January 11, 2025
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Santa Anita Park
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 11:30 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 8-Miles Finch.
Backups: 6-Got Soul.
Forecast: Miles Finch returns to a sprint and probably is much more comfortable around one turn. The sophomore son of Vronsky improved his speed figure by nine points after a respectable third in a mile turf state-bred maiden affair at Del Mar in late November. Also, he switches to F. Prat, and projects to settle into a good stalking position and then accelerate when given his cue. In a below average race for the level, the J. Sadler-trained will be odds-on, so he’ll offer no real value other than as a short priced rolling exotic single.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:01 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 6-True Mantra; 5-P Twentytwo.
Backups: 3-Shake the Dusty.
Forecast: We’ll use the two logical runners on the top line in this low level maiden claiming sprint for California-bred sophomores, but otherwise not get too involved. True Mantra, in the frame in all three starts to date, most recently had a nasty beat at Pleasanton when missing by a head. He’ll race with Lasix today, so maybe that will help. The Om gelding seems the one to beat today by default. P Twentytwo was most recently second in a slow race at Pleasanton but prior to that he earned numbers in a pair of outings that would beat this field. Tread lightly here.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1-Stay and Scam
Backups: none.
Forecast: Stay and Scam is listed at 2-5 on the morning line in this year’s edition of Sunshine Millions Filly Turf Sprint. Never off the board in nine starts over the local grass course (with three wins), the daughter of Square Eddie is fast and consistent on numbers and catches a pace-less field that will allow U. Rispoli to settle just about anywhere he wants. Anything close to her best race puts her in the winner’s circle, but at a price far too short to consider.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Mayacama
Backups: 2-Naturally Blonde.
Forecast: Mayacama has rising numbers and in her fourth career start the J. Mullins-trained filly should finally earn her diploma. She’s actually much faster on figures than par for this maiden $50,000 level and projects to be in an ideal pace prompting position before going on with it when called upon. She’s listed at 4/5 on the morning line so against this group she can be used as a rolling exotic single but not much else.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 2-Big City Lights
Backups: none.
Forecast: Big City Lights simply lays over this field, just as he did when winning the Cary Grant S. by more than eight lengths at Del Mar two months ago. He was the odds-on favorite against that group of older state-bred sprinters and will be even shorter today. In an otherwise unplayable race, he’s a rolling exotic single without offering any wagering value.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Colonel Slade; 12-Warren’s C J.
Backups: 8-Santa Barbarian.
Forecast: Colonel Slade looks a tad interesting in this wide open maiden $50,000 sprint for sophomore California-bred runners. He’s a first timer from the J. Bonde with more speed than he’s been allowed to show based on video of his local workouts, so if he can leave cleanly from the rail (no sure thing for a first time starter) the son of Smiling Tiger might be highly competitive at a decent price. Warren’s C J lost whatever chance he might have had in his debut with a poor start but then stayed on gamely through the lane to close a gap and wind up a reasonable fourth, beaten only three lengths. The son of Clubhouse Ride should step forward considerably and pose a real threat at a gambling number.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 5-Cullen J
Backups: none.
Forecast: On paper, we’re looking at another very short price in this California-bred maiden turf sprint for 3-year-olds. Cullen J earned a career top number when narrowly missing in a similar affair at Del Mar last time out after pressing the pace throughout before giving way grudgingly close home. He’ll have to negotiate an extra furlong today but unless one of the newcomers has more early zip that we expect the R. Baltas-trained son of Sir Prancealot projects to dominate from gate to wire. He’s 7/5 on the morning line and might to lower.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Lonesome Slew; 8-Our Bucky Charm.
Backups: 7-Windribbon.
Forecast: Lonesome Slew has really gotten good, winning both of his starts in 2024 at Del Mar after a long layoff, both with fast speed figures while pressing or setting the pace throughout. One of those races was on dirt, the other on grass, so his consistency and versatility is admirable. Also, he’s a perfect one-for-one at Santa Anita, so he’s really hard to find fault with. When M. Glatt-trained runners are this sharp, they usually stay that way. Stablemate Our Bucky Charm won both of his starts last year (one on dirt, one on grass) before being forced to the sidelines. He’s not as fast (yet) as our top pick on numbers, but the way he’s been training for his comeback the son of Munnings could easily be this good. We suspect regular pilot J. Hernandez will employ stalking tactics based on his post position and projected race flow, a tactic he used in his most recent score in a downhill turf dash in a very strong first level allowance race last spring.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 3:32 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10-Old Pal; 11-Aligato.
Backups: 2-On the Whim.
Forecast: There should be enough speed in this year’s edition of the Unusual Heat Turf Classic to set things up for the always dangerous late runner Old Pal, so we’ll put him on top and hope the race shape compliments his style. This nine furlong trip is right up his alley, his numbers are strong, and the M. Glatt-trained son of Grazen looks primed for a career top effort. His stablemate Aligato is worth including on the top line, as well. He’s back with F. Prat and has hit the board in 11 of 13 starts over the Santa Anita sod, so you expect he’ll be a factor from the quarter pole to the wire. Furthermore, his speed figure are quite comparable with ‘Pal’s so we’ll be a bit surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other from the Glatt barn.
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 4:04 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4-R Heisman; 3-Shea Brennan.
Backups: 1-I’m a Bad Boy; 8-Style Cat.
Forecast: This year’s Cal Cup Derby brings together an evenly matched group of 3-year-olds that knows each other well. R Heisman and Shea Brennan are hard to separate but we’ll give the former a slight edge on top due to the return to the Santa Anita main track (arguably his preferred surface) and the switch to F. Prat. ‘Brennan won their last confrontation by nose from I’m A Bad Boy in the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos with R Heisman a close third. Each should have a good chance again today and even Style Cat can be tossed in somewhere in what will be his first try around two turns.
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Santa Anita Race 11: Post: 4:34 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 11-Hey Jessie; 1-Tequilaandtherapy; 10-Grateful My Love.
Backups: 12-Take Another Card; 9-Pavel Is Appealing.
Forecast: This year’s California Cup Oaks is much like the Cal Cup Derby, the male equivalent in the prior race, which is to say there are a bunch of possibilities to consider and a spread strategy mandatory. Hey Jessie won the Soviet Problem Stakes over the Los Alamitos dirt last month and today will try for a repeat over that same one mile distance, this time on grass. The daughter of Grazen broke her maiden two races back on the sod, so the switch in surface shouldn’t be an issue. Tequilaandtherapy lands the good rail and projects to be prominent throughout. She’s genuine and consistent and could find herself on the lead if the pace is moderate. She’s a real pro. Grateful My Love finished a close fourth as the chalk in the Soviet Problem Stakes and should have no issue on grass based on pedigree (she might even move up on the lawn). She switches to F. Prat and even as a three race maiden belongs in the conversation.
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