“What You Need to Know” – Gulfstream Park
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:10 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 12-You’re Killin Me; 4-Twice too Many; 9-Friendly Fella
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a Florida-bred optional claimer at seven furlongs. You’re Killin Me just won fairly convincingly over a mile at this condition, was claimed for $12,500 by M. Maker, and returns in the same spot while again being offered for that price. Normally, one might be suspicious of recent winner not being protected on the raise by his new connections but when the purse is $54,000 most claiming outfits will gladly take the quick profit even if they’re conceding the likelihood that the horse will get claimed. Comfortably drawn outside, the veteran gelding – a winner of 13 races in his career – should have clear sailing and every chance from a mid-pack early position to wear down the leaders in the final furlong. Twice too Many switches to L. Saez, gets an extra furlong to work with, and could make his presence felt late. However, with just one career win along with eight seconds and thirds, he’s gained a reputation of usually being a day late and a few lengths short. Toss him in as a back-up or a saver, but that’s all.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 11-Falconet; 6-Veterans Highway
Forecast: Falconet was impressive in a series of workouts last summer at Saratoga but never made it to the post. We haven’t seen much of her on video this winter at Palm Beach Downs other than a breezing team drill in mid-January, but the T. Pletcher-trained debut runners at Gulfstream Park always deserve close conditions and this daughter of Uncle Mo should be plenty fit for a major effort in a stronger-than-average extended sprint for 3-year-olds. She’s the lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite in a field loaded with possibilities. Veterans Highway has the benefit of a prior run, a second place finish a couple of month ago in a race that produced a next out Tampa Bay Downs winner but otherwise was a modest affair that was assigned a soft speed figure. You can use her on a ticket or two for protection, but the main push should go to Falconet.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Use (In order of preference): 2-Never Surprised, 7-Mouillage
Forecast: Never Surprised was admirable in defeat when a close second to his high-class stable mate Colonel Liam in the Pegasus World Cup Turf-G1 here in late January while earning a career top speed figure. Nothing more will be needed in today’s Canadian Turf S.-G3 to get back on the winning track. The son of Constitution has established his preferred style as a devout front-runner and should be quick enough to make the pace from his comfortable two-hole post and then have his chance to dominate gate-to-wire. The one he’ll have to worry about is the European shipper, Mouillage. A listed stakes winner and Group-3-placed while finishing first or second in nine of 11 starts, the C. Brown-trained colt has looked extra sharp in his breezes leading up to his North American barn and must be considered dangerous considering his winning connections. Preference on top goes to the obvious short-priced favorite Never Surprised but we’ll have Mouillage on a few tickets as a backup.
Notable Workouts:
Mouillage (February 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4b). Grade: B+
Even but best with Kalifornia Queen (same time) for C. Brown while under a hammerlock through the lane, final quarter (no dogs) in :24.2. Was a stakes winner in France last time out in September and looks very comfortable over firm footing. Good sort, for sure.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 1:40 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 11-Felix; 1-Particular; 7-Creative Minister
Forecast: Here is a replica of today’s second race, this one for the boys, and requires considerable coverage, as much as your budget allows. Felix was very well-meant in his debut in December but settled for second after cutting out wicked fractions behind the talented Dean’s List in a fast, highly-rated race. He shows a gap in his work pattern of 20 days since in late January but the son of Cupid switches to L. Saez, gets Lasix, and sports a :59 4/5 five furlong bullet drill Feb. 11 to indicate he has all of his speed. Additionally, the R. Nicks barn sports terrific stats with layoff runners and with the second-time starter angle. Particular flashed good gate zip to lead the way into the lane before winding up second (beaten four lengths) in a promising debut run here in early January and hails from the high percentage S. Joseph, Jr., outfit, which hits at an astounding 30 percent with second-timers. If the son of Classic Empire breaks cleanly from the rail, he could take this field a very long way on the front end. Among the newcomers, Creative Minister certainly caught the eye when breezing five furlongs in :58 3/5 in company and appearing best with Grade-1 winner (and Fountain of Youth S. entrant) Rattle and Roll last week. The barn doesn’t have a great win percentage with first-time starters but this colt is 15-1 on the morning line and would we’d have to think he’s better than that.
