January 29, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Sareeha
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Sareeha is listed at 6/5 on the morning line in this maiden special weight grass event over nine furlongs, so while she appears to be a logical winner there won’t be much wagering value to be found. The Irish-bred filly has finished second in her last five outings – most recently at 4/5 in a similar affair in November at Del Mar – so she may be a hard one to trust, but this will be her first in blinkers and her recent work tab is steady and healthy, so for the Graham Motion-trained daughter of Shamardal it’s pretty much a case now or never.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Faustin; 1-Havanameltdown
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the San Vicente Stakes-G2 drew just five runners, four of which hail from the Bob Baffert barn. Faustin, quite smart in a debut win last month on opening day, returns in this logical spot over what should be an ideal seven furlong distance for his stalk and close style. The Curlin colt earned a powerful speed figure in victory in what we suspect will prove to be a highly productive race, so this move into stakes company should be well within his scope. Stable mate Havnameltdown has been successful in three of four career outings, two of which were graded stakes, and has the stronger resume (so far) and therefore likely will go favorite. His rail post will force his hand but the son of Uncaptured is a quick sort and the likely pacesetter, so if he’s not pressured early could easily take this field gate to wire.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Sonoran
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: It took a possibly top class colt in Faustin to prevent Sonoran from winning at first asking but the son of Ride On Curlin lost little in defeat when second in a fast, highly rated race last month. The Bob Baffert-trained colt came back to breeze in :59 3/5 (seventh fastest of 53, slightly best in a team drill) last week, so we’re expecting a forward move from this talented sophomore, which brought $230,000 at the OBS sale last summer. Johnny V. stays aboard, Lasix is added, so at 4/5 on the morning line we’ll make him a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Grazed My Heart
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: This starter optional claiming turf sprint for sophomore fillies looks made to order for the stakes winning Grazed My Heart, a thoroughly genuine and consistent daughter of Grazen. A perfect two-for-two over the Santa Anita turf course, the Jeff Mullins-trained filly earned a career top speed figure winning the Cal Cup Oaks and before that was an excellent runner-up in the Soviet Problem Stakes. She is eligible to this race for having raced (and claimed for) $50,000 earlier in her career, so at 9/5 on the morning line but likely to go lower she is a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Big Buzz; 3-High Heater; 1-Next Revolt
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the fifth race, a $20,000 main track miler for older horses. Big Buzz much prefers dirt and seems certain to snap back to good form after failing to land a blow in a slightly stronger event on grass just seven days ago. Always most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the veteran son of Mr. Big remains above his claim level, retains top rider Juan Hernandez, and has several recent speed figures that are better than par for this league. High Heater, first off the Steve Knapp claim (18% with a strong ROI with this angle), projects to enjoy a comfortable pace stalking trip through moderate fractions and should have every chance from the quarter pole home. He is reunited with “win rider” Tiago Pereira and is a “must use” in the rolling exotics. Next Revolt, a $20,000 claim by Bob Hess, Jr., is wheeled back at the same level and switches to Flavian Prat, who has won on him in the past. He’s stretching out after a series of sprints and should be prominent early and saving ground throughout.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Greenbow
Backups/savers: 4-El Potente; 10-Chicago Soldier
Forecast: This maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses on grass may produce significant improvement from the class dropping Greenbow, our top selection and good value play at or near his morning line of 7/2. The 5-year-old son of Runhappy has been seeing considerably tougher foes in straight maiden races but actually earned a decent speed figure when fifth over this course and distance two races back after finishing a troubled fifth, beaten four lengths in a race last fall. Freshened since mid-November and showing a steady, healthy series of recent works, the Richard Mandella-trained horse adds blinkers for the first time, retains regular rider Umberto Rispoli, and should find himself in the second flight, ready to pounce when called upon. Worth including on saver tickets are El Potente and Chicago Soldier. The former was a respectable third with a career top number vs. similar on dirt in his recent comeback and should be able to build on that effort over a surface he’s bred to like. The latter returns as a first time gelding for hot trainer Mark Glatt and seems likely to produce a dangerous late kick.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Ceiling Crusher
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ceiling Crusher was highly impressive graduating at first asking last June over the local main track like a stakes-quality prospect but then had to be stopped on. She returns with a very good series of workouts – including an impressive solo gate drill in 1:00 flat seven days ago – to have her fit and ready, and from her cozy outside draw this gifted daughter of Mr. Big can easily to dictate the race flow. At 8/5 on the morning line and certain to go lower, she’s a standout in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Motorious
Backups/savers: 7-Lane Way
Forecast: Motorious shows a pair of recent powerful victories against allowance foes and the English-bred gelding projects to continue his winning ways today while moving into listed stakes company. A prototype late-running sprinter, the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding retains Flavian Prat and based on speed figures seems likely to settle early and then blow on by late. His 2-1 morning line offers a good gambling price if you can get it. Lane Way can be used as a backup or a saver. First or second in six of seven career starts on grass, the son of Into Mischief is solid on numbers, proven over the tricky Hillside Course, and should draft into a comfortable stalking position and have his chance from the top of the lane to the wire.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Big Drinker; 8-Thirsty
Backups/savers: 7-Regulation Dazed
Forecast: We’ll triple the finale, a maiden claiming dirt sprint for state-bred 3-Year-olds. Big Drinker, third in both of his starts to date in similar company, produced a massive raise in speed figures when overcoming a slow start to miss by a half-length earlier this month. With another forward move today (and with a clean start from the gate), the Stay Thirsty colt should be hard to beat. Thirsty displayed plenty of zip in his debut vs. straight maidens but stopped badly in the final furlong to be well-beaten. How much stick he has to his zip remains to be seen, but with a clean break the Peter Miller-trained gelding should be able to clear the field and have every chance to wire the field. Regulation Dazed also sports the first time-in-a-claimer angle and seems certain to improve at this level. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding returns to dirt, has numbers that fit, and with a trouble-free trip seems likely to be within range throughout.
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