“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 4-Countess Rosina; 1-Lovamour; 2-I Got a Gal
Forecast: Countess Rosina (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) was an impressive maiden winner in her U.S. debut over the flat course in March and then performed even better when overcoming a heap of early trouble to finish second in a stronger-than-par first-level allowance race down the Hillside Course earlier this month. If she can avoid trouble and secure a decent early position this time, the Irish-bred filly should be along in time, though there are others in this field that figure tough and are worth using on your rolling exotics as well. Lovamour (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1) was off slowly in her local debut but then produced an extended run to finish a sharp second over the downhill course in a strong effort that mirrors the performance of Countess Rosina. She probably has a bit more tactical speed (assuming she breaks) than ‘Rosina and therefore is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. I Got a Gal (TOC=6-1; ML=7/2) is an in-and-outer and perhaps not one to trust, but if she runs back to her smart runner-up effort over this course and distance two races back she’ll have a reasonable look at it, too. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Countess Rosina.
Notable Workouts:
Lovamour (May 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h TT). Grade: B
Mildly coaxed through the lane and did well enough, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.2. Holds her form, ran well in local debut and has every right to step forward.
View Workout Video
I Got a Gal (May 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h TT). Grade: B
Always sharp in the a.m., breezing through the lane while coming the final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35.2. Disappointed in Kentucky can bounce back with a turn back in trip.
View Workout Video
Countess Rosina (May 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B
Under a nice hold in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, splits of :24.2 and :48.3 while keeping on edge. Didn’t get the best of runs last time out but ran out nicely, seeking another first-level allowance turf dash.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Race Judicata
Forecast: Race Judicata (TOC=Evens; ML=7/2) stretches out again to a mile, and her only previous try around two turns (over this track and distance) resulted in an easy win from allowance optional claiming foes more than a year ago. In the frame in her last two outings, she stretches out as a projected pace presser or even the controlling speed, and in a field lacking in effective closers the daughter of Vronsky should have every chance to regain her winning form. We’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 4-Bran; 1-Burnin Turf
Forecast: Bran (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) took some time to acclimate after being imported from France but he has really gotten good of late for trainer J. Sadler, winning the Siren Lure S. over the flat course two races back and then running even better when a closing second in the Turf Sprint-G2 at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. He has run well down the Hillside Course in the past, looked sharp in a recent breeze (see below) and seems the solid choice. Burnin Turf (TOC=2-1; ML=9/5) has gone through the allowance ranks in rapid fashion with three straight wins, the last pair over this course and distance with powerful speed figures. In a race that lacks early speed, the D. Blacker-trained gelding may find himself controlling the proceedings without much pressure. The winner of this year’s Dayton S.-G3 should be one of these two, with a very slight preference on top to Bran.
Notable Workouts:
Burnin Turf (May 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Light coaxing through the lane while best over Pepperman (same time) for Blacker, final three furlongs in :36.3 while maintaining his edge. Grass specialist should move into stakes company next time out and be quite competitive.
View Workout Video
Bran (May 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B
A tad late changing leads but was never asked and looked fine, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36 flat in solo training track drill for J. Sadler. Maintains his sharp edge, speed figures have been rising with each recent outing.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Brickyard Ride
Forecast: Brickyard Ride (TOC=2/5; ML=4/5) simply is too fast for his five rivals in this year’s renewal of the Triple Bend S.-G3. A winner of his last four starts, each in dominating, front-running fashion, the son of Clubhouse Ride should take control easily and never look back at this seven furlong distance that is well within his range. However, he will offer no wagering value at a very short price, leaving you the option of using him as a logical rolling exotic single or simply passing the race.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 8-Flintmore; 4-Migration; 10-Law Abiding
Forecast: Flintmore and Migration finished two-three in a similar maiden turf race earlier this month over nine furlongs and neither should have an issue shortening to today’s one mile trip. Both have rising speed figures and enough tactical speed to secure a comfortable stalking or second flight trip. We’ll also toss in Law Abiding, away since finishing a respectable fourth in the Zuma Beach S. last fall in just his second career start and with a smart series of recent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have him fit enough.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B+
Single (in order of preference): 12-Liar Liar
Forecast: Liar Liar ran a winning race in his debut but blew his best chance with a slow start in a seven furlong affair that proved too taxing in the final stages. He shortens to six furlongs, is drawn comfortably outside, and adds Lasix and blinkers for a trainer whose second time starters usually improve. At age five, the son of Clubhouse Ride is a bit late to the party but if he makes no mistakes the Harris Farms homebred should earn his diploma as a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Bruin Magic (May 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: C+
Solo gate drill for O’Neill, never really asked with splits of :24.3, :36.2, :48.2 and 1:01.3, a bit late changing leads. Was far back in debut up north, probably can improve a bit but needs bottom-rung maiden claimers on the local circuit.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 5-Cairo Memories; 1-Island of Love
Forecast: There are two main players in this year’s edition of the Honeymoon S.-G3 and both are worth including in rolling exotic play. Cairo Memories (TOC=4/5; ML=6/5) was spectacular winning the Providencia S.-G3 over this course and distance in early April, establishing the pace without being asked and then kicking clear when given her cue. She is just as capable of rallying from off the pace to win, so regular pilot M. Smith can assess the early pace flow and choose a strategy. Island of Love (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) was equally impressive capturing the Senorita S.-G3 over a mile last month, doing so like a filly who will not be bothered at all by today’s step up in trip. In a race without much pace, it’s not inconceivable that from her rail post she inherits the role as the controlling speed.
Notable Workouts:
Cairo Memories (May 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h TT). Grade: B
Breezing throughout in easy five furlong training track drill for R. Hess, Jr., splits of :25 flat, :37 flat and 1:02 flat on our watches, plenty left late. Won the Providencia S. on the lead but can rally from off the pace just as well. Holds her edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Bear Chum; 5-Storminside
Forecast: Bear Chum (TOC=Evens; ML=5/2) is buried on the rail and will need some luck in this six furlong bottom-rung dash, but if he can navigate a clear journey he should be along in time. An 11-time winner from 40 career starts, the nine-year-old gelding is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita main track but has hit the board in his last two local outings while earning speed figures that are better than par for this level. Storminside (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) won for this price on March 20, was claimed by a low profile barn, and returns for $10,000 with a healthy series of four recent workouts that should have him ready to resume where he left off. First or second in 22 of 48 career outings, the son of Hansen should find himself on or near the lead throughout. In a field that features a number of Los Alamitos-based runners, let’s try to survive and advance using just these two in rolling exotics play.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-Hamwood Flier+; 2-Heathers Grey; 8-Miss Mattie B.
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab gag requiring some coverage in the exotics. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Hamwood Flier (TOC=8-1; ML=4-1) is an intriguing Euro-invader making her first U.S. start following a smart series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs. Away for almost a year, the daughter of Kodiac is a first-time Lasix user with Timeform Ratings in big fields in Ireland that make her a solid fit at this level on this circuit. Heathers Grey (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1) may have been a tad short when setting the fractions before weakening late in a tougher affair over this course and distance last month. The S. McCarthy-trained mare is a two-time winner over the local lawn and can improve this time if held up early and given some cover. Miss Mattie B (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1) has been badly overmatched in graded stakes company in her last three starts. She returns home in a realistic spot, is reunited with “win rider” M. Smith, and has prior form that makes her dangerous against this group. Look for her to be doing her best work from off the pace.
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