February 4, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Bottle of Smoke; 4-Big Talker; 8-Doc Adams
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a competitive allowance optional claiming main track miler for older horses that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three and hope to get by. Bay area shipper Bottle of Smoke, freshened since November, is a genuine and consistent gelding that has done most of his good work on synthetic, but he’s capable of winning over conventional dirt as well and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, stalking trip from his favorable inside (post two) draw. The O. J. Jauregui-trained son of Northern Indy is solid on numbers and should fire a big shot off the bench after a long and length campaign through most of 2022. Big Talker has run well over this main track in the past and warrants a big look off his easy win two races back at Los Alamitos. He lacks tactical speed, but with some help up front he should be heard from late. Doc Adams is drawn a little farther out than we’d prefer (post eight) but is a three-time winner from just five starts over the local dirt strip and has several back numbers that are better than par for this level. The main concern is the somewhat suspicious class drop to $20,000 after having won four of his last five starts in better company. Sounds like he might be for sale.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Awesome Taylor; 5-Carpe Fortuna; 6-Glenall
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s another challenging affair, this one on grass over a mile for starter optional claiming fillies and mares. Awesome Taylor looks fairly intriguing, so we’ll give her the edge on top. Freshened since November and trying turf for the first time, the daughter of Classic Empire won her only previous two turn try on dirt at Oaklawn Park last year and shows a steady, healthy series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have her fit and ready. The Peter Miller-trained 4-year-old removes blinkers (love that angle), retains Flavian Prat, and should inherit an ideal pace-stalking early position. Carpe Fortuna is winless in five prior starts over the local lawn, but she has hit the board three times and is exiting a series of tougher allowance races. At this level, she can be dangerous on the front end under Frankie if not pressured early. Glenall surfaces in a claimer for the first time and in this league must be considered a major player. She has a prior win over this course and distance and could be dangerous if given the patient ride she prefers.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Worcester
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 drew just four starters, all from the Bob Baffert barn. Worcester is a maiden after two starts but actually might be the best prospect of the bunch. The late-running son of Empire Maker displayed improved by 19 Beyer speed figure points between his first and second starts and now stretches out for the first time to a distance he seems sure to enjoy. The other three Baffert starters are essentially speed types, so top rider Juan Hernandez can settle behind that trio and then go after the leaders when the field heads to the top of the lane. We’re fully expecting the late charge with be more than sufficient to tag the speed, so let’s make him a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Closing Remarks 2-Hamwood Flier
Backups/Savers: 1-Bay Storm
Forecast: Closing Remarks always has been a bit too one-paced to be a truly top class turf mare but it takes one to beat her, as recent Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner Queen Goddess has done in their last two confrontations. There’s nothing in this year’s renewal of the Megahertz Stakes-G3 that good so we’re expecting the Carla Gaines-trained mare to regain her winning form. An excellent second behind ‘Goddess in Robert J. Frankel Stakes-G3 in late December, the California-bred daughter of Vronsky should step forward in her second start off a layoff, and in race loaded with speed she projects to settle in the second flight and then have every chance from the quarter pole home to grind out a victory. Turf master trainer Phil D’Amato has three entrants in field, the most dangerous of which may be Hamwood Flier, the speedy Irish-bred mare who finished fourth in the Matriarch S.-G1 at Del Mar in early December behind subsequent champion Regal Glory. A dyed-in-the-wool front runner, the daughter of Kodiac should have things to herself up front, and against this cut-below-the-best field she may be able to stick it out. A repeat of her victory over this course and distance in the listed Swingtime Stakes two runs back will make her especially dangerous. Drawn just inside of Hamwood Flier on the fence is Bay Storm, who seems sure to inherit a stalking, ground-saving trip. First or second in eight of 11 career outings, the South Florida shipper is quite competitive on speed figures and is worthing including on your ticket, at least as a backup.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:14 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Rhythem On Stage; 2-Upward Mobility
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Four of these exit the same race won by next out winner Cousteau and the other three are first time starters. Let’s use the best of each grouping. Rhythem On Stage finished second in the aforementioned race last month and in fact has been a runner-up in both of his last two starts. The Carla Gaines-trained gelding lacks tactical speed but usually finds himself within range at the head of the lane, and after four career starts he’s due to produce a forward move. If he’s what his form says he is (no world beater) there’s a reasonable opportunity for a fresh face in this six furlong dirt sprint for state-bred sophomores. The Peter Miller-trained Upward Mobility has been hidden away at San Luis Rey Downs but he’s bred to win early (Smiling Tiger), and the work tab contains some decent moves so we suspect he can run enough to be a threat first crack out of the box, especially with Ramon Vasquez, one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, taking the call.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:51 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Tom’s Beauty; 1-Ready Jet Go; 3-Briefcase Girl
