Jeff Siegel’s Blog: “What You Need to Know for Santa Anita – Saturday, May 11, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Saturday, May 11, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Lucky N Smart
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Lucky N Smart displayed ability in his recent sprint debut when overcoming a slow start to rally with interest to be second while apparently wanting more ground. With that bit of experience behind him, the C. Gaines-trained Cal-bred gelding should produce a significant forward move, one that could easily produce a diploma in this moderate grass miler. At 3-1 on the morning line and with U. Rispoli riding him back, the son of Vronsky offers value in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single. The barn has had a very slow year so far and is overdue to manufacture some victories.

RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Stay On the Fence
Backups/savers: 5-Immelmann.

Forecast: Stay On the Fence just finished a distant but willing runner-up in the fast, highly rated Echo Eddie S. behind Shady Tiger and faces nothing even remotely as good in this five-runner allowance optional claiming sprint for California-bred sophomores. The main concern is his lack of early speed in this abbreviated dash, and while we suspect he’ll be good enough to tag the leaders close him, he probably won’t be offering much value at 8/5 on the morning line. You can use him as a single in rolling exotic play or better yet just pass the race.

RACE 3: Post: 2:06 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Invincible Molly (GB); 4-Soho.
Backups/savers: 2-Elegant.

Forecast: None of these are trustworthy so the safest way to survive and advance is to spread the race, maybe even buy it. Invincible Molly (GB) has enough early speed to be forwardly placed in this five runner affair and with blinkers being added for the first time she’s likely to find herself in an ideal pace pressing/forcing early position. She should be able to use her rail draw to good advantage if she breaks with her field. Soho has been away since last October but she did win sprinting on turf in her debut, so we know she can fire fresh. However, her comeback works have been just okay, nothing more. Tread lightly here.

RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Satellite Heart; 3-We’ll Do It Live.
Backups/savers: 5-Beau Soleil.

Forecast: Here’s another affair that looks difficult and should be approached with caution. Satellite Heart returns at the same level she just won at for new trainer R. Hess, Jr. after squeaking out a neck win over this track and distance last month. She lands the cozy outside draw and should fire a similar shot today. We’ll Do It Live, a narrow runner-up behind our top pick in that same affair, should have a strong pace presence throughout and could be tough to run down if she can shake loose early.

RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Tom’s Regret
Backups/savers: 1-Spicybug.

Forecast: Tom’s Regret has been away since winning a state-bed stakes dirt sprint at Pleasanton last summer, but we know she can fire fresh (she won her debut by 11 lengths) and her recent workouts, while not flashy, should have her fit enough to score off the bench in this six furlong grass sprint for second level allowance fillies and mares. Effective on any surface and projected to be the controlling speed in a field that has little of it, the S. Miyadi-trained 4-year-old was beaten a neck in her only prior grass outing, the Senorita S. down the Hillside course here last year. The barn has strong stats with layoff runners and regular pilot K. Frey stays aboard, so at 5-1 on the morning line in a five-runner affair she offers superior value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post: 3:42 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Battle Cruiser
Backups/savers: 2-Precision Strike.

Forecast: Battle Cruiser exits a pair of infinitely tougher races and should find this maiden optional claiming field well within his capabilities. The J. Sadler-trained colt shows the always popular two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern combined with the maiden to maiden claiming class drop, plus the switch to top rider J. Hernandez and a healthy recent work pattern that should have him cranked and ready in his first outing since February. If the son of Catalina Cruiser can run, this would be a good place to show it.

RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Ferrariano
Backups/savers: 3-What a Dude

Forecast: Ferrariano has been sparingly raced and shows up in a seller for the first time, so the pattern is suspect, but the form suggests that with anything close to his best race he should be able to handle this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming field. The B. Koriner-trained gelding has a prior win over the local lawn and has the tactical speed to secure a comfortable pace stalking position. A bullet five furlong workout (:59 2/5) at Los Alamitos is positive factor, so at 2-1 on the morning line we’ll simply have to hope that he has at least one good one left.

RACE 8: Post: 4:46 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 4-Tom Horn
Backups/savers: 8-California Tiger; 10-Disobey.

Forecast: Tom Horn reeled off three sharp wins last summer before going to the sidelines, and if he returns as well as he left the S. Miyadi-trained colt can pick up where he left off in this first level allowance dash for Cal-breds. He’s fast on figures and has the proper second flight style for this extended sprint distance, so with top rider J. Hernandez picking up the mount the son of Grazen looks live and well-meant.

RACE 9: Post: 5:18 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 7-Musical Rhapsody (Ire).
Backups/savers: 2-Vincero Grande; 6-Duvet Day.

Forecast: Musical Rhapsody (Ire) is a true marathoner, having won at 12 furlongs last year in Ireland over the all-weather and finishing second at a mile and one-half earlier this meeting when chasing home the presently unbeatable Linda’s Gift. Without having to worry about Linda today, the Irish-bred mare should be able to pick up a black type score. Fresh from a sharp tally is an allowance affair over 10 furlongs here last month, the P. D’Amato-trained import seems likely to go lower than her 8/5 morning line. M. Smith stays aboard and knows her well.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: “What You Need to Know for Santa Anita – Saturday, May 11, 2024

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