“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Annie’s Song; 6-Honor It; 7-Briefcase Girl; 8-Too Bossy
Forecast: Lots of question marks in the opener, so we’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play. Annie’s Song has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and may in fact be most effective as a late-running turf sprinter. Even at this abbreviated five furlong trip, the Irish-bred filly should be quite dangerous from off the pace. Honor It flopped when well-backed in her only start last year but returns at a distance and surface that should bring out her best. She has plenty of zip – perhaps not much stick – but if she breaks cleanly this time the daughter of Tapit should have a strong pace presence. Both Briefcase Girl and Too Busy have trained like off-the-pace types and therefore may find five furlongs a bit sharp, but both have done some good work in the a.m. while displaying some quality, so at 6-1 on the morning line they’re worth including on the ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Honor It (April 28, Santa Anita, 5f, 59.3hg). Grade: B
Was driven hard from the gate inside Fordy G (4f, :46.2hg) and Reign of Speed (4f, :48.1hg) while almost two lengths clear after the opening half, then failed to change leads and slowed up noticeably in the final furlong, splits of :23.1, :34.2 and :46.3 on our watches before finishing out a tick or two slower when eased up after five furlongs, eventually coasting to the wire in 1:15.2. Has plenty of zip, seems ideally suited for five furlongs (the shorter, the better) and clearly has more speed than her only prior outing last summer indicates.
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Briefcase Girl (April 17, Santa Anta, 5f, :59.3h TT). Garde: B
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Gillian Elizabeth (5f, 1:00.1h) and Candybox (5f, 1:00.3h) in training track drill for Gaines, came through inside entering the lane easily disposed of workmates while drawing clear in the final furlongs, visually pleasing, splits of :23.1, :35.1 and :59.3 on our watches, lengthening out to the wire and galloping out well. Daughter of Hit It a Bomb may be a distance type but has a good turn of foot and could be competitive as a late-running sprinter. Decent turf prospect.
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Too Bossy (April 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01 TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, broke off several lengths behind Rosie the Cat (5f, 1:02.3h TT) and easily went by in the lane while mostly on her own, final three furlongs in :36.1, much the best by several lengths at the wire. Has some run, being trained like a stretch-running type.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:38 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Liar Liar; 4-Vetoed; 5-Conundrum
Forecast: Vetoed and Conundrum should get more play than they deserve in this bottom-rung maiden claimer, but unless the newcomer Liar Liar can run, the winner probably will be one of these two. Vetoed has failed as the favorite in four of his six career starts and keeps getting slower (based on figures) by the race, so he’s obviously not one to trust, while Conundrum, the subject of a claiming war between G. Papaprodromou and E. Moger, Jr. for reasons that defy logic, has hit the board in five of six starts but seems unable to punch it in under pressure. Meanwhile, Liar Liar offers a viable alternative. Now five years old and finally making it to the races, the son of Clubhouse Ride doesn’t look half bad in the morning, so why not go with the fresh face in a race begging to be won by one?
Notable Workouts:
Liar Liar (March 31, Santa Anita, 4f, :49hg). Grade: C+
Broke poorly, rushed up and then went head-and-head after the opening furlong with Restoring Dreams (same time) in gate drill for D. Pederson, splits of :25 flat, :36.4 and :49 flat, mostly on his own and finishing with something left. Not the worst but needs to learn how to break. Five-year-old maiden probably will debut cheap.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Frontier Market; 4-Encroachment
Forecast: Encroachment (TOC=4/5; ML=5/2) has form sufficient to win at this level but his pattern is unhealthy. An allowance winner two races back and then dangled as bait when reappearing in a $40,000 seller last time out, the Uncle Mo gelding ran reasonably well to be second, was haltered by R. Alvarado, and returns for $25,000 while providing the evidence of an issue that his new connections apparently don’t want to deal with. Additionally, the lightly-raced five-year-old is facing considerable heat in this race that should produce a less-than-ideal pace flow for a gelding that prefers to be on or near the lead. Frontier Market (TOC=8-1; ML=5-1) isn’t as fast on numbers as Encroachment but he has a closing kick that likely will be promoted by the race shape. He’s winless in five starts over the local lawn and always has preferred to run second or third than win, but he may be able to produce the last run in a race that seems likely to be won from behind. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play but not with a great deal of confidence. Tread lightly.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference: 7-Lil Light Headed; 2-Its Big; 6-Chris Fix
Forecast: Lil Light Headed is nobody’s ideal version of a 6/5 morning line favorite but may win this split of the second race by default. Lightly-raced with room for improvement that most of the others in the field don’t have, the son of Will Take Charge shows the popular route-to-sprint angle combined with a cozy outside draw but may not be one to trust after failing at 3/5 last time out despite inheriting the role as the controlling speed. Others to (reluctantly) include on your ticket are It’s Big (class dropping to his lowest level and possibly most effective as a late running sprinter) and Chris Fix (exiting better races with figures that fit).