Backups/savers: 10-Carmen Miranda
Forecast: Tom’s Beauty didn’t get the clearest of runs when rallying to finish a good third before galloping out strongly in a similar grass dash for first-level allowance fillies and mares at Del Mar in November and returns with an extra furlong to work with over a course she’s won on in the past. The lightly raced filly likes to settle and blast home, and with good racing luck and a decent pace to set things up the Jeff Mullins-trained 4-year-old should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Ready Jet Go, a willing fourth in the same race our top pick exits, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip and is likely to be heard from late. Briefcase Girl ran quite well over this course and distance during the fall season and a repeat of that performance today puts her squarely in the hunt. Also worth tossing in, at least as a backup, is Carmen Miranda, primarily a miler but a possible late threat under Flavian Pride despite her extreme outside draws.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:21 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Arrowthegreat; 3-Big Hat Willie; 8-Motorcade
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Arrowthegreat displayed a reasonable amount of ability in his only start last summer at Del Mar, appearing a bit green and very late changing leads when rallying steadily to be second behind Newgate in a decent maiden special weight sprint for juveniles. The son of Arrogate returns for trainer Dan Blacker in this seven furlong affair with Lasix and without blinkers for a barn that has solid stats with comeback runners. The work tab looks promising, so if he returns as well as he left this sophomore gelding may be the one to beat. Big Hat Willie, second off a $50,000 claim by Peter Miller, remains protected in maiden optional claiming company in a sign of confidence, and with improving speed figures and the proper style for this extended sprint trip the son of First Samurai seems likely be a heard from in the late stages. He finished a solid runner-up behind class dropper Nullarbor last time out in the same race that the slow starting first timer Motorcade rallied to finish third in a promising debut. The son of Lookin At Lucky hails from the John Sadler barn, which boasts very strong stats with the second time starter angle. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one of the three listed above, with the edge on top going to Arrowthegreat.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:53 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Escape Artist
Backups/savers: 11-Eastbound; 4-Maltese Falcon
Forecast: This nine furlong maiden turf affair for sophomores is a better than average affair that promises to be slowly run early with a projected race flow that might greatly benefit the second time starter Escape Artist. The son of Good Magic established the running and proved hard to down when a promising runner-up in a similar affair over a mile in late December, and despite today’s longer nine furlong trip the Michael McCarthy-trained ridgling should have every chance to the control this field gate to wire. He’ll get Lasix while retaining Johnny V. for a barn that has useful stats with second time starters, so let’s give him the edge on top. Eastbound must overcome an extreme outside draw but ran well in a runner-up performance to next out Sham Stakes winner Reincarnate over the local lawn two races back when finding his best stride late to be well clear of the others. A subsequent main track outing was disappointing, but we expect a snap back performance with this surface switch back to grass. Maltese Falcon finished with interest when fourth in the same race our top pick exits and seems quite capable of stepping forward with that effort underneath him. Second of 14 in his debut in England last fall, the son of Caravaggio has the makings of a useful colt and gets Lasix, Frankie, and more distance to promote his closing kick.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:23 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Fun to Dream
Backups/savers: 5-Awake At Midnyte
Forecast: Fun to Dream and Awake At Midnyte finished one-two in the La Brea S.-G1 over this track and distance in late December while more than three lengths clear of the rest and it will be somewhat surprising if they don’t do so again in this year’s edition of the Santa Monica S.-G2 for older fillies and mares. There’s a two pound weight shift in favor of ‘Midnyte, for whatever that’s worth, but ‘Dream has a bit more tactical speed in a race that projects to have soft early splits. In a race that probably should be left alone, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:53 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Air Force Red; 10-Dark Shift
Backups/savers: 3-Anaconda
Forecast: Air Force Red has won his last two races with authority and probably has even more improvement in him. The Leonard Powell-trained gelding now has captured half of his 10 career starts, and while he’s probably most comfortable as the controlling speed he can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates. His win down the hill in the Joe Hernandez Stakes earned a career top speed figure and his Lure Stakes triumph before that showed he could handle this two turn mile trip. Dark Shift didn’t bring his best stuff in his U.S. debut at Keeneland last fall when failing to land a blow in a strong allowance middle distance affair, but he was a high class handicapper last year in Europe, with victories that included the 29-runner Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, so you have to respect him, especially with Frankie in the saddle. Eastern shipper Anaconda has won over this course in the past and has recent numbers in New York that make him dangerous. Comfortably drawn in post three, the Joe Sharp-trained veteran should draft into a cozy, second flight early position and then have every chance from there.
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