Notable Workouts:
Particular (February 26, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1b). Grade: B+
Lathered up but went nicely in sharp half mile drill while a half-length best over Cape Trafalgar (same time) for S. Joseph, Jr while coming the final quarter mile in :24.1 under very mild coaxing. Displayed promise in his debut in a hot maiden race in early January and seems likely to move forward with that bit of experience behind him.
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Creative Minister (February 26, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B+
Mild late coaxing while inside Rattle N Roll (same time) for McPeek, final half mile in :22.4 and :46.3, impressive for an unraced maiden in company with a Grade-1 winner (and looking a tad the best as well). Sophomore son of Creative Cause appears to have plenty of talent and is worth a look in a maiden special weight event, for sure.
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Felix (February 20, Gulfstream Park, 5f, 1:02.3b). Grade: B
Breezing in easy five furlong solo drill for Hicks, plenty left through the lane, final quarter in :24 flat. Displayed promise in debut and should produce a forward move next time, out.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Virginia Joy
Forecast: The Very One S.-G3 over the mini-marathon distance of 11 furlongs on grass looks ideal for Virginia Joy, the 2-1 morning line favorite and a rolling exotic single on our ticket. The German-bred mare, away since last summer, won her U.S. debut following a 13 month vacation so we know she can fire fresh, and a recent bullet workout (5f, 1:00.4b) at Payson Park gives strong indication that she’s fit and ready. Reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., the C. Brown-trained mare projects to settle in the second flight and then be turned loose when ready. The graded stakes winning five-year-old is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and offers good wagering value at that price, if you can get.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:40 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Kathleen O.; 4-Outfoxed; 3-Girl With a Dream; 2-Classy Edition
Forecast: This year’s edition of the Davona Dale S.-G2 for 3-year-old fillies is a powerful event with several high-quality contenders. Undefeated Kathleen O. was shut off and apparently eliminated at the start in the recent Cash Run S. over this track and distance on New Year’s Day but miraculously recovered and produced a scintillating late kick to win going away by more than eight lengths while verifying the favorable impression she made when graduating at first asking from far off the pace at Aqueduct in November. This a much tougher assignment, but she could easily be up to the task, rail post and all, if she can leave with her field and secure a reasonable mid-pack early position. She shows a strong and healthy work tab since raced, so at 9/2 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. The multiple Florida-bred stakes winner Outfoxed made hard work of it when winning a listed stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs in her sophomore debut in mid-January in her first outing since last fall. Like Kathleen O., she’ll need to step it up today against this deeper group but she has an ideal second flight, stalking style for this one-turn mile distance and could easily have it in her. Girl With a Dream may be able to inherit the role as the controlling speed, just as she did when winning the Forward Gal S.-G3 here last month. The victory earned a career top speed figure, so if she can clear the field early without being sent the Fair Grounds-based daughter of Practical Joke will be dangerous at 5-1 on the morning line. Let’s not forget about the T. Pletcher-trained Classy Edition, perfect in three starts vs. New York-bred foes as a juvenile, makes her sophomore debut following a sharp series of drills at Palm Beach Downs. Today she tackles open company, but on pure numbers she’s a fit and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Royal Spirit; 2-Coinage
Forecast: The second and third place finishers in the recent Kitten’s Joy S. hook up again in the listed Palm Beach S. and are the main players in this one mile turf event for 3-year-olds. In that last race, Royal Spirit stalked the pace to the head of the lane, gained the lead in deep stretch but just failed to hold when going down by a neck to the late-charging Grand Sonata. With ‘Sonata sitting this one out, ‘Spirit looks tough, though the third place finisher in that event, Coinage, seems likely to produce a forward move after making the running and then weakening late in his first start since November. The M. Casse-trained Coinage is favorably drawn in the two-hole and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics again, so if he is fitter in this race than he was last time out the son of Tapit could make the running and never look back. These two are difficult to split, so we’ll include both in rolling exotic play while maybe giving Royal Spirit a very slight edge on top.
