“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Red Diamond; 4-Aventapp
Forecast: Red Diamond ran well over this course last year while earning speed figures that are good enough to beat this modest maiden $62,500 field of fillies and mares. The work tab looks good enough to have her fit, and she’s run very well twice off a layoff in the past, so let’s assume she’s ready to fire her best shot for Hall of Famer R. McAnally. Aventapp is slower on numbers than our top pick but has the benefit of a recent run when finishing second to a next out winner over the local lawn earlier this meeting. Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Red Diamond.
RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Area Code; 1-Heaven’s Music
Forecast: Area Code finished a non-threatening fifth in his debut last month on grass in a race he had a right to need and today seems likely to produce a forward move with the switch to the main track and with F. Prat staying aboard. The son of Honor Code is a fit based on speed figures and certainly has more room to improve than the other logical contender, Heaven’s Music, who already has had nine chances while hitting the board six times. The winner most likely will be one of these two, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics while reserving the main push for Area Code.
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): Rose Maddox; 1-Youte; 6-Increase Stakes
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in rolling exotic play in this six-runner allowance optional claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares, but otherwise pass the race. Late-runner Rose Maddox (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) continues to break slowly and won’t reach her potential until she figures out how to leave with her company, but if she ever does get the hang of it the daughter of Grazen might turn out to be a decent California-bred filly. Second over this course and distance last time out with a furious late kick after spotting the field several lengths during the early stages, the S. Miyadi-trained sophomore should be capable of tagging the leaders close home with a good break and clean trip. Youte (TOC-9/2; ML=2-1) didn’t earn much of a speed figure when breaking her maiden over the local lawn in her second career start, but she did it the right way and certainly has plenty of room for further improvement. The C. Gaines-trained daughter of Danzing Candy switches to F. Prat, lands the rail, and projects to be running on strongly late. Increase Stakes (TOC=3/5; ML-3-1) broke her maiden under these conditions last month while on the pace under pressure throughout in game style while earning a decent speed figure. Loved by the analytics, the daughter of Square Eddie should be highly competitive right back and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Micro Share
Forecast: Micro Share, the 4/5 morning line favorite, was scratched out of the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 last Sunday for this more realistic spot and the daughter of Upstart looks ready to graduate after finishing a distant second behind Adare Manor, who may very well be the best 3-year-old filly in the West. A recent outstanding workout (7f, 1:26h) in which she broke off five lengths in front of subsequent San Felipe S.-G2 winner Forbidden Kingdom and held him off while under a stout hold was quite impressive, so let’s expect the R. Mandella-trained filly to handle this assignment as a logical rolling exotic single.
Micro Share (February 24, Santa Anita. 7f, 1:26h). Grade: B+
Broke off several lengths in front of subsequent San Felipe S.-G2 winner Forbidden Kingdom (7f, 1:25h) and after being challenged by that one entering the lane, gamely held way while traveling out to the seven-furlong pole (workmate was under late pressure), quite impressive under the circumstances for R. Mandella, splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :48 flat, 1:12.3 and 1:26 flat on our watches. Looks ready to earn her maiden diploma.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 4-Sometimes Always; 2-Dream Robber; 1-Mad Catter
Forecast: We’ll triple this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint in our rolling exotics, but otherwise pass in a race that we have no real conviction. Sometimes Always (TOC=5/2; ML=2-1) has speed figures that can win and was more than five lengths clear of the rest when second over this track and distance vs. slightly tougher foes last month. He’s always been suspect under pressure close home (one win, six seconds) but if he can turn in two alike, he’ll be tough. Dream Robber (TOC-3-1; ML=5/2) is re-equipped with blinkers, drops for the money run and is a perfect one-for-one at this abbreviated sprint trip. He’ll be part of the pace throughout. Mad Catter (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1) looked decent breaking his maiden at the bottom $20,000 level last month with a number that makes him a fit right back. If he leaves cleanly from the rail, he should be a pace factor throughout.
RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Excelerina; 7-Annaghlasa
Forecast: We loved the way Excelerina (TOC=5-1; ML=9/5) inhaled maidens in her U.S. debut last month over this course and distance, lagging to the head of the lane and then quickening like a good filly to graduate going away with a solid speed figure. This raise to first-level allowance condition should be well within her capabilities, so let’s strongly prefer the P. D’Amato-trained Irish-bred on top. Stable mate Annaghlasa (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) gives the barn two bullets to fire and is worth using on your ticket as a back-up or a saver based on the pace projection of the race that has her settling outside in an ideal stalking position, if not on the lead. This nine-furlong distance should be within her range and she’s fast on numbers, as well.
Excelerina (February 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off several lengths behind Shut Up Michael (5f, 1:02.1h TT) and wound up head-and-head with workmate at the wire while finishing under a nice hold (workmate not asked, either), final three furlongs in :36.2. Won her U.S. debut with authority and should be very competitive on the raise.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): I’m Corfu; 5-Fury Kap
Forecast: I’m Corfu (TOC=4/5; ML=9/5) earned a sharp speed figure when finishing third in a very strong starter’s allowance sprint in his local debut last month and this drop to the $32,000 looks like a winning move for his Midwest connections. He’ll have to break running from the rail but if he can shake loose early, he should be able to dominate throughout. Fury Kap (2-1; ML=5/2) won his comeback race in okay style and is jumped considerably in class in a sign of confidence. We’ll use him on a ticket or two as a backup, but he’ll really have to step it up in the speed figure department to be a threat to our top pick.
Fury Kap (March 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Went off quickly, was ridden through the lane and was doing his best to the end, final half mile in :23.1 and :48.4h for J. Sadler. Won his comeback in a soft spot last month, probably will produce a forward move based on this drill.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Cash Equity; 4-Sniper Kitten
Forecast: We’ll use two in the nightcap, a stronger-than-par second level allowance turf miler for older horses. Cash Equity (TOC=5-1; ML=5/2) makes his U.S. debut for a barn that has superior stats with these types of European imports and based on his French form this P. D’Amato-trained colt should be hard to beat at this level. Multiple stakes-placed in good company last summer, the son of Toronado has put together a series of training track drills that should have him plenty fit, and with F. Prat taking the call you know this colt is extremely live and well-meant. Sniper Kitten (TOC=9/2; ML=20-1) was in too tough when setting the pace and then weakening to finish fifth in the Thunder Road S.-G3 behind subsequent Kilroe Mile-G1 winner Count Again. This is a much more realistic spot for the veteran son of Kitten’s Joy, who does his best running when held up early and allowed to quicken late. He is listed at 20-1 on the morning line but the analytics give him a much better chance thant that. The main push goes to Cash Equity, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Cash Equity (March 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h TT). Grade: B
Import in P. D’Amato barn broke off two lengths behind the talented sophomore filly Kitty Kitana (same time) and hit the wire a like distance behind, but wasn’t asked, final three furlongs in :36.2. Was a marathon type in France but should be effective at a middle distance on this circuit.
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