“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
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SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
First Race – Post: 1:05 ET
Top Pick: 5-Coach Petro (9/2)
In a wide-open grass grab bag for juveniles, let’s try a bit of gamble. This debuting son of Cairo Prince hails from an outfit does shows solid stats with debut runners, and a recent turf breeze around dogs (see below) provided indication that this Brad Cox-trained colt has his share of natural ability. Purchased for $200,000 as a yearling, he’s the first foal from a stakes-quality grass mare and has the benefit of a strong foundation of drills that dates back to early May. At 9/2 on the morning line, there should be value in the win pool and I the various exotics. Chad Brown has a first timer that is sure to receive plenty of play, as well. 7-Activist Investing, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, caught the eye in a recent grass breeze, though whatever damage he does will most likely will come from off the pace. The Irish invader 9-Reckoning Force had a decent run when third of 14 last month in his debut and arrives fresh off the plane for trainer Joseph O’Brien, whose first local starter was disappointing, though it certainly is too early to draw any conclusions. We’ll throw him in somewhere despite his extreme outside draw.
Ninth Race: Post: 5:38 ET
Top Pick: 1-Uncle Moonlight (9/2)
Uncle Moonlight wired a first-level allowance field at Belmont Park last month with a career top speed figure and almost certainly will employ similar tactics on the one-level raise. Though he’s been tried over a distance of ground before, this will be his first chance around two turns, and from his good rail post in a race that projects to have moderate early fractions the son of Uncle Mo should inherit the role as the controlling speed. Two nice breezes since raced are good to see, too. For exacta players, consider the even money favorite, 7-Stage Raider, very fast on speed figures and lightly raced with further improvement in him, and 5-Air Attack, a voided claim when nosed out in a hot $40,000 affair last time out but raised to $62,500 by connections who run their horses where they belong.
SARATOA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: 5-Coach Petro; 7-Activist Investing, 9-Reckoning Force
2nd race: 7-Brazillionaire; 6-Pirate Life
3rd race: 7-Union Lake; 4-Breakfastatbonnies; 6-Repealing.
4th race: 2-Beyond Perfection; 4-Jane Mast; 6-Veronica Green
5th race: 3-Nest 5-Secret Oath
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 3-Faithful and True; 1-Summonyourcourage; 5-Powerful
7th race: 9-Royal Dancer; 6-Quick Power Nap
8th race: 7-Highly Respected; 6-Under Oath
9th race: 1-Uncle Moonlight; 7-Stage Raider; 5-Air Attack
10th race: 4-Bout Time; 1-Caravel
11th race: 6-Topic Charger; 8-Catch that Party; 2-Montatham
SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
FIRST RACE:
Really Good (July 9, Saratoga, 5f, 1:03.2b). Grade: C
In blinkers, well clear of With Know Name (5f, 1:04b) but finished with little energy while slowing up noticeably in the final stages (workmate staggered home), final quarter mile in :27.1. Maybe (hopefully) needs grass.
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Couth (July 15, Saratoga, Saratoga, 4f, :51b TT TC DU). Grade: C+
Blinkers, shadow roll, even but slightly second best inside Evan Sing (same time) around dogs on grass, mild coaxing only but not visually impressive. Down the road type, it would appear.
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Coach Petro (July 17, Saratoga, 4f, :49.2b TT TC DU). Grade: B
In blinkers, finished in good rhythm without need of urging while clearly best over unnamed workmate (worked under dam’s name Curlylocks, same time), okay move for B. Cox. C Getting fit, seemed to handle the lawn well enough.
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Activist Investing (July 17, 4f, :49.1b TT TC DU). Grade: B
Ridden a bit through the lane outside C’est Magnifique (same time) for C. Brown, stalking that one a length back to the top of the lane and then finishing well to be going the better of the two into the clubhouse turn. Not a speed type, for sure, but appears to have a decent late kick.
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THIRD RACE:
Jane Grey (June 10, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b TT). Grade: B
Broke off behind Nostalgic (4f, :50.3b) and finished down the lane with that one under a nice hold to be head-and-head at the wire, slow early but strong through the lane, :24.2 from the quarter pole to the wire. In good shape, lightly raced and seems certain to improve with experience and distance.
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Union Lake (July 16, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02.1b). Grade: B
Under stout restraint throughout while clearly best over Life Changer (5f, 1:02b, broke off a length behind, finished a long neck back at wire under urging), nice drill for Speightster filly in J. Terranova barn. Broke her maiden gamely last month at Belmont Park and likely has another forward move in her.
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FOURTH RACE:
Beyond Perfection (July 17, Saratoga, 4f, :50.3b TC TT DU). Grade: B
Easy breeze without being asked while stride-for-stride through the lane outside Ensemble (same time, also under a. nice hold), both looking nice for B. Walsh. Was far back in only outing sprinting on dirt but seems quite likely to improve on grass.
