“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-She’s Resilient
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: She’s Resilient has been meticulously campaigned during her career while compiling a record of three wins from four starts. She had her perfect record snapped when she finished third in a tough starter’s allowance sprint at Santa Anita in mid-June but should get back on the proper today with this realistic class drop to the $40,000 level in a race restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli stays aboard, and with a bullet workout (:46.4h) at San Luis Rey Downs just eight days ago the daughter of Exaggerator looks like a logical rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 8/5.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Colonel Vargo; 6-Too Much Info
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Colonel Vargo is a Pleasanton shipper with form good enough to win at this level on this circuit. He looks a little cheap on paper but has speed figure that fit nicely at this $20,000 level and his numbers have risen in each of his last six starts, so he’s probably not done improving. We’ll put him slightly on top at 4-1 on the morning line. Too Much Info is a dangerous Lone Star Park shipper from Robertino Diodoro’s barn. It’s possible that he prefers grass but on numbers he’s competitive and he’s making his first start since being gelded, his first with blinkers on, and his first in a claimer. Also, with the valuable ship-and-win money available, you know he’s live and well-meant.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Runningwiththeboyz; 1-Eddie’s New Dream
Backups/savers/Underneath: 6-Paris Peacock.
Forecast: We’re not quite sure if Runninwiththeboyz wants any part of nine furlongs but she’s a quality filly and the projected controlling speed, so given the circumstances the daughter of Liam’s Map looks like the one to beat in this allowance optional claiming turf affair for fillies and mares. She’s a tad shy in the speed figure department but at 7/2 on the morning line she’s worth the gamble. Eddie’s New Dream is another that appears to prefer a shorter trip, but she’s always been thoroughly consistent and genuine (first or second in 14 of 24 career starts) and seems likely to inherit a comfortable stalking trip. On pure speed figures, she’s strictly the one to beat.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Don’t Fight the Fed; 1-Cowboy Mike
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Ship and Scam.
Forecast: Don’t Fight the Ed was victimized by a miserable trip in his debut (off slowly, in heavy traffic most of the way, very wide into the lane) and did much better than he had a right to do when closing with interest without being knocked about to wind up fourth in a maiden state-bred sprint at Santa Anita last June. Low profile connections notwithstanding, the son of Nyquist deserves another chance today while stretching out to a mile. With good racing luck, he should pose a serious threat and is a wager for us at or near his morning line of 4-1. Cowboy Mike has burned money in his first three starts but adds blinkers while trying two turns for the first time and seems likely to gun for the lead from his rail post. We’re not sure if he really wants to run this far, but if he can ever win at this distance it’ll probably be in his first attempt.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Kissed by Fire; 5-Just Nails
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Sultry Kitten.
Forecast: Kissed By Fire finished a strong second in a hot race in her comeback in May and today shortens up a furlong while adding Lasix in this abbreviated grass dash for maiden fillies and mares. A bullet half mile workout (:46.1h) over the Santa Anita training track two weeks ago should have her primed and ready. Just Nails displayed some talent in her debut more than a year ago when a very good second in her debut at Los Alamitos, but then disappeared. If she returns as well as she left for trainer Marty Jones, the daughter of Twirling Candy will have a legitimate look, the long layoff notwithstanding. It’s hard to make much of her recent workout pattern but if fit she can be a major pace factor.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Kiss Today Goodbye; 2-Bye Bye Bobby
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Azul Coast; 7-Kitten Mischief
Forecast: Kiss Today Goodbye has never run this far but strikes us as a marathon type and could improve enough in this year’s edition of the Cougar II Stakes-G3 regain his winning form. You have to go back to December of 2020 to find his last win (Santa Antonio S.-G2 at Santa Anita), but this may be his best chance for success after consistently falling short when facing the best older handicap runners in the West. Bye Bye Bobby moves up from Double A to face the big boys after compiling a rather impressive race record in New Mexico (first or second in eight of 13 career starts). His numbers are just okay but what makes him interesting is the mile and one-half distance, which we suspect he’ll handle just fine. At 6-1 on the morning line under Mike Smith, the son of Quality Road is worth including on the main ticket.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Smart Code