Notable Workouts:
Chris Fix (April 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4hg). Grade: C+
Broke okay from gate and was ridden most of the way, splits of :24.3, :36.1, :48.3 and 1:01.4, asked most of the way while slightly second best with Stoic Luna (4f, :48.4hg) for A. Marquez. Seems about the same, needs bottom-rung maiden claimers.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Ghostem; 3-Avery Blue
Forecast: Six of the eight runners in this nine furlong maiden turf event for older state-bred fillies and mares exit the same April 10 race, which was contested over a mile. Ghostem made the running in that event but got nailed late while more than two lengths clear of the rest, and with the addition of blinkers today (she’s worn them before) at this longer nine furlong trip the daughter of Shaman Ghost most likely will employ similar front-running tactics. Avery Blue finished fifth (beaten less than five lengths) without being knocked about in her debut and seems likely to produce a forward move in what should be a much more serious effort today. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Americaredwhiteblu; 8-Finglas Lad
Forecast: Americaredwhiteblu (TOC=9-1; ML5/2) was a maiden special weight winner at Oaklawn Park last year but then was haltered when (suspiciously) dropped into a $50,000 claimer and finished far back as the 6/5 favorite. Taken by M. Glatt, the son of American Pharoah was stopped on and turned out but returns protected in his first start for his new connections and his first in 11 months. The work tab looks quite good at San Luis Rey Downs, so let’s assume this lightly-raced 4-year-old colt can return to his best form in this starter’s allowance extended sprint for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. Finglas Lad (TOC=15-1; ML=8-1), off the track since October, is another that could return better than he left. The R. Alvarado-trained colt worked nicely from the gate last week to indicate he’s fit enough, and though much slower on speed figures than our top pick could be a much improved type this time around. The main push in our rolling exotic play goes to Americanredwhiteblue but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Finglas Lad (April 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B-
Even but maybe a tad second best in team gate drill outside Superman Shaq (same time), splits of :23.4, :35.2, :47.2 and 1:00.2 (coasted out in front in 1:15.2 to the wire), not bad for R. Alvarado, while gearing up for comeback. Maybe a bit better this time around than last year, eligible to return in a moderate sprint.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: A-
Use (in order of preference): 8-So It Would Seem
Forecast: So It Would Seem is an absolute stick out in tis maiden $50,000 turf sprint for older fillies and mares. Burned up in a torrid speed duel vs. infinitely stronger maiden special weight foes last time out, the J. Sadler-trained filly should bury this group with anything close to her strong runner-up performance vs. maiden $75,000 foes two runs back. The switch to grass shouldn’t be an issue, so let’s make this daughter of Honor Code a strong win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2.
Notable Workouts:
So It Would Seem (Santa Anita, March 30, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Finished in good rhythm, final half mile in :23.3 and :47.3 mild urging only, nice drill for Sadler. Got cooked in a speed duel vs. straight maidens last time out and seems sure to improve a bunch next time when returned to the maiden claiming ranks.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:50 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 6-Claim of Passion; 8-Black Storm
Forecast: This $12,500 sprint for older claimers looks best suited for Los Alamitos-based runners. We’re not planning on getting too involved and will use just two on our ticket. Claim of Passion (TOC=10-1; ML=5/2), first off the claim by S. Miyadi, shortens to a one corner race for the first time in memory and may like the turn back in trip. He’s a prior winner over the Santa Anita main track and may be capable of producing a winning late kick. Black Storm (TOC=9/5; ML=3-1) was a non-threatening fifth from the rail last time out in a tougher event but earned a number that makes him a major player against this group. He’s a 10-time winner overall, with seven of the victories earned at Santa Anita, so on that angle alone he’s a major player.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:21 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Handy Pandy; 9-Beef Winslow; 6-Nero Tulip
Forecast Handy Pandy hit the board in a pair of recent turf stakes that produced strong speed figures and today drops to the allowance ranks while seeking a confidence-building win. He’s listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. With the switch to J. J. Hernandez, we’re expecting the R. Alvarado-trained gelding to be along in time. Beef Winslow was handed an easy front-running trip and took full advantage of the situation to wire the field in a fast event for sophomore maidens. He’ll need to negotiate an extra furlong today but based on numbers he may never look back if left alone again. Nero Tulip showed some ability sprinting in Ireland last fall and makes his U.S. debut for P. Eurton over a distance of ground. His form is hard to gauge, though his Timeform ratings weren’t bad at all, and his local workouts indicate he should enjoy today’s trip. At 8-1 on the morning line, you have to toss him in somewhere.
Notable Workouts:
Nero Tulip (April 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
Broke off many lengths behind Kazuhiko (5f, 1:01.1h TT) and closed the gap through the lane to be about a length back at the finish, ridden through the lane, final three furlongs on training track in :11.4 and :35.1. Irish import has some run, probably a stretch running type, has all of his conditions for P. Eurton.
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