WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
*
SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
Sixth Race – Post: 3:55 ET
Top Pick: 3-Collaboration (7/2)
Let’s take a flier with this first-timer from the Linda Rice barn in this two-turn maiden turf event for New York-bred juvenile fillies. She is bred to love turf (English Channel x Giant’s Causeway) and her main track works aren’t bad at all, specifically her most recent drill July 24 (see below) in which she easily handled a workmate while galloping out well like a distance-type. In an open fray at 7/2 on the morning line, she’s worth a play. The one to fear most is another debut runner, 7-Smokie Eyes, who has displayed ability in the a.m. for a high percentage outfit and seems certain to get plenty of play as the 9/5 morning line favorite. These are the two we’ll be focusing on in our various exotics, with Collaboration being the top play based primarily on price considerations.
Race: Post: 5:05 ET
Top Pick: 1-Silipo (8-1)
Here’s another Linda Rice-trained entrant that has a reasonable chance at a price. Freshened since May and returning to his claim level, this sophomore gelding switches to one of the barn’s “go-to” riders (K. Carmouche), is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga main track, has speed figures that are good enough to win at this level, and always has been reasonably consistent, having finished first or second in five of nine career starts. The son of Candy Ride has the perfect second flight, stalking style for this seven furlong trip for a trainer that sports a solid 18% win rate with layoff runners, so at 8-1 on the morning line there is value to be found. Among those worth including in your various exotics are 9-Swift Tap (first-off-the-claim for Rob Atras, who hits at 28% with this angle and is likely to be a late factor from his cozy outside draw, 5-Dot’s Dollar (certain to have a strong pace presence and will be dangerous if he can shake loose) and 6-Super Gray Leonard (first time gelding, first time for a tag, and likely to improve if held up early and allowed to run late).
*
SARATOA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: Pass/No Play
2nd race: 1a-Glittering Prize; 7-Darn That Song; 3-Yogi
3rd race: Printrack; 5-Never Early; 6-Leddy
4th race: Adelaide Miss; 5-Golden Voice; 6-Charge Account
5th race: a-Java Buzz; 5-Sosua Summer
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 3-Collaboration; 7-Smokie Eyes
7th race: 6-Blewitt; 3-Tiergan
8th race: 1-Silipo; 9-Swift Tap; 5-Dot’s Dollar; 6-Sugar Gray Leonard
9th race: 1-Rocky Sky
10th race: 11-Cathedral Beach; 2-Heads or Tails; 4-Ginnsu Warrior
*
SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
SECOND RACE:
Yogi (July 28, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02.4hg). Grade: B-
May have gone a tick or two quicker than given but was ridden most of the way in solo gate work for J. Antonucci, fair to moderate for daughter of Mineshaft. Not the worst, might be competitive with maiden claimers.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
SIXTH RACE:
Collaboration (July 24, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02.4h). Grade: B
Inside Uncle Marty (same time) for L. Rice and left that one far behind, easy to the wire than ridden out to the 7/8 pole while lengthening out in good style, final half mile on our watches in :37 flat and :50.1, decent enough for juvenile filly by English Channel. Seems certain to be more comfortable on turf than dirt and seems fairly fit.
View Workout Video
Lady Jasmine (July 30, Saratoga, 4f, 49.1b). Grade: C+
Ridden through the lane in solo main track drill for D. Donk, final quarter in :24.4. Hard to say how this will translate to turf, short-striding type.
View Workout Video
Smokie Eyes (July 29, Saratoga, 4f, :49.3h TT). Grade: B-
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Chulligan (4f, :50b TT) and was breezing to the top, then finished head-and-head outside at the wire, neither one really asked much, final quarter in :24.1, nice through the lane but a tad second best. Nyquist filly acts like she’ll handle a distance of ground and should be a fit with maiden juveniles going long.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
