“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Lunatic; 6-Translate; 2-Suite Madam Blue
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a six furlong grass sprint with three main contenders that are hard to separate. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Lunatic (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1), claimed in three of her last four starts, is protected in this starter’s allowance event by new trainer R. Alvarado after being haltered for $16,000 out of a seven length romp on dirt that was visually impressive. She was 20 cent son the dollar in that race, so she obviously didn’t beat much, but her numbers was good, she retains F. Prat, and there’s no reason she shouldn’t be just as effective on grass. Translate (TOC=3/2; ML=3-1) was an easy winner over this course and distance two runs back but then failed to land a blow when fourth at even money at this level last time out. She projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Suite Madam Blue (TOC=5-1; ML=5/2) set good splits but was worn down late when earning a career top speed figure last month. She’s always been a bit suspect under pressure close home, but if she can shake loose early she could take this field a long way.
Notable Workouts:
Translate (March 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: B
Breezing outside Hogan’s Holiday (4f, :48.3h), the pair finishing head-and-head with splits of :24.1 and :49 flat on our watches looking fine. Has a dirt pedigree but has done all of her racing on grass so far. Certainly gets over the main track in good order.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-American Admiral ; 3-Balladeer
Forecast: The second race is a $150,000 maiden claiming main track miler. The entire field isn’t worth that amount. American Admiral was a $1.3 million yearling and remains winless after eight starts but is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and looks every bit of that on paper. The son of American Pharoah finished second in each of his last three starts and owns a massive edge in the speed figure department. Balladeer drops, returns to dirt, gets a break in the weights, has worked better recently and probably has enough improvement in him to warrant inclusion as a back-up or a saver on a ticket or two.
Notable Workouts:
Balladeer (March 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B-
No blinkers, high-actioned colt finished with something left under mild late coaxing in solo main track drill for R. Baltas, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.2. Not a speed type and not straight maiden material probably can improve with experience and distance.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Sweet California
Forecast: Five of the seven entrants in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for California-bred fillies and mares exit the same race last month. Sweet California ran the best of the bunch when finishing second as the favorite despite stumbling badly at the start and losing her best chance, so with a clean break today the daughter of Danzing Candy should be long gone. She gets a huge break in the weights (nine lbs.) with the switch to good bug boy D. Herrera and seems likely to go lower than her morning line of 2-1. In another race that probably doesn’t offer any real wagering value, you can use her as a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-Rosie Forecast
Forecast: Rosie Forecast flashed ability in her debut when a solid runner-up effort behind her same owner stable mate Increased Stakes, who franked the form by returning to wire the field in a non-winners of two grass dash last week. The daughter of Nyquist has every reason to improve – or at least run as well – and if she does the B. Cecil-trained sophomore filly should handle this state-bred group. At 3-1 on the morning line (with likelihood of going a bit lower) she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Affable (March 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B
Was ridden most of the way and doing his best after breaking off two lengths in front of Dr. Schivel (4f, :58.3h) and then finishing a half-length back at the wire (workmate coasting, tons best, looked terrific), splits of :23 flat, :34.3 and :59 flat, decent enough for M. Glatt. Likes the Santa Anita main track; form suggests she’s better sprinting than routing.
