“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Storming Lady; 1=Never for Money
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Storming Lady found her best stride too late when finishing third (beaten a half-length) in a $25,000 turf sprint last month at Del Mar but today gets an extra furlong to work with while being raised to the $40,000 level by new trainer Peter Miller (21% off the claim) in a sign of confidence so we’re expecting the veteran mare to be along in time. First or second in eight of 15 starts over the local lawn, she’s always been genuine and consistent. Miller’s other starter – Fulminate – is worth including on your ticket as well due primarily to the projected pace flow, which projects to be quite soft. Back on turf and getting a break in the weights, the sophomore filly could get brave if she can shake loose early. Never for Money sprung a mild 5-1 surprise when winning the same race Storming Lady exits and seems likely to be competitive again. She’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, and as a winner of four of 12 career starts, she clearly knows where the wire is.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Over Attracted; 2-Ole Silver
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Over Attracted has numbers that should make her tough to beat in this five-runner starter allowance main track miler for fillies and mares. Winless in four starts this year but with an ideal pace-stalking style that should have within striking range throughout, the Caesar DeAlba-trained mare earned a career top speed figure when a solid second in a first-level allowance event at Los Alamitos last month, and a repeat of that effort in this starter allowance affair should be good enough. Ole Silver does her best work on the front end and is a two-time winner (from three starts) over the Santa Anita main track. Front-running tactics very likely will be employed, and if the Phil D’Amato-trained mare can clear the pack early without pressure she could take this field a very long way.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Mining Crypto; 1-Linger
Forecast: This modest maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older state-bred fillies and mares attracted just five runners, so there’s little to work with in a race that might be best left alone. Mining Crypto has displayed plenty of zip but not much stick, so she can’t be one to trust, yet rates top billing by default. She’ll take them as far as she can, and in a field without any known late speed she might be able to stagger home. Linger is a first-time starter and therefore unexposed, so we’ll toss her in as well. The Ryan Hanson-trained daughter of Mucho Macho Man has been working steadily since late July, so she is sure to be fit, and some of her workout times indicate at least some ability.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-My Summer Dream; 1-Uncle Jeff
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the fourth race, a turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimers that, truthfully, could be won by just about anyone. My Summer Dreamhas failed as the favorite in two of his last three starts but he has a prior win over the local lawn and projects to enjoy a good second flight trip from his outside draw. Juan Hernandez stays aboard for Jeff Mullins, always a high percentage jockey-trainer combo, so we’ll put this Summer Front gelding slightly on top. Uncle Jeff, sixth in the same race My Summer Dream just finished fourth in, has enough early speed to secure a good stalking trip from his rail draw, and given his projected favorable trip the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding should improve enough to pose a threat. He’s solid in the speed figure department and broke his maiden sprinting over this turf course in his debut last year.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Sugar Sugar; 5-Miss Baylee
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Sugar Sugar, first off the claim for Steve Knapp (a respectable 17% with this angle), returns to the same level and appears to have found a bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claiming field she can beat. She was seven lengths clear of the rest in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month and nothing more should be needed today to handle this below average group. Miss Baylee, the 9/5 morning line favorite, has enough early speed to be a strong pace factor and has managed to hit the board in four of her last five starts. She is competitive with our top pick on based on speed figures and won’t have to improve much to earn her diploma.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Opry
Backups/savers: 6-Southern King
Forecast: Opry was claimed in his last pair, most recently at this $25,000 level by trainer Jeff Bonde, but missed when second as the favorite in a similar affair at Del Mar in mid-August and will be making his first start in more than two months. That’s not a healthy pattern, but if he can come close to his best race in his first start for new connections the lightly raced six-year-old gelding should be capable of regaining his winning form. In the frame in 10 of 16 career starts and with several numbers that are better than par for this class, the son of Declaration of War is assured a ground-saving trip from the rail and should have no excuses. Southern King has been winless for more than two years, but he usually gets a piece of the purse and seems like a logical exacta partner with our top pick. He’s a one-paced grinder but has enough tactical speed to inherit a good stalking position and then have his chance from there.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Reckoning Day; 2-Black Storm; 3-Devoted to You
Backups/savers: 6-El Diablo Rojo
Forecast: This $12,500 claiming sprint for older horses has several possibilities – some at good prices – so a “spread” strategy in rolling exotic play probably should be employed. Reckoning Day won a race at this level at Los Alamitos last month and if he duplicates that performance on the big track he can win right back. However, form doesn’t always travel well between the two ovals, so we’ll put him on top with a low degree of confidence. Black Storm, a $12,500 Steve Knapp claim after finishing third behind our top pick last time out, is a seven-time winner at Santa Anita and could easily turn the tables today. He lacks tactical speed but may be heard from late if the pace flow cooperates. Minnesota invader Devoted to You will be seeking ship-and-win bonus money, and though most of his recent races have been routing on grass the son of Bayern has sprinted successfully on dirt in the past and may be the most dangerous of the early speed types. El Diablo Rojo removes blinkers and drops to his lowest level ever, so this Craig Lewis-trained gelding, a two-time winner over the local main track, seems likely to perk up. Toss him in as a backup.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Rexford; 3-Captain Sparrow
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Rexford turns back from a mile, exits a productive race, and ran well sprinting on grass in his debut at Del Mar when missing by a neck, so the Phil D’Amato-trained son of Tapiture looks like the logical top pick in this six furlong grass dash for juveniles. He probably can’t beat a decent maiden, but this is a group he might be able to outrun. Captain Sparrow is a son of Speightstown with local drills that indicate he has some zip, and his pedigree suggests he should handle grass. In a race that appears below par, he’s a “must use.” None of the others are particularly inspiring, so let’s try to get by using just these two.
Notable Workouts:
Captain Sparrow (Oct. 16, 3f, :35.4hg). Grade: B
Broke sharply and displayed decent speed in solo gate drill for M. Glatt, :24 flat and :35.3 on our watches, mild coaxing only. Speightstown colt has some zip and should be competitive at first asking if no world beaters show up.
View Workout Video
Clooney (Oct. 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3hg). Grade: B-
Slightly best inside Quincy Market (same time) in gate drill for T. Yakteen, splits of :24.1, :36.3 and :48.3 under mild coaxing. Fair to moderate at this stage, doesn’t act like a particularly quick type at this stage.
View Workout Video
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