March 4, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Conclude
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race has been shortened to five and one-half furlongs over the flat course. Conclude did everything but win in his debut when winding up second (beaten a half-length) to a more experienced colt after displaying excellent speed before weakening in final 50 yards. With that bit of experience behind him, the son of Collected should be fitter and tougher for a barn that has solid stats with the second-time starter angle. He’s had four easy breezes to tick him over in the interim, so with Flavian Prat riding him back, the Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore seems solid in a race that is likely to have modest early fractions. We’ll take anywhere near his morning line of 5/2 in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:28 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Unwritten Code
Backups/savers: 6-Charlotte Harbor
Forecast: Unwritten Code has won her last four starts and is getting faster by the race. Three of the four victories were blowouts, including a five length romp last month in a state-bred first level allowance race, but she remains eligible to this starter’s allowance condition with speed figures that give her a strong chance to extend her winning streak. If there’s a concern, it’s that she is going from a cozy outside draw to the sometimes treacherous rail, so she’ll have leave cleanly to secure her coveted front running position. Charlotte Harbor is the most dangerous closer in the field and should be included on your ticket, at least as a backup. Back sprinting where she might be most effective, the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly has improved considerably since changing barns last summer, and if our top pick gets pressured early the daughter of Munnings might be heard from late.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:58 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-King Apollo
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race has been shortened to five and one-half furlongs over the flat course. King Apollo was a tad unlucky when rallying after a slow start to finish a game second in a similar starter allowance ($50,000) turf sprint in his first outing since last May and with only slight improvement this prototype late running turf sprinter can be along in time for a stable that has superior stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle. The son of Palace Malice switches to Johnny V., has a strong and healthy work pattern since raced, and seems sure to deliver a forward move after producing a career top speed figure last time out. Let’s take a stand and make the Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:24 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Kangaroo Court
Backups/Savers: 3-Bus Buzz
Forecast: Kangaroo Court was one of the most impressive maiden winners last summer at Del Mar when he destroyed state-bred foes like a future stakes performer. This will be his first start since, but the way the son of Dad’s Caps has been training he should return at least as good as he left. The Tim Yakteen-trained gelding gets Lasix and Flavian Prat and is drawn outside the other main speed (Bus Buzz), so the option is there to either pop and go or stalk and pounce. Bus Buzz graduated at first asking with a huge number by eight widening lengths last month from Catalina Eddy, who returned to frank the form when winning his next start in solid fashion. Edwin Maldonado stays aboard ‘Buzz, and as a noted speed rider he won’t be waiting around for anyone. Both should be included on your ticket, but our main punch will go to Kangaroo Court.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:55 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Quatroelle; 2-Macadamia; 1-Closing Remarks
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Buena Vista Stakes over a mile for fillies and mares is a typical grass grab bag matching runners who know each other well and seem to take turns beating one another. So, whose turn will it be today? Quattroelle just won the Megahertz Stakes-G3 over this course and distance last month with a furious late kick into the teeth of slow fractions in what certain was a career top performance. If she runs back to that race, she can repeat, though it must be pointed out that despite having four lifetime victories on her resume (all over the local lawn), she’s never registered back-to-back wins. Macadamia looked good winning a second level allowance race here in early February with a career top speed figure and should be prominent throughout in a race that might not have much early pace. The Brazilian import is progressing while acclimating and could easily step forward again. Closing Remarks is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post and should turn in her usual honest effort. She lacks a true turn of foot but will be in the fray throughout and have every chance. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, with a slight preference on top to Quattroelle.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:27 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Skinner; 3-Practical Moon
Backups/savers: 2-National Treasure; 7-Hejazi; 8-Geaux Rocket Ride
Forecast: We’ll spread the San Felipe Stakes-G2, a contentious 3-year-old prep for Derby-aged runners and one that has a volatile pace projection that makes the race shape hard to predict. The two committed speeds – Hejazi and Geaux Rocket Ride –could possibly hook up early, and since neither one really wants to be rated the early fractions could be quite fast. If the splits are hot (say, :46 and change or even quicker), both may have a difficult time seeing out the trip. The beneficiary of this scenario could be the recent hot maiden winner Skinner, who settled off the pace, rallied wide and won with plenty left in a fast, highly rated mile affair in his first start since last fall. Clearly a better type now, the son of Curlin has breezed very impressively since his win and can be expected to step forward again despite the obvious raise in class. Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 winner Practical Joke is another that continues to move in the right direction. He’s had five previous runs – a solid foundation for what should be a rugged sophomore campaign – and has looked extremely sharp in recent workouts to indicate he’s ready to produce another forward move. National Treasure has finished in the frame in all four career outings with legitimate numbers and his stalking style should keep him free of trouble, but after just failing under pressure at 3/5 in the four-runner Sham Stakes-G3, he may not be totally trustworthy. Our wagering strategy is to prefer the second flight runners, using both on the main ticket in our rolling exotics and then pressing with extra tickets keying Skinner on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Carmelita’s Man; 8-Lincoln Hawk; 4-Time to Party
