“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Top Gun Tommy; 1-Doo Wop Don
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Top Gun Tommy arrives from the East seeking ship-and-win bonus purse money in this modest $10,000 claiming sprint for older horses and will outclass this field if he has at least one good one left. The big class dropper now in the Jeff Mullins barn has mostly been a middle distance performer throughout his career but against this group he should be just fine at this six furlong trip. The local workouts aren’t flashy, but the pattern is steady and should have him fit enough in his first start since early June. For protection, you may want to include Doo Wop Don on your ticket. He’s back at his winning level in his second start off a layoff and always has been a fairly consistent sort (first or second in 12 of 26 career starts). If he can secure a good trip form his rail post, the Dialed In gelding should make some noise late.
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RACE 2: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Soho; 9-Avoir
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Soho is a first timer from the John Sadler showing a string of strong works that should make her fit and ready for a winning performance first crack out of the box. The $625,000 yearling purchase by City of Light is bred to like grass on the dam’s side, and if she runs to her main track drills in this five furlong dash she should be hard to deny. She is listed at 5-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower. Avoir finished second in a fast, highly rated dash over this course and distance in her debut last month and on paper clearly looks the best of those that have run. The barn has strong stats with the second times starter angle and picks up leading rider Juan Hernandez. Preference on top goes to Soho but both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 4:04 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Havoc
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Havoc is a first-off-the-claim play for Kristin Mulhall after finishing a strong third in a similar maiden $50,000 seller last month, and not much improvement will be required to handle this soft task. Although failing at 3/5 after pressing the pace and then losing his steam close home, the son of Sir Prancealot removes blinkers (love this angle), has worked nicely since raced, and should appreciate this shortening in trip to five furlongs. In an empty affair, let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 4: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Mystic Flyer; 6-Stamp My Passport; 8-Dont Fight the Fed
Backups/savers: 1-Nauvoo.
Forecast: Here’s a challenging race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Mystic Flyer represents a reasonable gamble at 6-1 on the morning line in this state-bred allowance optional claiming main track miler for older horses. This will be his first try around two turns, and we’ve always believed that the first time is always the best time for a stretch out play for a gelding bred to run long and adding blinkers for the first time. The Michael McCarthy barn has solid stats with this angle, and it would not be surprising to see this son of Danzing Candy inherit an ideal pace stalking trip. On pure numbers, he’s right there with these. Stamp My Passport has solid form at this level and should be in the fray throughout. He finished three lengths clear of the rest when second over this track and distance last month and is lightly raced with further improvement possible. Dont Fight the Fed graduated in gate-to-wire style last month while earning a good number, but likely will be relegated to a stalking role with other speed types drawn inside. He’s shown he can do that, and with speed figures rising with each outing the Nyquist colt is a major player and a “must use.”
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RACE 5: Post: 5:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bajan Bashert; 1-Sand to Sea
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Bajan Bashert stretches out to a mile following a pair of solid sprint efforts over the local lawn in this state-bred maiden special weight affair for older fillies and mares. She projects to have a strong pace presence from the start under top rider Juan Hernandez for a trainer that has superior stats with this angle (27%, powerful ROI) and seems set for a career top performance. The Mark Glatt-trained filly offers good value at 4-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Sand to Sea missed by a head sprinting on dirt in a sharp performance last month and today tries two new things (two turns, grass) in just her second career outing. She’s guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail and perhaps a role as the controlling speed as well. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main push going to Bajan Bashert.
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RACE 6: Post: 5:37 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Lord Prancealot; 5-Last Call London; 6-Mici’s Express.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This year’s edition of the I’m Smokin Stakes is basically a replay of the recent Graduation Stakes for California-bred juveniles as it features the first three finishers of that race that hit the wire within a length of each. So, which one will improve the most? Lord Prancealot is undefeated in two outings and is the quickest of the group, but today must navigate an extra half furlong after barely surviving at five and one-half furlongs last time out. Last Call London didn’t get the best of trips, finished strongly, but simply ran out of room when falling a head short. Mici’s Express, third but closing fastest of all, seems to have found his niche as a late-running sprinter and could easily wear down the leaders late. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, all three should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 6:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Impec; 4-Roscoe Village; 2-Zona Verde
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This grass grab bag for maiden juvenile fillies offers several possibilities, some at very good prices. Impec is a nicely bred daughter of Siyouni with a useful series of workouts that should have her fit enough for a strong effort in her debut. She was visually pleasing in a solid gate work Sept. 3 while displaying pretty good speed, so at 12-1 on the morning line the John Sadler-trained Irish-bred may be worth a flyer. Roscoe Village, third over this course and distance in a similar affair in late July, has a steadily improving pattern and should produce another forward move. She’s likely to draft into comfortable second flight early position and have every chance from there. Willa T has trained reasonably well for Tim Yakteen and certainly has the pedigree (Oscar Performance) to move up a ton on turf. We have a feeling she’s a bit better than her morning line of 8-1 would suggest.
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RACE 8: Post: 6:39 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Danzing Cat; 1-Big Novel; Diamonds Danzing.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Danzing Cat lost a heartbreaker to stable mate She’s Bulletproof in a similar state-bred first level allowance main track sprint last month in a race that produced a career top speed figure and with another forward move today at this extended sprint she should be able to regain her winning form. The Peter Miller-trained sophomore has a good stalking style and looks the best of the lost at 7/2 on the morning line. Big Novel has been a money burner of late and may be inconvenienced by the rail, but on her best day she’s right there with these and shows the always dangerous route-to-sprint angle while switching to top rider Juan Hernandez for the first time. We’ll give her one more chance. Diamonds Danzing graduated sprinting on grass last time out but her career top number was earned when second two runs back on dirt at Santa Anita, and a repeat of that race today makes her a contender.
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