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Almendares, 10-Boss Sully
Forecast: Smart Code probably hit the front too soon, went to idling, and then got nailed on the line by stable mate Agency in an excellent sprint comeback last month at Santa Anita. The Mark Glatt-trained colt earned a career top number in defeat, has trained extremely well since, and proved last year he could handle a distance of ground. The lightly raced son of Honor Code has upside that most of the others in here don’t, so at 7/2 on the morning line he offers an excellent wagering opportunity in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Pony Express; 1-Mirahmadi
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Pony Express has trained like an exceptional prospect for John Sadler and looks quick enough to be very effective at this five furlong distance. A :59 2/5 gate work – View Workout Video – could not have been more impressive, so we’re expecting a major effort first time out. Mirahmadi ran below expectations when a distant second at 3/5 in the Fasig-Tipton Futurity on debut last month and never really looked like the hot shot prospect he was supposed to be. He broke a bit slowly in that race – a small excuse – and then he did so again in a subsequent gate work – View Workout Video – so he may be vulnerable again at a short price. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other, but we’ll prefer Pony Express on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Salesman; 1-Cathkin Peak; 7-Du Jour
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 11-Irideo
Forecast: The Wickerr S. always seems to be a contentious affair and this year is no different. Salesman didn’t get the best or runs when ninth (beaten six lengths) in his U.S. debut for trainer Richard Mandella after impressing in a series of sharp drills leading up to the Shoemaker Mile-G1 in late May. He’s much better than that race shows, and with a clean break and a good second flight trip the veteran gelding can step forward considerably. Based on his European form and a recent powerful workout – View Workout Video – he’s a legitimate long shot gamble at 8-1 on the morning line. Cathkin Peak has looked terrific in the morning for trainer Phil D’Amato – View Workout Video – and projects to enjoy a soft, ground-saving trip from his good rail draw. He was Grade-1 placed over this course a couple of years ago and if he can return to that form today he’ll be hard to beat. Du Jour switches to top rider Juan Hernandez, continues to drill impressively, and has races that make him quite dangerous. Toss him in.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:38 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Ipanema Girl; 5-Zoe’s Pride
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: A little will go a long way in this wide-open maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for California-bred fillies and mares. Ipanema Girl has had just one start, so she’s far less exposed than the others and that outing was late year facing straight maidens sprinting on turf. Hopefully, she’s a better type this time around, and from a favorable outside draw (where the best lanes have been during the first two days of the season), the Carla Gaines-trained daughter of Strong Mandate seems quite a bit more dangerous than her 12-1 morning line might indicate. Zoe’s Pride finished third in maiden special weight company at Pleasanton earlier this month and earned a number that makes her highly competitive in this soft spot.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:08 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Overdue; 10-Jacks Outlaw; 11-Give Me the Lute
Backups/savers: 2-Irish Heatwave; 7-Comradery.
Forecast: The finale is a typical grass grab bag, this one for older $25,000 claiming milers. Anything can happen, so use as many as your budget allows in rolling exotic play. Overdue is a three time winner over the local lawn and that alone makes him dangerous. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding needs to be held up early and get cover and given that kind of trip/ride today the veteran gelding should fire one of his good shots. Jacks Outlaw is a dangerous Bay Area shipper who can win as the controlling speed or from a stalking position. He’s a fit on speed figures and offers a good price chance at or near his 10-1 morning line. Give Me the Lute is a first off the claim for Andy Mathis (powerful 25% with this angle) and lands top rider Juan Hernandez. Freshened since February, he’s been primarily a front runner throughout his career, but he could appreciate patient handling over a course we know he likes very much.
