June 24, 2023
Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
(listed in chronological order)
Thistledown – 5th race: 7-Onasa (3-1). Post time: 1:52 ET
Developing with every start, this sophomore colt earned a career top speed figure when dismantling a maiden special weight field over a wet fast (officially labeled muddy) main track at Hawthorne in March with complete authority. Though moving up a notch after accompanying stable mate Two Phil’s on the 357 mile van ride from Chicago to North Randall, the Larry Rivelli-trained shipper should be able to successfully handle the tougher assignment. Freshened for three months but from a barn that hits at a superior 39% (plus a massive ROI) with the layoff angle, the son of Always Dreaming can step forward again while offering excellent wagering value at anywhere near his morning line of 3-1 in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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Belmont Park – 6th race: 3-Luguria (7/2). Post time: 3:41 ET
We’re not sure how she will handle the potential softish footing due to the expected overnight rains, but we fully expect this lightly raced $275,000 Keeneland purchase to produce a career top performance in the listed Wild Applause Stakes after finishing fifth with a somewhat less than ideal trip in her seasonable bow in the Edgewood Stakes-G2 last month at Churchill Downs. Saving ground behind the leaders to the head of the lane, she lacked room briefly to lose some of her momentum before flattening out late to wind up fifth behind Heavenly Sunday but beaten just a length and one-half at the wire. She ran like a short horse, and just as she did last year when producing a significant forward move between her first and second races, we’re expecting the Chad Brown-trained sophomore to be fitter and stronger with that effort behind her. The Christophe Clement-trained Breath Aways is the likely favorite and the one to beat, but at 7/2 on the morning line this daughter of War Front is worth a reasonable gamble.
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Gulfstream Park – 7th race: 1-Dreams Float (8/5). Post time: 3:54 ET
Here’s a talented first-time starter that appears ready to win right now in this two-turn maiden special weight all-weather affair restricted to 3-year-old fillies. The well-regarded daughter of Uncle Mo from stakes winning Martha’s Moon has done some very good work in the morning for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. in a series that includes a recent bullet drill (4f, :48.3b, fastest of 11) and several other morning moves that caught the eye. A leggy, lengthy filly that has “router” written all over her, this $230,000 Keeneland yearling purchase lands the favorable rail and really doesn’t have a whole lot to worry about from those that already have been exposed. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go even lower than that, she can be played as a confident single in the various rolling exotics.
