“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
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SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
Sixth Race – Post: 3:55 ET
Top Pick: 8-Stellar Lady (3-1)
Produced a strong late kick in her debut on dirt last month, rallying from almost 10 lengths back to finish eagerly behind a sharp debut winner (Leave No Trace) while winding up more than 10 lengths clear of the rest. With Brahms on the bottom side of her pedigree, the daughter of Shackleford should be able to duplicate if not improve upon her main track form with the switch to grass, so with a race under her belt for trainer Kenny McPeek (very strong stats with the second-time starter angle) she should be along in time. For protection, you may want to include 2-Love Tank somewhere on your ticket. She has good early speed and could get brave if she can shake loose early.
Eighth Race: Post: 5:05 ET
Top Pick: 9-Tiz the Bomb (7/2)
Isn’t necessarily one to trust – he tossed in a clinker when well-backed in the Belmont Derby-G1 last month – but against this group the son of Hit It a Bomb should be able to snap back to winning form. A multiple stakes winner with earnings in excess of $1 million, the Kenny McPeek-trained sophomore looked sharp in a recent turf work to indicate he’s doing well, and against this lesser field he should be able to get over from his outside draw, secure some cover, and then kick home when given his cue. At 7/2 on the morning line, he’s worth an aggressive play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. The lightly raced and developing Double Clutch is the one to fear most and should, too, be included on your ticket. The son of Optimizer exits a hot race and has the kind of tactical speed that should produce a comfortable, second flight, stalking trip.
SARATOA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: 5-Customerexperience; 1-Well Spent
2nd race: 7-Command Point; 3-Mama Rina; 5=Quaria Thunder
3rd race: 6-Capt. Remington; 3-Barone Marchis; 2-Devil or Angel; 5-Jay’stalker
4th race: 5-Magnetron; 1-Breaking Stones
5th race: 1-Shad Nation; 5-Rheaume
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 8-Stellar Lady; 2-Love Tank
7th race: 5-Ragtime Blues; 4-Direct Order
8th race: 9-Tiz the Bomb; 7-Double Clutch
9th race: 5-Golden Pal
10th race: 6-Wicked Lady; 7-Skyward Princess; 3-Regal Rebel
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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
FIFTH RACE:
6-Sequist (July 29, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b TT TC DU). Grade: C+
Solo turf workout around dogs, was ridden and asked through the lane, okay response, nothing more. Unplaced in her last four starts, didn’t do anything here to expect significant improvement.
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Santa Giulia (July 29, Saratoga, 4f, :49.2b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
No blinkers (scheduled to add them) while inside Private Credit (same time) around dogs on turf for C. Brown, ridden through the lane to be slightly second best (workmate asked a bit less), not terribly inspiring for C. Brown. French-bred filly is trying to find her level on this circuit.
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SIXTH RACE:
Run for Cover (July 22, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02.4b). Grade: C
Received same final time as Splurge (same time) but actually finished several lengths behind while fading in the final furlong despite aggressive urging. Pass for now.
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Bella Cosa (July 30, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3bg). Grade: C+
Solo gate drill for C. Martin, was ridden pretty good every step of the way while doing her best with average splits. Nothing special at this stage.
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EIGHTH RACE:
Wit (July 30, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b TT TC). Grade: B
Even inside Scottish Star (same time) over training track turf course (no dogs) while under some coaxing with moderate splits. Can’t guarantee he’ll improve on the lawn (or around two turns) based on this drill, but we suppose it’s worth a try.
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Double Clutch (July 17, Saratoga, 4f, :49.2b TT TC DU). Grade: B+
Quite a nice work around dogs in solo grass drill for G. Arnold, never really asked while finishing eagerly, final quarter mile in a sharp :24 flat after going off slowly. Lightly raced (just three starts) with further improvement in him (numbers have risen with each start).
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Celestial City (July 24, Saratoga, 4f, :49.2b TT). Grade: B+
In company outside Limited Liability (4f, :49.3b) in training track dirt drill for Shug and did well while under a very tight hold throughout and stride-for-stride with workmate, :25 flat on our watches from the quarter pole home. Uncle Mo colt has further improvement in him, wouldn’t mind seeing him tried on dirt sometime soon.
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Tiz the Bomb (July 29, Saratoga, 4f, :49b TT TC). Grade: B
Breezed solo inside the dogs on training track turf course and looked fine, strictly on his own while coming home strongly, final quarter mile in :24 flat. Seems like he either wins or you can’t find him; no reason he won’t fire a good shot next time out.
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NINTH RACE:
Spycraft (July 29, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b TT TC). Grade: B
Decent solo breeze inside the dogs in solo grass move for J. Sharp, final quarter mile while mostly on his own in :24.1. Ex-claimer is doing well but is getting ambitious in the Troy S.-G3.
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Golden Pal (July 29, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01.4b, TT TC). Grade: B+
Under a nice hold while breezing alone inside the dogs, final quarter mile in :24.1, doing just what was asked of him. Got left at Royal Ascot, so it’s best to toss that race out. Will toy with the Troy field if he feels like it.
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TENTH RACE:
Regal Rebel (July 31, Saratoga, 4f, :49b). Grade: B-
Useful solo half mile breeze for R. Atras, final three furlongs in :37.1 after going off quickly and then finishing under mild urging through the lane. Form is poor; needs a substantial class drop.
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