Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Friday, May 24, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Quintecents; 6-Crazy Cavalier.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’re always hesitant to pick a 17-race maiden but in today’s opener it simply couldn’t be avoided. Quintecents may finally have found a field he can outrun in this modest maiden $50,000 extended turf sprint, though he’s clearly not one to trust. Winless in 10 previous tries over the local lawn, the son of Goldencents at least has hit the board in six of those races and he appears to be quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout. The most dangerous of the newcomers may be Crazy Cavalier, who has done some okay work at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer R. Baltas. He breezed a moderate 10 3/5 seconds at the OBS June sale last summer, but he showed himself to be a good mover with a nice stride, so maybe he can be competitive against this group.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3-Vulin; 2-Dramatizer
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Vulin and Dramatizer finished one-two in a $10,000 claimer last month over this track and distance in a stronger than par event for the class and meet again on the one-level raise for new connections. The former, now in V. Cerin’s barn, switches to T. Baze, who has won on her in the past and projects to have her draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position and have every chance to score right back. The latter, haltered by the low profile G. Lopez stable, may be dangerous from off the pace if the early fractions help her out. We’re expecting the winner will be one or the other.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Beer Money; 4-Special Club.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Beer Money has finished In the frame in three of four starts over the local lawn and based on speed figures looks like a reasonable gamble in this competitive grass dash. The D. O’Neill-trained colt projects to inherit an ideal stalking trip from his outside draw and have every chance from there. Special Club, clearly most effective as a late-running sprinter, graduated for fun over this course and distance two weeks ago, and if he doesn’t react negatively off the quick turnaround (and we don’t think he will) the son of Clubhouse Ride will be tough right back despite the class hike.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:39 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6-Donita Rose
Backups/savers: 4-Flamina.
Forecast: Donita Rose stretches out for the first time, and if she’s ever going to stay a mile it most likely will be in her first try. The daughter of Stay Thirsty certainly has the pedigree to handle two turns and seems likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed without really being asked. She missed as the favorite without any real excuse in her most recent outing, but she retains top rider J. Hernandez, and given the projected pace flow she most likely be the heavy chalk once again.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Smart Kitten; 5-Highlands.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Smart Kitten simply ran out of ground when missing by a head while five lengths clear of the rest in her first start in 10 months four weeks ago and was claimed by S. Knapp (a solid 18% with this angle). The new barn stretches her out to her preferred distance and based on numbers and her usual running style the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should be on or near the lead throughout. Highlands earned a solid speed figure for this group when a good runner-up in an allowance grass race at Turf Paradise last month. If she repeats that performance today she’ll be right there. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to ‘Kitten.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Potential Spam; 8-Syntactic
Backups/savers: 6-Hardmoneymuchachos; 2-Fireman Dan.
Forecast: Potential Spam got a confidence building win for maiden $20,000 last month while equaling his career top speed figure and had the form franked when the runner-up came back to graduate in sharp style next time out. From the rail, the son of Palace Malice should inherit a mid-pack, ground saving trip, and if he produces even a slight forward move he could repeat on the raise at a decent price. Syntactic is a first time gelding and may improve after finishing a close third in a similar restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer last month. He’s a one-paced grinder and will need to drop over and save some ground from his outside post, but it may be significant that T. Baze jumps off our top pick to stick with the M. Glatt-trained gelding.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Pink Whitney; 7-Marinas Tina (Ire).
Backups/savers: 4-Weemissgrammy.
Forecast: Pink Whitney exits a series of stronger races, most recently when fourth in a recent hot allowance main track event behind the highly promising Jane Austen. With this condition-friendly starter’s allowance race appearing in the book, trainer D. O’Neill has opted to bring her back on short rest of seven days. Back over a turf course that she’s won on in the past, the daughter of Liam’s Map should draft into a comfortable second flight trip and then kick home when given her cue. Marinas Tina (Ire) missed by a neck when favored against this group last month in a race that produced a career top speed figure. It’ll be interesting to see how much if any effect the addition of blinkers for the first time will have on her form.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:46 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 1-Principe Carlo; 6-Katar; 3-Joe Don Looney.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Principe Carlo shows up in a mid-level claimer and the class drop is warranted following a long series of ambitiously placed outings in which the veteran gelding was simply in too tough. He’s back in 12 days, but if the son of Coil handles the quick turnaround he may be good enough to beat this field. Katar is a razor sharp Phoenix invader with rapidly improving speed figures, but this is a much saltier band of sprinters than he’s been beating of late. Today we’ll find out if he belongs on this circuit. Joe Don Looney has been away for 13 months, and the work tab looks a bit light, so we’re wondering if this tough, veteran gelding might need the outing. On the positive side, he’s been first or second in five of eight starts over the local main track, is fast enough on figures to pose a threat, and his trainer has off-the-charts stats with comebackers.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 7-Legitify (Ire) ; 2-Uncle Reg; 8-Quality Wins.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Let’s go for a price in the nightcap, an extended turf sprint for maiden $50,000 older horses that offers several possibilities. Legitify (Ire) at one time was fairly well regarded but after two starts finds himself in a seller and could very well have found his comfort zone. The son of Justify has so far displayed good early speed before fading when facing some quick straight maidens, but against this group the R. Mandella-trained sophomore might be able to stick around for a long time. He’s listed at 8-1 on the morning line and is worth at gamble at or near that price. Uncle Reg is a one-paced grinder that lacks a winning punch, but for new trainer R. Baltas following a claim at this level the son of Lea really won’t have to improve much to earn his diploma. He should be doing his best work late. Quality Wins is dropping into a seller for the first time in his first start in 11 months. The good news is the barn sports terrific stats with the layoff angle, in addition to having run well on the course in the past and landing one of the barn’s “go-to riders (K. Frey). The main concern is that he’s looked just ordinary in his comeback drills. Out of respect for the connections, we’ll toss him in.
