“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
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SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
Second Race – Post: 1:39 ET
Top Pick: 2-Essaouira (6-1)
Let’s go for a bit of a gamble in this wide open maiden juvenile filly turf sprint. This daughter of Super Saver has done most of her preparation at Fair Hill, but she breezed well in a local gate work on the training track last week, looking pretty decent while proving much best without being asked (see below). She’s a good moving, athletic homebred filly, and while the barn doesn’t have great stats with first-time starters, her projected price dictates a play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. We assume that the Wesley Ward-trained 12-Playlist will receive plenty of play, so we’ll include her in our tickets as well. She was a $400,000 yearling purchase by Uncle Mo, and while we haven’t seen her on video she sports a healthy work pattern since arriving from Keeneland and logically is the one to fear most
Eighth Race: Post: 5:05 ET
Top Pick: 5-Tizzy in the Sky (2-1)
Sophomore filly makes her second career start (her first for new trainer Jose Camejo) after displaying promise in July at Belmont Park when a runner-up in a legitimate maiden special weight sprint while more than six lengths clear of a next out winner in an outing that produced a good speed figure. A bullet recent training track workout indicates the daughter of Sky Kingdom is likely to produce a forward move, one that may very well be good enough to earn her a diploma. She removes blinkers, retains Joel Rosario, and projects as the controlling speed. It all adds up to a win play and rolling exotic single.
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SARATOGA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: 4-Supersonice; 6-Monterey Peninsula
2nd race: 10-Playlist; 2-Essaouira; 6-Lady Caraggio
3rd race: 6-St. Joe Louis; 4-Royal Spirit; 7-Merci
4th race: 6-Royal Mover; 7-Ee Yah; 3-Warman Road
5th race: 7-Kumar; 5-Dust Devil; 3-Amount; 1-Direct Order
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 8-Rocky Sky
7th race: 7-The Grey Wizard; 3-Danzingwiththestars; 1-James Jones; 9-Modern Science
8th race: 5-Tizzy in the Sky
9th race: 6-Customer List; 10-A Mo Reay; 5-Canisy; 3-Skims
10th race: 6-Digital Future; 1-Spettro; 7-Uncle George
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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
FIRST RACE:
Supersonic (July 30, Saratoga, 5f, :59.2hg). Grade: B
Mild coaxing throughout while even and slightly beset inside D’oro Street (same time) for Diodoro, decent work out for 3-year-old unraced gelding by Practical Joke. Based on this drill he’s definitely good enough to win a bottom-rung maiden claimer, but must have some issues to be debuting for $20,000. Question mark.
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SECOND RACE:
Essaouira (August 18, Saratoga, 4f, :49.3bg TT). Grade: B
Nice training track gate work, better than the final time would indicate, splits of 24.3 :37.1 and :49.3 for G. Motion, never asked and always breezing while clearly best over Hamo (same time but always more than a length behind). Like the way this Super Saver filly travels. Athletic filly should run well in debut if no monsters show up.
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Lexi’s Spirit (August 11, Saratoga, 4f, :47.3bg). Grade: C+
Last of three while being ridden throughout and falling back after three furlongs while chasing Nursekringledances and Soledad (both 5f, 1:00.2bg) for M. Hennig. Not encouraging, let’s see one first.
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Cant Keep Me Down (August 18, Saratoga, 4f, :48bg). Grade: B
In company outside Maya’s Dream (same time) in team gate drill T. Pletcher, stride-for-stride most of the way under mild coaxing (workmate went a tad easier), solid work while preparing for her debut. Okay filly by The Factor seems fairly fit, probably a cut below the better ones in this stable.
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Lady Caraggio (August 7, Saratoga, 4f, :47.2bg). Grade: B
In company outside Good News Rocket (same time) for W. Mott in team gate drill, slightly second early but then responding to some coaxing to finish a tad the best, steady drill. Have to think she’ll be much more comfortable on grass, based on her pedigree. Useful Irish-bred juvenile filly.
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Rocket City (August 6, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01.4b TT). Grade: B-
In company outside Justifying (same time) for S. Asmussen on training track and was stride-for-stride throughout without being asked much, easy early, okay through the lane, final quarter mile in :25 flat. Nothing flashy but moves well enough, getting fit.
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Dontlookkbackatall (August 19, Saratoga, 4f, :51.2b TT TC DU). Grade: B
Breezed outside Mademoisellejackie 4f, :51b TT TC DU) for C. Clement, breaking off a couple of lengths back and finishing about a half-length behind at the wire, just an okay work for daughter of Peace and Justice. Clockers reversed the final times so she should have received the faster clocking but she doesn’t really strike us as a sprint type, or at least isn’t being trained to be one at this stage,
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FOURTH RACE:
Secret Thunder (August 5, Saratoga, 4f, :48.2bg). Grade: C+
Ridden hard from the gate and quickly left workmate Queenpin (4f, :49.3bg) far behind, remaining under pressure most of the way to be pretty much doing her best. High priced maiden claimer at this stage, workmate didn’t look like much.
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FIFTH RACE:
Kumar (August 21, Saratoga, 4f, :50b). Grade: B
Ears up, under wraps, just coasting, looking fine and on edge for G. Rodriguez. Last race was below best form over wet track, probably can improve on a fast oval.
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EIGHTH RACE:
Tizzy in the Sky (August 19, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b TT). Grade: B+
No blinkers, easy leaving the pole, was asked to pick it up a bit entering the stretch and did quite well while coming home in :23.3, full stride in the final stages and with something left. Ran a winning race when second in her debut in July and Belmont Park and has changed trainers since, from R. Handal to J. Camejo. Can step forward.
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NINTH RACE:
Customer List (August 5, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01.2b TT TC). Grade: B
Stride-for-stride inside Kinchen (same time) for C. Brown, neither one asked, with ‘List galloping out the better of the two looking sharp and willingly. Has had trouble leaving the gate in three career starts and should improve considerably when she’s able to correct that part of her game. Seeking another non-winners of two event.
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A Mo Reay (August 19, Saratoga, 4f, :48.4b TT TC). Grade: B
Drew clear with authority outside Bisset (4f, :49.2b TT TC) in the final furlong under mild coaxing only while coming home in :23.4. for T. Pletcher. Good mover on grass and seems certain to improve considerably with a switch in surface.
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