“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Storming Lady; 12-Miss Carousel; 5-Bristol Bayou
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a grass grab bag starter’s allowance five furlong dash that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three deep, but you should use as many as your budget allows. Storming Lady (TOC=7-1; ML=7/2) should draft into a proper second flight, stalking position and have every chance from there to get back on the winning track. She returns protected in her first outing since November while showing a steady but slow-and-easy series of drills that should have her fit enough. She’s run well fresh in the past, and a repeat of her clever win two races back charts very well with these. Miss Carousel (TOC=7-1; ML=5-1) had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post that seems likely to greatly comprises her chances, but she’s won her last pair in good style with rising speed figures, so if she can fold over and save some ground before the field hits the turn, she may have a reasonable look. According to the form, she either wins, or you can’t find her. Bristol Bayou (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1) always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent but she’s winless in nine career starts on turf. Her dirt numbers are strong, but, well, they’re dirt numbers. We’ll toss her in as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Straus’s Place
Forecast: Straus’s Place has rising speed figures and is relatively lightly-raced with further improvement possible, so in this modest bottom-rung maiden claiming router for older horses the P. D’Amato-trained gelding looks ready to graduate. He’s listed as the second choice on the morning line at 2-1 but could go lower if the wagering public decides it’s had enough of Funkenstein, the 6/5 ML choice who has finished second six times in 10 career starts and seemingly doesn’t have a winning punch. At a short price, we’ll let him beat us.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Single: 7-Rocky Gibraltar
Forecast: We’ll handicap this race under the assumption that the 8/5 morning line favorite Liberty Forever will scratch, a strong possibility according to reports from yesterday. Rocky Gibraltar has trained well enough (see below) to win at first asking in this below-standard state-bred maiden special weight turf sprint for sophomores. The son of Shaman Ghost is comfortably drawn outside, lands the stable’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez, and should be able to outrun this group, assuming he breaks at least decently. The J. Sadler-trained colt is a win play and rolling exotic single.
Cool Acclaim (January 23, Santa Anita, 6f. 1:16.2hg). Grade: C-
Under heavy pressure from the top of the lane to the wire but was second best behind Midnight Silence (6f, 1:16hg), splits of :24.3, :36.3, :49 flat and 1:16.4 on our watches, pretty much all out to the end. Pass for now.
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Synnin and Winnin (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h). Grade: C
In blinkers, was two lengths in front of Evelyn’s Girl (same time) when we picked up this team entering the far turn, with ‘Winnin then finishing slightly second best at the wire while all out under urging in the final furlong, :37.1 for the final three eighths of a mile. Didn’t show a whole lot in her debut and didn’t really step forward in this drill.
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Rocky Gibraltar (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01hg). Grade: B-
Broke slowly in gate drill with Kalon (same time) but rushed up to be head-and-head throughout without undue pressure, slower than given but not bad under the circumstances, splits of :24.1, :36.3, :48.3 and 1:02.1 (eased to the wire in 1:15.4. Has some ability and should be live in debut, assuming he breaks with his field.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 4-Doppelganger; 2-Pinehurst
Forecast: Three of the five starters in this year’s renewal of the San Vicente S.-G2 are owned by the same partnership group and trained by B. Baffert. Doppelganger (TOC=9/2; ML=8/5) scored at first asking from off the pace in excellent style at Los Alamitos and should adore this extended sprint distance. The son of Into Mischief projects to settle behind the leaders and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Del Mar Futurity S.-G1 winner Pinehurst (TOC-3/5; ML=5/2), freshened since weakening in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S.-G1 in November, has looked sharp in the a.m. and is back around one turn where he belongs. Reunited with “win rider” M. Smith, the son of Twirling Candy deserves to be the heavy favorite based on the analytics (we’re not so sure about that) and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Doppelganger on top.
Notable Workouts:
Forbidden Kingdom (January 19, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:28.4h). Grade: B
Stamina-building drill by son of American Pharoah, very slowly early but smooth through the lane before continuing out to seven furlong pole under mild coaxing, splits of :26.3, :38.3, :50.3, 1:16 flat and 1:28.4 for R. Mandella. Has plenty of early speed but showed here the ability to relax and switch off before kicking home well. Freshened since November and has a chance to be a pretty nice-year-old.
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Pinehurst (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B+
Strong gate drill for B. Baffert while much best over Varda (5f, 1:00.3hg), splits of :213.4, :35 flat, :47 flat and :59.4, ridden some through the lane after being allowed to show his speed down the backside. Del Mar Futurity winner has his speed but probably should be kept around one turn for now. Seems fit enough.
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McLaren Vale (January 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: B+
Stride-for-stride outside Doppelganger (same time) for B. Baffert and may have been going a tad the easier in the late stages, sharp drill for both, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.4 on our watches. Broke his maiden in good style first time out and has come on well since. Gets tested for class in the San Vicente S.-G2.
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Doppelganger (January 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Much best drawing clear outside Montebello (5f, 1:01h) with strong late strides, two lengths in front at the wire with splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.3 on our watches, a bit slower than given but sharp, nonetheless. Acts like a type that wants to settle early and cut loose late, so we’ll be expecting patient tactics in the San Vicente S.-G2.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:52 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-She’s Got a Way; 1-Cuban Crisis
Forecast: She’s Got a Way adds Lasix, shows the route-to-sprint angle, and seems as good as any in this below average turf sprint for maiden special weight sophomore fillies. She should be forwardly placed throughout in a race that projects to have soft early fractions. Cuban Crisis ran well in her only outing overseas (second, beaten a neck) in an all-weather affair at Kempton. That effort, if repeated today, makes her a major player under leading rider F. Prat. Hopefully, she’ll be able to use her rail post position to good advantage. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; if you find the need to add a few more, go right ahead.