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Veronica Greene (July 8, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1b TT). Grade: B-
Under a nice hold through the lane while even with Distinctlypossible (same time) for C. Brown after breaking off slightly behind, decent breeze for both over dirt training track. Bred for turf and we suspect she’ll display improvement when given the chance.
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Sixth Street (July 17, Saratoga, 4f, :51.1b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
Stalked Chiromante (same time) while far wide around dogs on turf and then finished head-and-head at the wire without being asked much (workmate also going in hand) while gearing up for U.S. debut. Brings modest form from England, okay type but nothing more.
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FIFTH RACE:
Society (July 17, Saratoga, 4f, :49.4b TT). Grade: B
Slightly second best (never asked) while outside Clairiere (same time) for S. Asmussen looking nice and fit, final quarter mile in :24.2. The probable pacesetter in the CCA Oaks and will take them as far as she can
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Nest (July 16, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01.2b). Grade: B+
Broke off a bit behind Corniche (same time) and was breezing outside throughout (workmate asked a bit through the lane) while looking none the worse for wear after her hard, taxing runner-up effort in the Belmont Stakes. No reason she can’t pick up where she left off based on this drill.
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Nostalgic (July 16, Saratoga, 4f, :50.3b TT). Grade: B-
Broke off a length in front of Jane Grey (4f, :50.1b) and finished head-and-head inside that one while being niggled at late (workmate was best), final quarter mile in a solid :24.2. Freshened since finishing unplaced in the Kentucky Oaks-G1, doesn’t appear totally cranked up just yet.
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Secret Oath (July 15, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00b TT). Grade: A-
Breezing in solo main track drill for Lukas, finishing with plenty left, final quarter mile in :24.2. Absolutely fit and ready.
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SIXTH RACE:
Phelpsy (July 9, Saratoga, 4f, :49.2bg TT). Grade: B-
Under a stout hold early but was perhaps slightly second best late in gate drill inside Plurality (same time), splits of :23.4, :35.4 and :48.4 on our watches while gearing up for his debut. Into Mischief colt was a $1 million yearling purchase and appears to have some pretty good quickness for C. Brown. Was hoping to see a bit better finish, though.
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Summonyourcourage (July 16, Saratoga, 4f, :50.4b). Grade: B-
Fairly easy throughout outside Desert Wolf (same time) for T. Pletcher, final three furlongs while traveling out to the first turn in :37.2. Probably has further improvement in him after a pair of solid tries at Churchill Downs last spring.
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SEVENTH RACE:
Quick Power Nap (July 8, Saratoga, 4f, :49b TT). Grade: B+
Blazed-face filly was under severe restraint throughout while inside and best over Weyhill Farm Rd. (same time) for C. Clement, a sharp :23.4 from the quarter pole to the wire. Definitely on edge and seems certain to improve disappointing run in her comeback last month at Belmont Park.
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Admire My Crown (July 16, Saratoga, 4f, :50b). Grade: C+
Even throughout inside Quick to Accuse (same time) for De Paz, very light coaxing only but not really showing a whole lot of spark. Probably should see one first.
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EIGHTH RACE:
Peaceful Waters (July 16, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b). Grade: B-
A tad rough changing leads but was never asked in easy solo main track breeze for A. Stall, Jr., steady splits. Always shows plenty of zip but needs some work in the stamina department.
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Favorite Outlaw (July 17, 5f, 1:00.3b TT). Grade: B
Outside Jackie’s Warrior (same time) and was always second best (no disgrace) while being ridden a bit through the lane while ‘Warrior was just coasting, final quarter in :23.4. Has all of his conditions and appears to have all of his speed.
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Highly Respected (July 15, Saratoga, 4f, :47.2b). Grade: B+
Inside Money Supply (same time) for C. Brown and was slightly best through the lane (both breezing), :24 flat from the quarter pole to the wire. Lightly raced son of Dialed In has first-level allowance conditions and should be tough to beat at that level.
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NINTH RACE:
Rising Empire (July 15, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.4b). Grade: B+
Just coasting in solo main track breeze for B. Walsh with blinkers on, plenty left in the tank. Have to think he’ll display improvement next time out with the hood on. Was below his best form at Churchill Downs in his last pair of outings.
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TENTH RACE:
Caravel (July 17, 4f, :49.3b TT TC). Grade: B+
No dogs on turf, finished under a tight hold in sharp drill for classy turf sprinter, plenty left late. Ready for a top effort, it would appear.
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Bout Time (July 17, Saratoga, 4f, :49b TT). Grade: B-
A neck best at the wire outside Rosia Bay (same time) while maintaining her edge for De Vaux, no real pressure through the lane. Okay move but moves like she is much more comfortable on grass.
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