“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Vibez
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Persia; 4-Spirit Rules.
Forecast: Vibez has trained like a fairly quick filly for her debut, and in this grass grab bag for juvenile fillies the Peter Eurton-trained daughter of Collected seems as good as any. Her sire has done well with turf runners so far (as a son of City Zip, this is not unexpected) and it’ll be interesting to see if this filly runs even better than she works in her first taste of the sod. At 3-1 on the morning line, we’ll make her a win play and main punch in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Sweet Mother Mary; 1-Norah’s Princess
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Gila.
Forecast: Sweet Mother Mary makes her first start since being claimed out of her maiden winning race for $50,000 by trainer Doug O’Neill and today she stretches out to a distance she’s bred to handle. With another forward move, she can score right back and it’s encouraging that her new connections are protecting her in a sign of confidence. Norah’s Princess returns to dirt for the first time since May of last year and she did earn her diploma on the main track, so perhaps the switch in surface will bring out her best. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Torrealba and has recent speed figures that are good enough to win.
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RACE 3: Post: 4:04 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Rugelach
Backups/savers/Underneath: 2-Adelie.
Forecast: Rugelach is an Eastern invader seeking valuable ship and win money in this maiden claiming turf miler for fillies and mares in her first start in a seller and the Michael McCarthy-trained daughter of Twirling Candy brings with her speed figures that are more than sufficient to handle this modest assignment. She’s listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite. seems likely to go lower, and is a logical rolling exotic.
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RACE 4: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Renegade Princess; 5-Morning Addiction
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Agreetodisagree.
Forecast: Renegade Princess earned a career top speed figure when second at this level over this track and distance in late July and nothing much more should be required to win this $16,000 main track miler. The daughter of Jeranimo projects to settle into a comfortable pace stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Morning Addiction is the committed front runner in the field and will take them as far as she can. A three time winner (from six career starts) over the Del Mar dirt track, she moves up from the bottom rung ($8,000) but this group really isn’t that much tougher.
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RACE 5: Post: 5:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Brandon’smylawyer
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Freedom Flyer; 4-Canoodling.
Forecast: Prototype turf sprinter Brandon’smylawyer makes her first start since November for new trainer (and red hot) Peter Eurton and has shown the ability to fire fresh in the past, so we’re expecting a big effort in this five furlong grass dash for third level allowance fillies and mares. The work tab is solid and healthy, and with the presence of top jockey Juan Hernandez the daughter of Astern seems the solid choice. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and strong push in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 5:37 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Poetica
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Poetica was more than four lengths clear of the rest in an excellent comeback outing earlier this meeting (and her first start since chasing home Faiza in her debut last November), one that if repeated today should make her very difficult to beat in this extended maiden sprint for fillies and mares. The Peter Eurton-trained daughter of Speightstown shows a couple of easy breezes in the interim to tick her over so at 5/2 on the morning line (and certain to go lower) we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 6:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Unwritten Code
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Unwritten Code has won her last five starts but she actually regressed according to her speed figures in her most recent race in early March and was wisely given time off after a series of hard, taxing efforts. She returns with a solid series of short but quick drills to have her fit and ready, and from her rail draw she’ll have no choice but to bust out and gain control from the break, something that she is more than capable of doing. In a five furlong turf dash that appears to lack effective late speed, let’s go with the Jorge Periban-trained filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.
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RACE 8: Post: 6:39 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Cryptoholic; 9-Noble Union; 4-Son of Thunder
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The finale is a bottom-rung maiden $20,000 seller over a mile for older horses. None of these are trustworthy, but Cryptoholic shows up at this level for the first time and seems sure to be highly competitive based on his numbers and the company lines he’s seen in recent races. He’s raced on dirt only once (his debut), but we wouldn’t think the surface switch should be an issue. Noble Union, away since February of 2022, returns at the bottom as a first time gelding and may have found his friends. He was never all that much, but against this group he’s a fit based on his prior numbers. Son of Thunder is another big class dropper trying to find his level. He’s had 11 chances, but never against a field this soft.
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