January 1, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Saffa’s Day; 4-Joker Boy
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this five runner $32,000 claiming sprint for older horses, so in a race that offers little wagering value we’ll the double the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out. Saffa’s Day, claimed for $50,000 two outings back, takes a class drop after a couple of disappointing runs since changing barns. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding has several back numbers that equal or exceed par for this level, and from his cozy outside draw the Carpe Diem gelding should have no excuses. Joker Boy is a former juvenile stakes winner still trying to find his proper level as an older performer. Most recently he failed to hit the board at 3/5 at Del Mar against his own age group but on numbers he’s competitive in a soft field, so we’ll toss him in.
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Mentirosa
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Mentirosa has just three rivals in this low level $20,000 claiming sprint restricted to newly-turned 3-year-olds and should be able to justify his 4/5 morning line status. Second in a similar event at Los Alamitos last month, the Jorge Periban-trained gelding can dictate the race from his outside draw and go with it when called upon. He’s a rolling exotic single in a race that offers no other wagering value.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Wudi; 6-Doinitthehardway
Backups/savers:
Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert holds the aces in this six-runner maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-old fillies, with preference on top to Wudi, listed as the second choice on the morning line at 5/2 just behind stable mate Doinitthehardway (2-1). The daughter of Uncle Mo was worn down late in her debut when finishing second while more than four lengths clear of the rest in an extended sprint that earned solid number. Wth that effort behind her combined with the shortening in trip, she looks ready to graduate. Doinitthehardway set the pace before weakening late when fourth in the middle distance Starlet Stakes-G1 behind her highly promising barn mate Faiza last month and this turn back to a sprint might bring out her best. She’s not as quick as Wudi but from her outside draw the daughter of Street Sense will have every chance to stalk, pounce and go. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Bali Dancer; 3-Awesome Pamela
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Bali Dancer exits a tougher starter’s allowance sprint in which she was overmatched and never a factor. This stretch out to a mile combined with a significant class drop to the restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level looks like the winning move. The extra distance shouldn’t be an issue and a repeat of her race before last – a game win against maiden $20,000 foes that earned a decent number – should be good enough. Awesome Pamela is a tad slower on figures than ‘Dancer but her runner-up effort two races back over this track and distance makes her the one to fear most.
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Kiss My Kat
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Three of the main players in this state-bred maiden sprint for older fillies and mares exit the same race last month at Del Mar but it really wasn’t much of a heat, so let’s look elsewhere. Kiss My Kat flashed big speed in her only outing 15 months ago, leading the way into the lane before weakening late to finish third, beaten six lengths, while earning fairly nice number. She returns protected in a sign of confidence and has been burning up the track preparing her comeback in a series of drills that includes a bullet :46 flat half mile drill (fastest of 44) seven days ago. She appears much the quickest of this band, so let’s gamble that she’s a better type this time around and back her in the in pool and in the various rolling exotics and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Little Rachel
Backups/savers: 1-Bowl of Cherries
Forecast: This $32,000 seller for older sprinting fillies and mares provides a good opportunity for Little Rachel to provide her new connections with a quick return on investment after being haltered for $20,000 when finishing third as the favorite at Del Mar six weeks ago. Double jumped in class, the Librado Barocio-trained mare returns to her favorite track (first or second in five of seven local starts), switches to Juan Hernandez, and easily fits in this tougher spot based on speed figures. A prototype late-running sprinter, she should be along in time for a barn that traditionally does quite well with the first-off-the-claim level. Bowl of Cherries, a $16,000 claim by Sergio Morfin two weeks ago, also has competitive speed figures and shouldn’t be out of her element despite the aggressive class boost. She’s won over this main strip in the past and gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to a promising bug rider. She’ll be a dangerous pace factor if she breaks running from the rail.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Justique
Backups/savers: 3-Lily Poo
Forecast: Justique is certain to be a short price to win this year’s edition of the Santa Ynez Stakes-G3 based on her two prior sprint victories, her breathtaking debut maiden score at Del Mar last July and her dominating Desi Arnaz Stakes score in November. Her one disappointing performance – a non-threatening third in between those two outings in the slowly-run Chandelier S.-G2 over a middle distance last fall – seems to indicate that she’s most comfortable as a late-running sprinter, and if that’s the case today’s seven furlong distance should once again bring out her best. However, the progressive Lily Poo, a smart winner of a highly rated maiden sprint at Del Mar last month, can’t be easily dismissed and in fact should be included somewhere on your ticket. Now in the Michael McCarthy barn after being purchased privately by a sharp outfit, the daughter of Tapiture should draft into a comfortable pace stalking/pressing position and then have every chance to hold off the favorite when set down for the drive.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Yo Time
Backups/savers: 6-Thirsty
Forecast: Debuting Yo Time was knocked down to favoritism in a similar maiden state-bred dirt sprint at Del Mar in late November but got behind horses inside during the early stages and appeared to greatly resent the kick back. He adds Lasix, draws a better post, and may run to expectations this time around. The son of Smiling Tiger probably has more gate quickness than he displayed, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see him on or near the lead throughout. Thirsty is a first time starter that went through the ring as a yearling for $97,000, and the son of Stay Thirsty has put together a solid work tab at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Peter Miller. He could come up a live item, so we’ll include him on our ticket as a backup or a saver.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
