“WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW” – SARATOGA
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).
SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:
FIFTH RACE – Post: 3:21 ET
Top Pick: 2-U Glow Girl (5/2)
We haven’t seen this filly breeze on video, so this is more of a circumstantial selection than a pick with great conviction, but the evidence suggests the Brad Cox-trained juvenile filly is live and well-meant after showing a healthy pattern of Kentucky workouts before shipping in, and it may be significant that she surfaces at Saratoga and not Ellis Park. Furthermore, she is eligible to this restricted maiden-special-weight affair for having gone through the ring for $50,000, which meets the cut-off sales price right on the nose. The barn has solid stats with debut runners, and a recent half mile gate work at Keeneland (:47 1/5 seconds, second fastest of 36) catches the eye, so with “go to” rider Flavian Prat taking the call in a race in which the known element doesn’t overwhelm, a fresh face may be the way to go. For exacta and rolling exotic players, consider another sneaky newcomer, 5-Leave No Trace, even though the barn has weak stats with the first timer angle. The daughter of Outwork, a $40,000 yearling buy, has several workouts at Belmont Park with times that indicate at least some ability and a steady pattern that should have her more than fit enough.
EIGHTH RACE: Post: 5:05 ET
Top Pick: 9-Mischievous Diane (4-1)
Here’s a progressive sophomore filly fresh from a highly rated allowance win at Belmont Park in her comeback last month, and if she can step forward again the daughter of Practical Joke will have every chance to repeat on the raise while offering value at or near her morning line of 4-1. If she’s going to be a stakes-type 3-year-old filly, this is the kind of race she needs to win, and it won’t be easy, as there are two other major players she’ll have to outrun. 2-Smash Ticket, likely the quickest in the field, earned a monster number beating nothing at Lone Star Park in late May and then was scratched here opening week from the Victory Ride Stakes due to a reported workman’s comp issue. She was since transferred to the Rob Atras barn, so we’re not quite sure what to expect, but if she fires her best shot she’ll be right there. 1a-Piece of My Heart is drawn ideally outside, and while she doesn’t always punch it in, the Danny Gargan-trained mare should find herself in the proper spot every step of the way. At 4-1 on the morning line, she seems likely to at least hit the board.
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SANTA ANITA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:
(Races 1-5)
1st race: Pass/No Play
2nd race: 1-Evoking. Backup: 4-Mariah’s Fortune
3rd race: 7-Izeamalibumoon; 5-Aunt Virginia. Backups: 8-Gracefully Wild; 9-Rent Control
4th race: 1-Out of Sight; 4-Home for Christmas.
5th race: U Glow Girl; 5-Leave No Trace. Backup: 3-Numero Seis
(Races 6-10)
6th race: 6-Happy Farm; 5-Aristocratic; 2-Cooper Town
7th race: 2-Crowding Out; 3-Hey There. Backups: 4-Bali Dove; 9-Libretto
8th race: 9-Mischeivous Diane; 2-Smash Ticket; 1a-Piece of My Heart
9th race: 5-She’s a Mia; 1-Classic Lynne. Backup: 3-Lisa’s Vision
10th race: 3-Super Quality; 6-Blinding Light; 7-Big Woo. Backup: 4-Rugged Union
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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:
SECOND RACE:
Evoking (July 8, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1b TT). Grade: B
Hard held leaving the pole and was a bit rank to the top, then finished in rhythm without ever being asked, :24 flat from the quarter pole to the wire in solo training track breeze for J. Thomas before galloping out with plenty left (hard to pull up) and appearing sharp and eager. Obviously has problems – she was stopped on after easy maiden debut win 14 months ago and returns for a moderate tag – but if she has at least one good one left the daughter of Union Rags should be difficult to beat against this bunch.
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Babyitsgoldoutside (July 7, Saratoga, 4f, :52b TT). Grade: B-
Under stout restraint throughout in slow (and very easy) half mile training track breeze for J. Englehart, :27.2 from the quarter pole to the wire, nothing more than a gallop. In good enough shape and seems likely to benefit from a class drop to the modest claiming ranks.
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THIRD RACE:
Fuligni (July 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.3b TT). Grade: B-
Went off very slowly under a hold, was rough changing leads, but was never asked inside Cerretalto (same time), final quarter mile in :24.2. decent through the lane. Was entered for main track only in this maiden claimer so he is not likely to start.
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FIFTH RACE:
Numero Seis (July 15, Saratoga, 4f, :50.1b TT DU). Grade: B
Team drill around dogs over the training track turf course inside Shackled By Lust (same time) and was a slightly best without being asked through the lane, nice move for J. Sharp. Should handle grass when and if she’s given the chance but was entered today in a main track affair after displaying a bit of ability in her debut on dirt at Churchill Downs last month.
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Stellar Lady (July 15, Saratoga, 4f, :49.3b TT). Grade: B-
Stride-for-stride outside Empress Isabel (same time) in team training track drill, final quarter mile in :24.4, mild coaxing early and then mostly on her own through the lane. Not bad, hard to gauge, but we would tend to want to see one first.
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EIGHTH RACE:
Far Away Love (July 7, Saratoga, 4f, :48.4b TT). Grade: B-
Ridden a bit most of the way in team gate training track drill for W. Mott while about a length in front of maiden Jocosity (same time), okay drill but certainly not scintillating for South American Group-stakes winner. Form in Argentina is good, but we’d probably prefer a local race to see where she fits on this circuit.
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NINTH RACE:
Lisa’s Vision (July 15, Saratoga, 5f, 1:04h.1 b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
Broke off a couple of lengths behind outside Linear Thinking (same time) and then closed the gap entering the lane before winding up about a neck back at the wire, neither one asked much, final quarter mile around dogs in :25 flat, nice enough for J. Abreu. Handled a maiden state-bred field rather convincingly at Belmont Park last time out and appears to have further improvement in her. Extra distance shouldn’t be an issue.
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Classic Lynne (July 10, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b). Grade: B
Easy breeze for J. Sharp outside La Neblina (same time), :48.2 on our watches, a tad best at the wire but second best on the gallop out. Seems in good enough shape, was scratched on Sunday out of a much easier allowance to remain in this stakes affair, so we assume she’s well-liked by her connections.
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