Backups/savers: 1-Flashiest
Forecast: This inscrutable second level allowance optional claimer has several runners that legitimately can win, so how aggressive you may want to attack may be dictated by what your budget will allow. Carmelita’s Man always gives his best, having finished first or second in 13 of 23 career starts, but he’s a deep closer and therefore pace dependent. This race most likely will have creepy-crawler earlier splits, so his task will be difficult. The same can be said for Lincoln Hawk, who is just 2-for-17 in his career, but at least those two victories were accomplished over the local lawn. Time to PartyFlashiest didn’t fire in a similar spot last time out but his closing runner-up performance two races back in the San Gabriel S.-G2 charts very well in this spot.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Snapp Daddy; 10-Stop and a Tres
Backups/Savers: 6-Vinny the Coin
Forecast: Snapp Daddy surfaces in a claimer after two runs vs. conditional maiden allowance foes and may have found his winning level in an extended sprint that looks fairly weak on paper. The Peter Eurton-trained colt finished a reasonable sixth behind Henry Q. in his last start and was flattered when that colt returned to win the Mine That Bird Stakes at Sunland Park on Tuesday by nearly 15 lengths. He’ll face nobody even remotely good as ‘Henry today. Stop and a Tres shows steadily rising speed figures and with another forward move today should be the one to fear most. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding projects to be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Vinny the Coin, a first time Lasix user and first time gelding, has been freshened since November and definitely has enough early speed to be on or near the lead against this group. He was disappointing as the beaten choice in his last start, but his debut wasn’t bad and if repeated today under Flavian Prat should give him a good chance to at least hit the board.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Honey Jar; 4-Carmen Miranda
Backups/savers: 1-Runninwiththeboyz
Forecast: Honey Jar couldn’t quite stay a mile despite an ideal front-running trip in her most recent start so she is wisely returned to a sprint in this first level allowance Hillside dash that offers a favorable race flow. The lightly raced mare projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout, and while she’s always been vulnerable close home the daughter of Kantharos may be able to stick this one out. Carmen Miranda seems likely to enjoy a smooth stalking trip and is the one to fear most. Second in a fast turf sprint over the flat course last month, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly retains Flavian Prat and is solid in the speed figure department. Runninwiththeboyz seeks her fourth straight win, though she’ll have to do so from the disadvantage rail draw. Genuine, versatile, and effective at any trip, the daughter of Liam’s Map likely will settle in the second flight and then accelerate when asked crossing the dirt. She’s a tad shy on numbers but shows a rising pattern, and in just her sixth career start could easily be this good with another forward move.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Synthesis
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: New York shipper Synthesis, a five-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, returns from the East for this starter allowance ($25,000) extended sprint and looks ideally spotted to cash in right off the plane. The David Jacobson owned and trained gelding has numbers at Aqueduct that would bury this field, so if he reproduces his best form and can avoid trouble from the rail he should be hard to beat. Let’s make him a strong win play and a logical rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 3-1.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Hong Kong Harry; 4-Air Force Red
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Hong Kong Harry is a terrific, high class, middle distance specialist with a perfect record (three-for-three) over the Santa Anita turf course and rates top billing in this year’s edition of the Frank E. Kilroe Mile-G1. He has never taken a backward move since being imported from England while producing a career top speed figure in his most recent appearance in the Seabiscuit Handicap-G2 at Del Mar in November. Freshened since then but showing a steady, healthy series of recent workouts that should have him fit and ready, the Irish-bred gelding has consistently run well off layoffs in the past, so there should be little doubt that trainer Phil D’Amato has hm cranked and ready. Air Force Red always is dangerous as the controlling speed, and if he can shake loose early without pressure he could easily dominate gate to wire. A five-time winner over the local lawn, the Leonard Powell-trained ridgeling lost a toughie in the Thunder Road Stakes-G3 in his most recent outing when relegated to a stalker’s role but he’s likely to make the running today and fire his best shot. We’ll prefer Hong Kong Harry on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 12: Post: 5:31 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Hopper; 5-Defunded
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Hopper had every right to be a short horse when returning in the nine furlong San Pasqual Stakes-G2 following a nearly eight month layoff and did remarkably well to finish second after establishing all of the running and then carrying his speed until the final 70 yards. He’ll be fitter, stronger, and primed for a career top performance today. His pedigree okay’s the Big ‘Cap’s 12 furlong trip, and with a strong six furlong breeze in company and appearing a tad the best with Defunded since that race the son of Declaration of War should be set to step forward big time. Lightly raced (just four starts), the Bob Baffert-trained colt may have upside that the others don’t, so let’s put him on top while also including Defunded, an admirable second in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational G-1 in his most recent outing in late January. The veteran Dialed Up gelding always has loved the local main track (first or second in five of six career starts) and could find himself on the lead or in a stalking position depending upon how Baffert orchestrates the race. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Hopper.
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