Notable Workouts:
Cuban Crisis (January 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.2h TT). Grade: B-
English import was a bit keen early while under a hold and going off slowly in :26 flat and :38.1, then was asked a bit through the lane and finished up okay, 1:03.3 on our watches, not too bad for M. Glatt. Hard to gauge but ran well in her only outing overseas and should be competitive on this circuit vs. maidens sprinting on turf.
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Midnight Silence (January 23, Santa Anita, 6f. 1:16hg). Grade: C+
J. Pyfer up, in blinkers, a bit sluggish leaving the gate and earned slow final time but was much best over Cool Acclaim (6f, 1:16.2hg) while never really being asked much and breezing through the lane (workmate under hard urging), :24.3, :36.3, :49 flat and 1:16.2 on our watches. Certainly could have gone faster if permitted, clearly no world beater but not the worst, either.
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Granola Girl (January 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: C+
High-actioned filly was late changing leads and never really got much going in solo training track drill for R. Baltas, final three furlongs in :37 flat. Seems about the same.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:22 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 3-Bellamore; 2-Ironic Twist
Forecast: Bellamore flashed ability when runner-up in a pair of strong maiden sprints during a brief juvenile campaign in 2020, though she did burn money as the favorite both times. She makes her local debut for new trainer S. Callaghan after missing her entire sophomore campaign, but her recent workouts have been solid (see below), so if she returns as well as she left the daughter of Empire Maker will be hard to beat. Ironic Twist is bred for speed (Distorted Humor) and has trained well enough for her debut to warrant inclusion in rolling exotic play, at least, as a back-up. She’s had some trouble leaving the gate in the a.m. but has displayed ability once in motion, so at 8-1 on the morning line she’s somewhat enticing.
Notable Workouts:
Family Affair (January 24, Santa Anita, 3f, 36.1hg). Grade: C
Lacked gate speed and was last of three in team gate drill with Saburo’s Promise (4f, :49hg) and Saburo’s Shot (4f, :50.3hg) for P. Eurton while gearing up for debut. Certainly doesn’t act like a win-early type based on this drill. Let’s see one first.
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Ironic Twist (January 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4hg). Grade: B-
In blinkers, not real quick leaving the barrier but was much best in team drill with Halfbarberbingie (5f, 1:01.1hg) for M. Glatt, ridden from the gate to quickly open up while looking fairly decent with splits of :24.2, :36.2 and :48.2 on our watches. Four-year-old daughter of Distorted Humor has had some gate issues while preparing for debut but definitely has some run. Hopefully, she breaks with her field in the afternoon.
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Bellamore (January 20, Santa Anita,5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Blinkers on, shadow roll, finished with nice strides while mostly on her own and with plenty left, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :36.2 for S. Callaghan. Looks fit enough and showed some promise in a pair of runner-up efforts back east as a 2-year-old. Daughter of Empire Maker should be tough vs. maidens in local debut.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Burgoo Alley; 4-Bodhictta; 2-Warren’s Showtime
Forecast: Burgoo Alley (TOC=7-1; ML=4-1) couldn’t cope with the main track and was eased in the off-the-grass American Oaks-G1 last month, but she returns to her preferred surface today in this year’s edition of the Megahertz S.-G3 and seems likely to bounce back with a big effort. The Irish-bred filly has a good stalking style, and in a race that should have comfortable early splits the P. D’Amato-trained filly projects to be in the right place every step of the way. Bodhicitta (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) is a three-time winner over the local lawn and looked quite sharp (see below) in a recent breeze on turf. It’s been awhile since she’s won a race, but on pure numbers, she’s a strong fit and a major contender. Warren’s Showtime (TOC=3/2; ML=5/2) always is a late threat, and it’s hard to ignore her lifetime record over the Santa Anita turf course (six wins in 13 starts). With some help up front, she’ll be heard from late.
Notable Workouts:
Bodhicitta (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TC). Grade: B+
In blinkers, never really asked much in solo turf drill for R. Baltas while working in the middle of the course, final three furlongs in :35.2. Doing well and maintains her form.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Essential Wager
Forecast: Essential Wager (TOC=3/5; ML=5/2) gets a class test today in this year’s edition of the Palos Verdes S.-G3 after being so impressive breaking his maiden at Del Mar two races back and then earning a huge speed figure in a dominant first-level allowance sprint at Los Alamitos in mid-December. He looks very much like the controlling speed, and if he can get away with a soft opening quarter, the son of Honor Code should roll all the way to the wire. Workouts in recent weeks (see below) have been exceptional, so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Essential Wager (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
Worked inside Cezanne (same time) and was always going the better of the two with splits of :22.4 and :47.1 from the half mile pole to the wire on our watches, almost a length in front without need of urging (workmate asked a bit). Honor Code colt gets tested for class in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 and could easily be up to the task. Workmate had to be niggled out late but couldn’t quite keep pace while preparing for his first start since April.
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Cezanne (January 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B
See Essential Wager above.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Annie’s Song; 5-Pammy’s Ready
Forecast: Annie’s Song looks ready to graduate while stretching out again in this maiden turf miler for sophomore fillies. Third in both local starts after being imported from Ireland, the P. D’Amato-trained should inherit a soft stalking position and then have her chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. Pammy’s Ready, returns to grass, adds Lasix, and seems likely to be the controlling speed. If she can shake loose early without pressure, she could take this field a very long way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Annie’s Song.
Notable Workouts:
Duvet Day (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:04h). Grade: C+
See Exit Soul below.
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Exit Soul (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.4h). Grade: C+
About a length best outside Duvet Day (5f, 1:04h) in main track drill for M. McCarthy, final three furlongs in a sluggish :38.4. Neither one impressive, both probably need turf to show their best.
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