“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
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SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
Fifth Race – Post: 3:21 ET
Top Pick: 6-Mooney Love (2-1)
The local contingent in this non-winners-other-than mini-marathon turf event for older horses doesn’t impress, so let’s go all in on this Italian shipper. The Bill Mott-trained colt makes his U.S. debut following a strong listed stakes win overseas that produced a career top 109 Timeform Rating, which is considerably stronger than par for this level. In the frame in seven of 11 lifetime starts that includes several stakes placings and a third place finish in the Italian Derby-G2, the Irish-bred son of Australia is fresh off the plane, dead fit, and lands Joel Rosario, so it’s not surprising that he is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite. He’s a play in the win pool and a single in the various rolling exotics.
Sixth Race: Post: 3:55 ET
Top pick: 4-Danseur d’Oro (4-1)
Let’s lean to those with prior experience in what looks to be a decent New York-bred juvenile filly sprint. In her debut, this daughter of Bolt d’Oro displayed good speed to press the pace before gradually weakening to wind up a respectable third behind the blazingly quick Andimo Firenze, who subsequently finished third after cutting out hot fractions in the Schuylerville Stakes-G2. Against this group at 4-1 on the morning line, she should be hard to catch with any kind of forward move for a barn that has impressive stats with the second-time starter angle. Gambling Girl received heavy support in her first start (6/5), but after breaking well she lacked early speed before finally generating a bit of steam late to finish a non-threatening fourth. A recent bullet work over the track and an extra furlong to work with today, the daughter of Dialed In may be the one to fear most. The most dangerous of the newcomers may be Miracle, who has been training removed from the public eye at WinStar Farm in Kentucky. The daughter of Mendelssohn looked quite good breezing a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the OBS March Sale, after which she brought $360,00 through the ring. Not necessarily a quick type but with a nice, athletic stride, she picks up Flavian Prat and is worth tossing in at 8-1 on the morning line.
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SARATOA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: Pass/No Play
2nd race: 6-Big Tony’s Girl; 1-Knot Anymore; 4-Daily Briefing
3rd race: 2-Disarmed; 1-Twenty Six Black
4th race: 2-Bella Sofia
5th race: 6-Mooney Love
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 4-Danseur d’Oro; 1-Gambling Girl; 7-Miracle
7th race: 5-Mirth ‘n Merriment; 1-Hatari; 4-Fish Money
8th race: 8-O’Gotten Girl; 5-Preposterous
9th race: 1-High Opinion; 5-Messidor; 7-Evvie Jets
10th race: 11-Aquila Moon; 2-Adam’s Angel3-Liquidity Provider
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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
THIRD RACE:
Disarmed (July 21, Saratoga, 4f, :47.3bg). Grade: –
Inside Acoustic Eve (same time) in main track gate drill and was second best, not asked early, ridden midway, and steadily dropping back to finish about a length behind when eased. Has some speed but was hoping for a bit more punch late, still should be dangerous vs. modest state-bred company.
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FOURTH RACE:
Bella Sofia (July 16, Saratoga, 5f, :59.1b). Grade: B+
Never asked at any stage in solo main track breeze, final quarter mile in :24.2 for Rudy. Unbeaten in two starts this year and holds her form.
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SIXTH RACE:
Silver Skillet (July 7, Saratoga, 4f, :49.4bg, TT). Grade: B-
Ridden along most of the way in team gate drill outside Rutherford (same time), splits of :24.1 and :49.2 for C. Clement. No world beater, okay move, may has a look with New York bred juvenile fillies.
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NINTH RACE:
High Opinion (July 22, Saratoga, 4f, :49.4b TT TX DU). Grade: B+
Breezing through the lane around dogs over training track turf course in solo drill for A. Dutrow, in the bridle throughout while finishing strongly and with plenty left, final quarter mile in :24 and change. Comes off clever stakes win at Parx and maintains his edge.
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TENTH RACE:
Adam’s Angel (July 16, Saratoga, 4f, 37.2b, TT). Grade: B-
Under nice hold in easy three furlong breeze for Shug, final quarter mile in :24.4 while getting fit for comeback. Showed some ability in only start last November and appears to be coming back in good shape.
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Dover Dreams (July7 11, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b YY). Grade: B-
Did okay inside Beyond Perfection (same time) for B. Walsh, never asked in steady half mile breeze, final quarter mile in :25 flat. Getting fit again, away for 10 months, strikes us as a distance type.
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