“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Tecumseh Caroline
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Several of these exit a maiden state-bred turf sprint won by Smiling Molly in late August at Del Mar – a weak race based on our numbers – so let’s take a stand and single Tecumseh Caroline, who finished a highly respectable third behind the improving Flame McGoon in a dirt sprint down south in her first outing following a 10 month layoff and just her second start overall. The Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Grazen seems certain to improve with experience, and this switch to turf shouldn’t be an issue for her. With a steady, healthy series of workouts in the interim, she looks ready to graduate and will offer good value at or near her morning line of 5-1.
Notable Workouts:
Tecumseh Caroline (Sept. 29, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.2h TT). Grade: B-
Breezing through the lane outside Rose Caroline (same time), final three furlongs in :37.1. Looks solid and seems sure to improve with experience.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Careless Kitten; 1-Rogue Son
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: When 17-race maiden Careless Kitten is listed as the morning line favorite in a bottom-rung $20,000 claimer – and on paper looks it – you know we’re dealing with a woefully weak race. It’s hard to believe but he actually finished first in a race almost a year ago but was disqualified, so he’s still in there trying. In the money in his last four and with speed figures good enough to win, he’s certain to get plenty of play but will hardly offer any wagering value even if he does manage to finish first. Rogue Son, a not-so-terrible third in his only prior outing last spring, is largely unexposed, and if he can run at all this would be a good place to show it. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that probably is best left alone.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Fore Flag; 5-Donner Lake
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s another race that offers little to no value. Fore Flag looks like the right horse on paper in this California-bred maiden special weight turf miler for older horses, but he’s already had 12 chances and isn’t one to trust. The good news is that he’s finished in the money seven times and recently earned a career top speed figure when second in a similar affair at Del Mar, so maybe he’s finally found a winning spot, though at 2-1 on the morning line there’s really not much we can do with him. Fore Flag’s Michael McCarthy-trained stablemate Donner Lake has run decently over this course in the past and should have every chance from a pace stalking position. He’s never been one to count on under pressure but against this group he may get brave. Tread lightly.
Notable Workouts:
Fore Flag (Oct. 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B-
Slightly best outside Donner Lake (same time), both being ridden in the closing stages, final three furlongs in :37.1. Both seem about the same.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Smiling At Val; 1-Sonic Breeze; 2-Tom Bombadil
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Smiling At Val is comfortably drawn outside in this modest restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint and should have no excuses after finishing a solid second (more than two lengths clear of the rest) in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month. He’s not fast on numbers but at least on paper looks healthy. Sonic Breeze just missed at 60 cents on the dollar with no excuse at this level last month and was claimed by a low percentage outfit, and in his race before that he was voided claim when also winding up second as the favorite. He has races that can win but isn’t one to bank on. Tom Bombadil has several back speed figures that would easily handle this assignment. but he appears off form. Hard to say what version we’ll see today. Best advice is to spread the race or pass it altogether.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Comanche Country
Backups/savers: 8-Excelia
Forecast: Comanche Country looks very much like another in a long list of imported Irish fillies with modest form that have developed into stakes quality performers for trainer Phil D’Amato. After a couple of average runs overseas, she arrived at Del Mar and broke her maiden cleverly in her U.S. debut before stepping forward and winning the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes with a strong late kick that earned a solid speed figure. She is likely to continue to improve as she develops and matures, so the daughter of Highland Reel – listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this year’s renewal of the Surfer Girl Stakes – may be a short price worth taking. The stable’s other Irish-bred entrant, Excelia, was a reasonable third behind Comanche Country when making her U.S. bow after pressing a strong pace throughout and stayed on well under the circumstances. She has every right to improve and is worth including somewhere on your ticket as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Arabian Lion
Backups/savers: 5-Elwood Blues
Forecast: The two Bob Baffert-trained first timers will get the bulk of the play in this hot maiden sprint for juveniles. Arabian Lion has trained like the real deal (see below) and has been geared up for a major effort for a barn that hits at an amazing 29% with debut runners. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and it would not be surprising if he went lower. His workmate, Elwood Blues, was slightly second best when they squared off in a five furlong flat drill last Sunday. They both are good prospects; ‘Lion might be a lot better than just good.
