past. He’ll need some help up front but should be rolling in the final furlong.

 

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Reverend Al; 10-Decarchy Dawn

Forecast: Decarchy Dawn seems well placed to graduate in this maiden $50,000 state-bred sprint. He’s a first time gelding, adds blinkers, retains Desormeaux, and most recently finished an excellent second in a fast, highly rated and productive race. Reverend Al, who wound up a close third right behind ‘Dawn in that mid-August event at Del Mar and then produced a forward move when a good runner-up (while more than five clear of the rest) at Los Alamitos last month, should continue his improving pattern today. With the switch to Roman, the son of Lucky Pulpit projects to be a strong factor throughout.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017

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