March 11, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-El Potente; 3-Derecho Dandy; 1-Circleofchampions
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race was handicapped for turf only. El Potente wired a maiden $50,000 claiming field with a huge, career-top speed figure sprinting on grass last time out and is understandably protected today in this starter’s allowance turf miler over a mile. The son of Temple City is unproven around two turns – his only prior route try came on dirt at Oaklawn Park last year when he made the running but failed to see out the trip – but based on his last start he’s a lot better now than then and his pedigree suggests he actually should most comfortable over a distance of ground. Derecho Dandy and Circleofchampions, most recently two-three in a similar event at nine furlongs, project to be in the fray throughout and neither should mind this shorter distance. We’ll have tickets using all three in our rolling exotics with preference on top to El Potente.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Daddysruby
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Daddysruby was a pleasing debut winner at Golden Gate Fields in January and was subsequently purchased privately by a sharp group of owners and transferred to the Peter Miller barn. Her number was strong and makes her the one to beat in this first level allowance sprint for California-bred sophomore fillies, but she still has to show she can be equally effective over conventional dirt. Also, the rail is no bargain, but based on her first outing she looks like a cut above the norm for this level and thus a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Crowining Gold; 5-Crypto Ride
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Crowning Gold was beaten as the 9/5 favorite when second in a similar starter optional claiming sprint last month but was a couple of lengths clear of the rest in a solid performance that produced a career top speed figure. Not much more will be needed today for the Brian Koriner-trained colt. Crypto Ride, third in the same race our top pick exits, removes blinkers (like that angle) and projects to settle into an ideal stalking spot and have every chance from there. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Irish Rose
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race was handicapped for turf only. Irish Rose was a live item in her debut and ran to her backing when second with a less than ideal trip behind the promising Teena Ella in a similar maiden grass sprint for sophomore fillies. The Neil Drysdale barn rarely wins with first time starters, so under the circumstances this was a sharp performance by the daughter of Irish Surf, who was forced to angle out sharply when placed in tight quarters in mid-stretch before gathering herself late and finishing with courage and energy. The rail isn’t necessarily ideal for a filly who may be the type that does her best running late, but with better luck today she should be along in time. At 4-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Forbidden Kingdom; 3-Spirit of Makena
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Forbidden Kingdom, a graded stakes winner over this track and distance last year, showed plenty of moxie when staying on gamely to wind up second behind Taiba in the Malibu Stakes-G1 in December after appearing to be left for dead when passed quickly by the eventually winner at the head of the lane. The son of American Pharoah actually ran a winning race in defeat and should be hard to catch in this year’s renewal of the San Carlos S.-G3 for older sprinters. The up-and-coming Spirit of Makena is the main challenger. The lightly raced 5-year-old son of Ghostzapper, has had had just three starts (with two wins) while earning speed figures that put him right there with ‘Kingdom. He’ll likely draft into a pace-stalking position outside and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and will use both in our rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-I Don’t Get It
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: After a promising debut sprint prep that really caught the eye, I Don’t Get It finished fourth in a similar two turn maiden affair last month after losing all chance at the start when stumbling badly before doing extremely well to rally in a performance that by all rights should have produced a win. The race itself was a fast, highly rated affair captured by Skinner, who verified the strength of the speed figure by finishing a strong third in last week’s Sn Felipe Stakes. The son of Cloud Computing shows a healthy six furlong gate work seven days ago to have him primed and ready, so with a clean start and good racing luck the Doug O’Neill-trained sophomore should be capable of handling this assignment while offering excellent wagering value at or near his morning line of 5/2.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:29 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Russells Hustle; 3-Ice Storm
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. Russells Hustle finished a distant third over the local main track two races back in an effort that wasn’t half bad and can beat this field even if there is a surface switch, while his turf form appears more than good enough against this below par field of maiden $50,000 sophomores over a nine furlongs. A one-paced, grinding type, the son of Noble Mission switches to Flavian Prat and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, stalking trip. Ice Storm had a poor run in his only prior grass start so his connections probably are hoping the race comes of the grass. The Frosted gelding is competitive on numbers and should have no difficult handling the extra distance. These are the two that get our attention in a lackluster affair that probably should be handled with care.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Fun to Dream
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Fun to Dream has won six of seven career starts, including four stakes, but she’s only been tried over a distance of ground one time, and that was perhaps her most visually impressive score to date in an allowance race last fall over this track and distance by nearly five lengths. Certainly bred to run long, the daughter of Arrogate stretches out again, and based on her dominant speed figures and every other metric that we can find the Bob Baffert-trained filly should be extremely hard to beat. Likely to draft into a second flight, stalking position from her outside draw under regular pilot Juan Hernandez, she is listed at 5/2 on the morning line for this year’s edition of the Beholder Mile-G1 and that price is worth an aggressive play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Chloe’s Crown; 3-Very Scary
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This race has been handicapped for turf only. Chloe’s Crown is progressing nicely in her brief career, stretching out in her most recent outing over this course and distance to graduate in solid fashion with a speed figure that makes her competitive right back in this first level allowance event. With another forward move, one that should be well within her range, the Michael McCarthy-trained daughter of Declaration of War can score again at the generous morning line of 8-1. We’re expecting to see her draft into the second flight and have every chance from there. Very Scary took an optional claiming field gate to wire over a mile on the local lawn last month with a career top number and similar front running tactics likely will be employed again at this longer distance. She was claimed out of a maiden $20,000 event last summer at Del Mar and has come quite a ways since then for trainer Ian Kruljac. Rejuvenated Kent Desormeaux rides her back. ays since then for trainer Ian Kruljac. Rejuvenated Kent Desormeaux rides her back.
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