Notable Workouts:
Arabian Lion (Oct. 2, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.4h). Grade: A-
Looked terrific inside Elwood Blues (same time), neither asked much, with ‘Lion a tad the best approaching the wire and then continuing out to the seven furlong pole, splits of :23.3, :35 flat and :58.4 to the wire before being coaxed out a full six furlongs in a sparkling 1:11.3 on our watches. ‘Blues, like his workmate a son of Justify, worked very well, too, and was only slightly second best. ‘Lion brought $600,000 at the OBS April sale and could be the goods. His pedigree is a little light in the first two generations, but his third dam is the immortal Personal Ensign.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Hamwood Flier
Backups/savers: 3-Sugar Fix; 5-Counterparty Risk
Forecast:Hamwood Flier is extremely fast but doesn’t want to be rated and most likely will blaze away from the gate, set hot fractions, and then try to hang on in this year’s renewal of the Swingtime Stakes over a mile on grass for fillies and mares. Maybe with the switch to Mike Smith the Irish-bred filly will relax early and never look back. It’s basically up to her. Sugar Fix and Counterparty Risk will be waiting in the wings should ‘Flier run out of air in the closing stages. ‘Fix is a real pro (11 wins, eight seconds, from 29 starts) and makes her first start since being claimed for $62,500 for Bob Hess, Jr, at Kentucky Downs last month. She’s competitive on numbers and is most effective from a second flight position. ‘Risk earned a career top number when winning a second level allowance turf miler at Del Mar and a similar effort today puts her in the hunt.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Hero Status
Backups/savers: 6-Street Ruckus; 2-Perfect Flight
Forecast: Hero Status always has been highly regarded and may finally be approaching his potential after earning his diploma last month at Del Mar by more than six lengths with a powerful speed figure. Interestingly, he returns on the one level raise with blinkers on, and if this turns out to be a positive equipment change the son of Flatter could step forward even more. He’s 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower. Street Ruckus is a one-paced grinding type but has numbers that make him dangerous, and he was a sharp winner over the local main track last spring. He prefers to stalk and pounce and should inherit a good second flight trip. Perfect Flight was scratched yesterday for this spot and the lightly raced sophomore, a close fourth in the same strong race Street Ruckus exits, has finished first or second in three of six starts with further improvement likely.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Yeng Again
Backups/savers: 10-Time to Party; 3-Silent Fury
Forecast: Yeng Again was away almost two years when he resurfaced in an abbreviated turf sprint at Del Mar last month and the 5-year-old gelding came back as well as he left – perhaps better – when finishing second by a neck in a legitimate race for first level allowance sprinters. Can he repeat that effort today? He shows two easy breezes at San Luis Rey Downs to tick him over so in this Hillside turf sprint the son of Carpe Diem will be tough to deny if he can. Time to Party lands the cozy outside post and probably can improve after finishing a close sixth in the same race Yeng Again exits. The Kantharos gelding likely will inherit a soft stalking position and have every chance from there. Silent Fury has been on the shelf since March of 2020 but it’s encouraging that he returns protected in a sign of confidence. He actually defeated Yeng Again when breaking his maiden in a dirt sprint way back then, and his recent workouts indicate he may have still have his old speed.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference: 5-Packs a Whalop; 4-Dandy Man Shines
Backups/savers: 8-Giver Not a Taker
Forecast: Packs a Wahlop is a perfect two-for-two since being transferred to grass, both wins quite impressive, and accomplished with authority. In a similar affair last month – the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S.-G3 – the son of Creative Cause pressed the pace to the head of the lane before kicking clear like a good colt. The Jeff Mullins-trained 2-year-old will be hard to beat with a similar performance today. Mullins other entrant, Dandy Man Shines, finished a respectable fourth (beaten five lengths) without being knocked about in that same race and seems certain to be more serious today. With a clean trip and a little help up front the Irish-bred colt will be heard from late. Giver Not a Taker is California-bred stakes winner moving into open company, stretching out, and trying grass. If he can route as well as he sprints and duplicate his dirt form on the lawn, the Peter Miller-trained son of Danzing Candy may have a say in the matter. Toss him in somewhere on your ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Packs a Wahlop (Sept. 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: A-
Broke off several lengths behind Oculus (5f,, 1:01.3h TT) and cruised on by when ready while just breezing along, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.1 on our watches, never taking a deep breath. Was impressive in a pair of wins at Del Mar and looks even better now.
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