View Workout Video
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Fore Left; 6-Mongolian Wind
Forecast: Here’s a challenging first-level allowance dirt miler with a volatile pace scenario. The speed of the speed might be Fore Left (TOC=6-1; ML=6-1), who cut out quick splits but was nailed late in a seven furlong sprint in an effort that produced a career speed figure last month. This Midwest-based stable hasn’t had much luck at this meeting, but this son of Twirling Candy, a Grade-3 winner in Dubai in 2020, may be rounding back to top form and could help turn things around. At 6-1 on the morning line, he may be worth a bit of a gamble. Mongolian Wind (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1, a $40,000 R. Baltas claim in late January, returns on the raise in a sign of confidence, is solid on numbers but is winless in eight starts over the Santa Anita main track. He has enough tactical speed to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
Notable Workouts:
Affable (March 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B
Was ridden most of the way and doing his best after breaking off two lengths in front of Dr. Schivel (4f, :58.3h) and then finishing a half-length back at the wire (workmate coasting, tons best, looked terrific), splits of :23 flat, :34.3 and :59 flat, decent enough for M. Glatt. Likes the Santa Anita main track; form suggests she’s better sprinting than routing.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 7-Agreetodisagree; 6-Freedom Lass
Forecast: There are two main players in this starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares and both should be used in rolling exotic play. Agreetodisagree (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) failed in a similar spot at 3/5 last month while being used on the pace throughout (the DRF trouble line states that she broke slowly but she actually broke fine). The key to her success is the way she’s ridden; we suspect this time F. Prat will take her back and produce her late. Give that type of ride, the daughter of Runhappy should be capable of making amends. Freedom Lass (TOC=4-1; ML=7/2) is solid at this level but hasn’t won since November of 2020. Her speed figures are consistent and her tactical speed should allow for a trouble free trip, so after hitting the board in four of her last five starts the W. Spawr-trained mare may be ready to break on through.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Back Ring Luck; 5-There Goes Harvard; 4-Prince Maior
Forecast: This is a split of the fifth race and a bit more contentious. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough. Back Ring Luck (TOC=5/2; ML=4-1) has won four of his last five starts over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields with numbers that make him a major contender if he can transfer that form to the Santa Anita dirt strip. Two previous outings over the local track were disastrous but he could easily be a much better type now. The front-running gelding was a $32,000 claim by L. Barocio last time out, is raised to $50,000 today in a sign of confidence, and could use his favorable post to good advantage if he can become the controlling speed as seems likely.There Goes Harvard (TOC=3-1; ML=7/2) returns from the Midwest following a seven month layoff, and after earning a career top number when second in the Ellis Park Derby, the son of Will Take Charge makes his comeback in the proper spot, a first-level allowance main track miler. The work tab should have him fit enough, so at 7/2 on the morning line he has to be used. Prince Maior (TOC=7-1; ML=12-1) is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and seems a bit better than that. First or second in seven of 12 career starts, the Data Link colt can be effective on any surface and employs a good stalking style that should give him every chance. His numbers are improving, so at a price he’s worth tossing in.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Becca Taylor; 6-Eddie’s New Dream
Forecast: It’s difficult to pick against unbeaten Becca Taylor (TOC=Evens; ML=4/5), even though her numbers don’t make her a standout at a short price. She may be the type that does just what is necessary, but this will be her first start down the Hillside Course, so for protection we’ll also toss in Eddie’s New Dream (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1), a versatile and genuine filly exiting a series of tougher races and with speed figures that fit. ‘Taylor has a bit more tactical speed and that gives her an edge, but ‘Dream can rally from mid-pack and will be tough if she gets a little help up front.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Exultation; 9-Liberal; 2-Fly the Sky; 12-Keystone Field
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag matching a full field of familiar $25,000 starter’s allowance older horses competing over a mile. We’ll go four deep and hope to get a middle price horse home. Exultation (TOC=4-1; ML=4-1) has sprinted most of his career but can handle this trip (he’s one-one-one over this course and distance via disqualification) and stretches out again after a couple of speed-sharpening preps down the Hillside Course. We’re expecting the veteran gelding to settle into an ideal second flight, stalking position under Johnny V. and then have his chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. Liberal (TOC=8-1; ML=8-1) had a dreadful trip when forced to steady sharply while full of run at the furlong pole last time out and ran much better than the line will show. He’ll be running on strongly late, and with good racing luck should be right there at a square price. Fly the Sky (TOC=6-1; ML=8-1) returned to winning form when winning a lesser starter $25,000 event over nine furlongs last month in the same race that Liberal just finished sixth in. He earned a good number in victory and will have no difficulty shortening up, so from where he’s drawn the S. Knapp-trained gelding should get plenty of cover from a ground-saving position and be heard from late. Keystone Field (TOC=4-1; ML=7/2) has a big look off his best race but must overcome the extreme outside draw. He’s at his best when forwardly placed, so if he can get over and secure a stalking position he should be a factor throughout.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
