“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Grazed My Heart
Backups/savers: 2-Loyal to a Fault
Forecast: Grazed My Heart, second in her last pair with steadily rising speed figures, looks solid in this modest state-bred juvenile fillies maiden turf miler and probably will leave a bit lower than her morning line of 8/5. The Jeff Mullins-trained daughter of Grazen closed with purpose but fell a neck short when second in a similar affair at Del Mar last time out and won’t need much more today to earn her diploma. Loyal to a Fault, a close fourth in the same race Grazed My Heart exits, may find herself as the controlling speed and given that type of trip could get brave. Toss her in on a backup ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Bag’s Gold ; 7-Big Gun
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Bag’s Gold was overmatched in straight maiden company on grass last time out but is back where he belongs today and shortens to what might prove to be his preferred distance. The son of Vronsky has speed figures that are better than par for this level, so we’ll put him on top over Big Gun, drawn comfortably outside in his second start off a layoff for trainer Tim Yakteen (solid stats with this angle) and picking up Juan Hernandez.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Overdue; 1-Moody Jim
Backups/savers: 6-First Premio
Forecast: Here’s a spread race in which none of the seven starters would surprise. Overdue couldn’t handle the Del Mar dirt track in an off-the-grass affair last month but likes the local lawn and seems certain to bounce back. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding can beat this field with a repeat of his sharp score over this course and distance two races back. In a race without pace, he should be forwardly placed throughout, perhaps even on the lead if Moody Jim isn’t sent from the rail. The latter is a first-off-the-claim for trainer Mike Puype (powerful stats in a small sample size) and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. Like Overdue, he was virtually eased in his last out in an off-the-turfer but is eligible to bounce back in a big way under these more favorable conditions. These two will be on the main ticket, but we’ll also toss in First Premio as a backup. The veteran gelding makes his third start off a layoff, so another forward move is likely. He’s most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, and with a decent pace up front to compliment his style he should be heard from late.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-American Lily
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: American Lily crushed maiden $50,000 claimers at first asking last month at Los Alamitos, doing so by six widening lengths while earning a much better than par speed figure. She shows a bullet drill at San Luis Rey Downs since that race, so there’s no reason to believe she can’t come back and win again in this starter optional claiming dash. However, in a five runner field and at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, there’s not much wagering value to be found.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Dash Away; 7-Sunset Glory
Backups/savers: 9-Loana
Forecast: Dash Away didn’t get the best of runs in her debut but closed with courage to just miss by a half-length in a legitimate race over this course and distance earlier this month. A repeat of that race today probably will be good enough. Sunset Glory finished fourth of 10 in her only outing in Ireland last summer and has every right to improve in her U.S. debut for trainer Michael McCarthy and top grass rider Umberto Rispoli. Her Timeform rating of 60 isn’t great but it does make her a fit with these. Loana gets the worst of the draw but has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for trainer Craig Dollase after finishing second in a seven furlong main track dash while six lengths clear of the rest. She’s worth including on a backup ticket.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Hopkins
Backups/savers: 1-Purified; 5-Princip
Forecast: Hopkins burned a whole bunch of money when finishing second at 50 cents on the dollar last month at Del Mar in his first start since last December. We doubt he was a short horse – his strong work tab for trainer Bob Baffert should have had him more than fit – but the son of Quality Road today catches a field without much early zip, so we suspect he’ll take this field gate to wire at a price lower than his morning line of 5/2. The “other” Baffert in the field is Purified, runner-up in a maiden claimer in his debut last month at Los Alamitos. Second timers hit at a remarkable 30% for this stable, so a forward move is likely, and on pure numbers he’s not that far removed from his more fancied stable mate. Princip is a first-time starter with a series of good works at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Mark Glatt. He’s an unknown, so we’ll toss him in as a backup.
Notable Workouts:
Hopkins (Oct. 12, 5f, 1:0h). Grade: B
Solo breeze for B. Baffert, slow early but strong through the lane without being asked much, splits of :25.2, :37 flat and 1:01 flat to the wire before galloping out six furlongs in 1:13.4. Looks good, was beaten at odds on vs. maidens last time out but should be able to make amends.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Classical Cat
Backups/savers: 6-Castleknock; 3-Kid Azteca
Forecast: Classical Cat was overmatched in the Del Mar Futurity but shouldn’t be in this first-level allowance turf miler for juveniles. Bred to improve a bunch on grass (Mendelssohn), the Phil D’Amato-trained colt projects to fold over from his outside draw into a good stalking position and then have every chance to kick on when called upon. If he’s going to develop into a good sort, this is the type of race he should be able to win. Castleknock finished second in the Zuma Beach Stakes over this course and distance two weeks ago, returns on short rest, and could be tough to catch if allowed to bowl along on the lead. However, his Peter Miller-trained stable mate, Kid Azteca, is exiting a sprint and will have a strong pace presence if allowed to display his natural speed. It’s hard to imagine the two Miller entrants getting into a speed duel, so we wonder if one or the other will be taken back, and if that happens the pace scenario becomes uncertain.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Blame It On Rose
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Blame It On Rose drops for the money run to her lowest level ever and should have no excuses from her comfortable outside post position in this $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. A good runner up in a $16,000 affair at Los Alamitos last time out in a race that produced a career top speed figure, she projects to settle into an ideal stalking position in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of zip in it and then be able to exert her superiority when it counts. The Bob Hess, Jr.-trained sophomore offers value in the win pool at or near her morning line of 7/2.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Kolomio
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Expensive ($62,500) maiden claiming juveniles meet over a mile on grass in the Sunday finale. The drop in class from straight maiden company should enable first time gelding Kolomio to earn his diploma in his first try around two turns. With Kitten’s Joy on the bottom, the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding seems likely to step forward over a distance of ground after three sprint tries that produced rising speed figures, most recently in a troubled grass sprint at Del Mar that resulted in a better-than-looked third place finish. Joe Bravo stays aboard and blinkers are added, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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