Jeff Siegel’s Blog: “What You Need to Know – National and Del Mar Best Plays – Saturday, November 11, 2023

“What You Need to Know” – National/Del Mar – Saturday, November 11, 2023
by Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Today’s National Best Plays:
Third Race – Aqueduct (12:50 ET)
5-Authorize (3-1)

He was all the rage around this time two years ago when displaying immense promise in his debut, though missing in a photo after cutting out the fractions in a fast miler for juveniles, but then was virtually eased at 70 cents on the dollar in his next start before being turned out and completely disappearing. Now late in his four year season, he finally makes it back to the post for trainer Bill Mott, who has strong stats with the layoff angle, and with a series of solid workouts that should have him fit and ready, the son of Curlin adds Lasix and catches a field that should allow him to be the controlling speed. At 3-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

Eleventh Race – Churchill Downs (6:05 ET)
1-Loveland (4-1)

Was no match for top prospect Royal Slipper in a fast maiden sprint at Keeneland last month but finished more than four lengths clear of the rest in an excellent debut for trainer Norm Casse and should step forward considerably when that bit of experience behind her. Stretching out and landing the good rail in this middle distance affair for 2-year-old fillies, the daughter of Munnings could inherit the role as the controlling speed but wouldn’t be troubled by a stalking trip if other early speed develops. The barn has superior stats with sprint-to-route angle, so at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll play with confidence in the straight pool and as a single in rolling exotic play.


Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:
Second Race – Del Mar (1:00 PT)
3-Pilot Commander (5/2)

Trainer Bob Baffert is represented by three highly regarded entrants in this seven runner maiden sprint for juveniles, with debuting Imagination listed as the morning line favorite at 2-1. The son of Into Mischief has displayed excellent speed without ever being asked in morning trials and is sure to receive plenty of support. British Isles, a better-than-looked sixth behind runaway stable mate Nysos in a blazing affair last month at Santa Anita, lands the lovely outside draw and will have clear sailing and every chance to produce a significant forward move. However, the one that we’ll gamble on is Pilot Commander, a son of Justify who has outworked everything led up to him and in due time may prove to be the best of the lot. Though perhaps not as quick as Imagination, the $700,000 OBS March Sale purchase is a lovely mover with a plenty of stamina, and while six furlongs might prove to be a bit sharp he nonetheless could have enough class and quality to graduate at first asking. There’s good value at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it.

Fifth Race – Del Mar (2:30 PT)
5-She’s Got A Way (5/2)

The morning line favorite in this abbreviated turf sprint for second level allowance sprinting fillies and mares is the speedy Kissed by Fire at 5/2 by virtue of back-to-back recent wins, including a maiden victory over this course and distance in August and then an entry-level affair last month at Santa Anita. However, it’s her Peter Eurton-trained stablemate She’s Got A Way that we’re more interested in, especially due to the discrepancy in odds. Herself a clever winner at this five furlong trip over the local lawn during the summer meeting, the daughter of Tonalist is most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home, and in a field loaded with front running types she’ll have every opportunity to tag the speed close home. Freshened since late August and showing a steady, healthy recent work pattern, she appears ready to produce another career top effort, so at 5-1 on the morning we’ll accept what we view as reasonable wagering value.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: “What You Need to Know – National and Del Mar Best Plays – Saturday, November 11, 2023

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