March 19, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Law Abiding
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf sprint came up especially weak. Law Abiding should be quick enough to utilize his rail draw to good advantage in his first try with blinkers, and with several back speed figures that are good enough to win at this level the son of Jimmy Creed looks well-spotted for a major effort. He’s won over this course but has been consistently overmatched since breaking his maiden last fall. This should be his level, so in a six runner affair let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Shanghai Sunrise; 6-Double Fantasy
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s another restricted claimer, this one a $16,000 (nw-3) main track sprint for older fillies and mares. Shanghai Sunrise chased much tougher foes in her last three starts and should greatly appreciate the class drop. She has numbers that can win, and both of her victories were accomplished over the Santa Anita main track. At 5-1 on the morning line she offers reasonable wagering value. Double Fantasy also fits on figs but has been started and stopped on a few times in a brief career and was a voided claim after winning three races back. She’s drawn comfortably outside and projects to inherit an ideal stalking trip. We’ll try to get by using just these two, with Shanghai Sunrise the preferred pick on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-The Chosen Vron
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The Chosen Vron has 10 wins from 14 career starts, most of those victories earned in California-bred company such as the group he’s facing in this year’s edition of the Sensational Star Stakes for turf sprinters down the hill. He’s 3/5 on the morning line and probably will leave even shorter. Fresh from a career top victory in the Tiznow Stakes over a distance of ground, the veteran gelding is every bit as good sprinting and probably is most effective on grass, making today’s conditions simply ideal. He’s a free bingo square in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Busker Allie; 3-Parco
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares attracted just five runners, but each has legitimate credentials to win. Busker Allie shows up in a seller for the first time, gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Alsagoor, and projects to enjoy a soft, ground-saving trip. She lacks tactical speed but has numbers that are good enough to win at this level, so we’ll put her on top but not with a high degree of confidence. Parco stretches out again, adds blinkers, and looks on paper to be the controlling speed. She is relatively slow on speed figures but has won over this track and distance in the past and could get brave if left alone early. These are the two we’ll prefer in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need go deeper or even buy the field, go right ahead.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Mas Rapido; 7-Rexford
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Mas Rapido and Rexford, two-three finishers in a similar downhill turf sprint in late January, square off again, this time in an abbreviated grass dash over the flat course. We’re fairly convinced the winner will be one or the other. ‘Rapido switches to Frankie and projects to be on or near the lead throughout while Rexford is likely to settle into an ideal stalking position and then have every chance to wear down his rival close home. We’ll give Mas Rapido the slight nod on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:01 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-McLaren Vale; 2-Armagnac
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Armagnac launches a comeback for trainer Bob Baffert and probably will be the controlling speed in his first start since trailing badly in the Shared Belief Stakes last summer at Del Mar. He’s worked well enough to be fit and ready and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track with numbers that are better than par for the level, but he’s never been one to trust and at 8/5 on the morning line in a five runner event doesn’t really offer much wagering value. McLaren Vale probably is more attractive at 5/2 on the morning line. The John Sadler-trained colt, pitched too high when unplaced in the Palos Verdes Stakes-G3 last month, should find this group with his range while stretching out to a distance that he has won at in the past. He should draft into a cozy stalking position during the early stages of this race and may even find himself in front if that’s the game plan choose to employ. Both should be included in our rolling exotics; we’ll have a few extra tickets pressing McLaren Vale on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Tom and Jazzy; 2-Please Focus
Backups/savers:
Forecast: Tom and Jazzy pulled a little too hard for our liking when tried over a mile over this course at this level last time out, and to his credit he still finished with interest when third with a career op speed figure last time out. We love the route-to-sprint maneuver today and expect the Phil D’Amato-trained Cal-bred to settle back early and blast home late with the switch to Flavian Prat. take Anything close to his morning line of 3-1 can be considered good value. Please Focus, a pace-stalking runner-up in the same race our top pick exits, has a big look as well. The blinkers off angle always catches the eye, and with rising numbers with every start the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding is a serious threat and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:01 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Filthy Fast; 8-Casino Annie
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden $30,000 claiming sophomore fillies sprint six furlongs in a race that probably should be handled with care. Filthy Fast exits a pair of tougher maiden optional claiming affairs in which she displayed a reasonable amount of early speed before weakening late. Against this group, the Luis Mendez-trained daughter of Kobe’s Back has a much better chance to stick around. The interior fractions she cut out in her debut will likely allow her to clear the field, and in a race without any known late speed she may be able to see out the trip. Casino Annie looks like the most dangerous of the closing types. The More Than Ready filly wound up a non-threatening fourth in her debut after passing a few tired foes late in a tougher maiden $62,500 event earlier this meeting and based on the speed figure she earned the Ryan Hanson-trained sophomore won’t have to improve much at all to make her presence felt today. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:31 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Whiskey Outlaw
Backups/savers: 4-General Welfare; 7-Bajan Bashert
Forecast: This turf sprint for state-bred sophomore fillies is borderline inscrutable, with many lightly raced or first time starters to consider. In a wide open fray, how can anything be backed (or dismissed) with confidence? Whiskey Outlaw brought $130,000 at auction as a yearling, is bred to win early (Maclean’s Music) and shows a sharp 1:00 1/5 gate work (fastest of seven) at San Luis Rey Downs earlier this month to indicate she has at least some ability. The barn has a respectable record with debut runners, so in a race in which the known element doesn’t impress, why not go for a fresh face at a price? General Welfare and Bajan Bashert, two-three finishes in a main track dash at this level last month, try grass for the first time and both have a right to move up on the sod, though neither has a pedigree that guarantees it. Toss them in somewhere.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Creative Peak; 3-My Man Bags; 4-Rookie Mistake
Backups/savers: none
Forecast Here’s another messy affair, a state-bred, first level allowance sprint that probably requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Creative Peak, off the board in a turf sprint in late December, returns following a nearly three month vacation on what probably is his preferred surface (he’s won over the local dirt) and has back numbers that can beat this field. The Vladimir Cerin-trained colt retains “win rider” Ramon Vasquez and projects to inherit a comfortable second flight trip and then have his chance to kick home when called upon. My Man Bags, claimed for a paltry $8,000 in November at Del Mar, remains protected in a sign of confidence by trainer Mark Glatt and should be prominent throughout in a field without a whole lot of early zip, other than perhaps the suspect comebacker Mob Boss. ‘Bags is a three time winner (from just 10 career outings) and may have bit more improvement in him than some of the others. Glatt’s other entrant, Rookie Mistake, has been away since last June (when he was a voided claim and subsequently turned out) but sports a healthy series of recent workout and back numbers that fit. However, he’s winless in eight prior starts over the Santa Anita main track.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:31 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Flint Stroll; 1-Explain This Audit; 3-Barsabas
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The nightcap is a challenging starter allowance ($50,000, nw-3) turf miler for older runners that know each other pretty well. Flint Stroll isn’t any faster on numbers than most of these but he’s a two time winner over the local lawn and is being protected by his new connections after being haltered out of a winning race for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 last month. He should fire another good shot, which at least puts him in the fray. Flavian Prat knows him well and stays aboard. Explain This Audit shows improving form, a solid runner-up effort at this level last time out, and a good rail draw that ensures a comfortable ground-saving trip. He’ll be doing his best work late and could easily outrun his 6-1 morning line. Barsabas might inherit the role as the controlling and given that type of trip could very well hang around a long time. Frankie stays aboard the Ryan Hanson-trained gelding, who has won over this course in the past.