Notable Workouts:
Coinage (February 18, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.4b TC DU). Grade: B+
Washy, but looked sharp in solo half mile breeze around dogs on grass, cruise control throughout. May have been a tad short in Kitten’s Joy when worn down late as the favorite but seems likely to step forward next time.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B+
Single: 4-Prevalence
Forecast: Let’s take a gamble on Prevalence at 8-1 on the morning line in this second-level allowance one-turn miler for older horses. Once highly-regarded after winning his first two starts over the local main track like a potential Derby prospect last year, the son of Medaglia d’Oro went sour and was stopped on before returning in an extended sprint at this level last month. The B. Walsh-trained colt finished a non-threatening fifth, but didn’t break well, raced in traffic, and then found his best stride too late in a performance that was much better than the line will show. With that tightener behind him and with an extra furlong to work with today, we’re expecting this lightly-raced and talented colt to step forward in a major way as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:10 ET Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Jouster; 7-Alms; 8-Wakanaka
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Honey Fox S.-G3 over a mile on grass for fillies and mares is an extremely challenging affair, with several legitimate possibilities to consider. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Jouster is a need-the-lead type, and when she is able to establish the pace without having to set fast fractions she can be very difficult to run down. Away since July but training better than she ever has for T. Pletcher, the daughter of Noble Mission has won off a layoff in the past, so the possibility exists for a career top effort. At 9/2 on the morning line, we’ll put her on top. Alms, an excellent runner-up at 19-1 in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf-G3 over the local lawn last month that produced a career top speed figure, projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. It’s been awhile since she’s won but a repeat of her last race could easily be good enough. Wakanaka was a quality performer in Italy prior to importation and ran like she needed the race when sixth, beaten five lengths, in the same race that Alms just finished second in. She switches to J. Ortiz and seems likely to produce a significant forward move, and a 6-1 on the morning line offers reasonable value.
Notable Workouts:
Jouster (February 12, Palm Beach Downs, 5f, 1:01.1b). Grade: A-
Sharp, eager, and full of run in solo move for T. Pletcher, :48.1 on our watches from the half mile pole to the wire while under a tight hold every step of the way. Away since last July but appear to be returning in peak form and has won off a long layoff in the past.
View Workout Video
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RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 3-Speaker’s Corner; 4-Fearless
Forecast: Even so though there’s a negative six pound weight shift he must deal with compared with main rival Fearless, Speaker’s Corner should be capable of winning right back at the same track and distance that produced his most recent victory, a visually impressive and highly-rated score in the F. W. Hooper S.-G3 in late January. A winner of four races from seven career starts and with four triple-digit Beyer speed figures already on his resume, the son of Street Sense projects to be on the lead, though he has won from a stalking, second flight position in the past, so regular rider J. Alvarado can assess the early pace flow and pick a strategy. The W. Mott-trained colt shows a strong, heathy work tab since raced, so at 5/2 on the morning line he deserves top billing both in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Fearless, a four time winner from six starts at Gulfstream Park, is the second choice at 3-1 and deserves consideration. Second without mishap in the Hooper, the son of Ghostzapper has a chance to turn the tables with the weight-break in his favor and would have his chances increase if a faster-than-par early pace materializes.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: X
Single: 1-Abaan
Forecast: Abaan has really blossomed since being transferred to grass and he keeps improving with every start. A winner of four of his last five, three of which were accomplished over marathon trips, the son of Will Take Charge is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in 2022 running of the Mac Diarmida S.-G2 over 11 furlongs, and from his highly favorable rail draw can dominate this field on the front end or from a stalking position, whichever is required. Regardless of the race flow, we’re anticipate the T. Pletcher-trained gelding to justify what surely will be a short price as a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Abaan (February 12, Palm Beach Downs, 4f, :48.4hb). Grade: B
Final three furlongs in :36 flat, just galloping along, never asked, while maintaining his edge. Turf specialist gets over the dirt just fine though he’s clearly most effective on the lawn. Ready for another major effort.
View Workout Video
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RACE 12: Post: 5:40 ET Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 8-Emmanuel; 4-In Due Time; 2-Simplification
Forecast: Mo Donegal, the expected race favorite in this year’s renewal of the Fountain of Youth S.-G2, was withdrawn a couple of days ago when he came down with a fever, a tough break for the colt and his connections as well as the gambler who thought he was vulnerable and wished he would have been able to stay in the field and siphon some money. With or without him in the lineup, we would have favored Emmanuel, and obviously still do. Unbeaten in two starts while visually very impressive in both outings, the son of More Than Ready tackles a much stronger group of 3-year-olds than he’s seen so far, but we’re expecting the T. Pletcher-trained colt to be up to the task. Part of the pace in his first two starts, he might not be quick enough to make the running in a middle distance event loaded with front-running types, but we don’t expect him to be inconvenienced from a second flight, stalking position, so as long as he leaves with his field and is within striking range throughout, he should be just fine. In Due Time pulverized a first-level allowance field at a one turn mile last month like a colt with a very high ceiling and based on pure numbers the son of Not This Time should be a major factor throughout. His pedigree suggests that this stretch-out in trip will be to his liking. Simplification overcame a poor start to rally late and finish an excellent second in the Holy Bull S.-G3 over this track and distance last month and today he could return to his pace-pressing style, though he won’t be getting any breathers if Markhamian is gunned to front from the rail, as expected. Today we’ll find out if the A. Sano-trained colt is a legitimate player for the spring classics.
Notable Workouts:
Simplification (February 19, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B
Rough changing leads (not unusual for him) but finished under a nice hold while showing his speed throughout, final quarter mile in :24.1. Likely to be close to the pace if not on the lead in the Fountain of Youth after breaking slowly in the Holy Bull S. last time out.
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In Due Time (February 18, Palm Meadows, 5f, :59.3b). Grade: B-
Was ridden and shown the stick through the lane, final quarter mile in :24.2. Good move but was asked fairly aggressively in the final furlong. Certainly wasn’t breezing.
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Rattle N Roll (February 26, Gulfstream Park, 5f, :58.3b). Grade: B
Worked outside maiden Creative Minister (same time) and was maybe a head back at the wire under mild late coaxing, final half mile in :22.4 and :46.3. Was a bit washy and had to be asked a little bit more than workmate but still earned fast closing. Might need a race to be 100 percent fit.
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Emmanuel (February 26, Palm Beach Downs, 4f, :48b). Grade: B+
Easy half mile breeze inside Mustasaabeq (same time) for T. Pletcher, splits of :25 flat and :48.2 on our watches, coasting to the wire and then finishing very well through the lane before being allowed to gallop out strongly all the out to the original starting point. Big, strong colt with plenty of scope and power gets a class test in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 and is approaching the race just right.
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RACE 13: Post: 6:12 PT Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 4-Spendarella; 2-Mischievous Kiss; 8-Opalina; 3-Diamond Wow
Forecast: This is a much stronger than average edition of the Herecomesthebride S.-G3 for 3-year-olds and it will take a pretty good filly to win it. Spendarella looks very much like a good one, indeed. The G. Motion-trained sophomore performed like a veteran when winning at first asking, leaving sharply from the gate to press the pace, switching off midway, and then re-breaking when asked entering the lane to draw away with complete authority while earning a nice number. She has trained impressively since that outing, so we’re expecting the daughter of Karakontie to produce a significant forward move, one that makes her capable of winning right back at 6-1 on the morning line. We’ll certainly play her at the price in the win pool, but in rolling exotic play with go deeper to cover all of the bases. Mischievous Kiss was a stakes winner routing on grass as a 2-year-old and returns for a stable that has superlative stats with layoff runners. Drawn comfortably inside, the daughter of Into Mischief projects to settle in a second flight, ground-saving position and then have her chance when the pressure is turned on. Opalina is fresh from a win in the Sweetest Chant S.-G3 over the local lawn last month and looks tough right back. She’s not overwhelmingly fast on speed figures but is tough, dependable, and experienced and will be bearing down from the quarter pole home. Diamond Wow has plenty of talent but was far below form in her recent comeback sprinting on dirt in the Forward Gal S.-G3. She’s back on her preferred surface, stretches out to a distance she can handle, and adds blinkers, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll find a spot for her on our rolling exotic ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Diamond Wow (February 25, Palm Meadows, 6f, 1:13b TC). Grade: B+
No dogs, in blinkers, broke off behind Pretty Provocative (6f, 1:13.3b TC) and stalked that one to the top of the lane before going by easily without ever being asked, final quarter mile in :24.1 with a ton left. Better mover on grass than dirt and should produce a significant forward move when returned to the lawn.
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Spendarella (February 27, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:00.1b TC). Grade: A-
No dogs, in company inside Bipartisanship (same time) for G. Motion and looked terrific under a strong hold to breezing to the wire and appearing best by almost a length, full of run throughout, final quarter mile in :24.1. Won at first asking in good style and trained impressively since. High quality prospect.
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