The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, June 9, 2019
Use: 1-Untouched Elegance; 9-Atina
Forecast: Untouched Elegance projects to be the controlling speed from her inside draw and will appreciate this return to a mile on grass, conditions that saw her finish an excellent second with a powerful speed figure two runs back. The Baltas-trained daughter of Bodemeister has trained well at San Luis Rey Downs since her most recent outing, so we’ll put her solidly on top. Atina likely will drop back from her outside draw and then produce one run, and the Drysdale-trained filly should be heard from late. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Untouched Elegance.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Popular Kid
Forecast: Popular Kid has been disappointing in his last three starts but remains protected in this starter’s allowance $16,000 affair and switches to Prat. The Hollendorfer-trained gelding is facing a considerably softer bunch than he’s been seeing of late, so we’re expecting a major bounce back performance over a main track he’s always liked. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Madaket Sunset; 7-Truffalino
Forecast: Madaket Sunset just crushed a starter’s allowance field over a mile on this turf course while earning a career top speed figure and today she’ll try to stretch her speed over 10 furlongs. From her favorable inside draw the O’Neill-trained filly could establish the running or save ground and stalk, whichever Bejarano chooses to do. Based strictly on pedigree this extra distance should be within her range. Truffalino, certainly bred to like this mile and one-quarter trip, has steadily rising speed figures an appears to be the most dangerous of the closing types. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotic play with preference on top to Madaket Sunset.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Baby Gronk; 7-Jen Go Unchained
Forecast: Baby Gronk has burned money in four of his five career starts, and he’s listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite today, so while the class drop from straight maiden to maiden-claiming is a powerful angle this Spawr-trained gelding really isn’t one to trust. Yet, based strictly on speed figures he really shouldn’t miss this opportunity. Jen Go Unchained, though much slower on numbers, is comfortably drawn outside, seems to be improving, and also is showing up for tag for the first time. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-And Counting; 5-Appolina
Forecast: And Counting drops for the money run and on pure numbers looks best of a modest lot. She makes a major jockey switch to Prat and should be on or near the lead throughout. Appolina was beaten at even money when second in a similar maiden claimer last month but she did finish almost four lengths clear of the others, so the Baffert-trained filly may deserve another chance. We’ll use her on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play while preferring And Counting on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Ginger Nut; 4-Rafal
Forecast: After failing at 2/5 in his debut, Rafal put things together in his next start, graduating for fun in a fast, highly-rated race. Today he tries grass and stakes foes, but the Baffert-trained son of Alpha might simply be too quick for these at this five furlong trip. He’s 3-1 on the morning line and we’ll take that if we can get it. Ginger Nut, a filly tackling boys, won a turf sprint stakes at Keeneland in April from far back, and similar late-closing tactics will be employed today. However that’s not the preferred way to win over this course and distance. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press in the straight pool with Rafal on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Hansen Tale Blues; 6-Girona
Forecast: Hansen Tale Blues looks ready to graduate in her eight career start, having little to beat in this maiden $30,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Second in her last pair with rising speed figures, she really won’t have to improve to win while low profile connections should keep her price close to her 3-1 morning line. Girona should be tossed in as well. Though well-beaten when receiving no action at 49-1 in her debut, the Glatt-trained filly has the maiden-to-maiden-claiming angle working for her and the barn is solid with second-timers.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Taylor and Burton; 4-Miss Hot Legs; 9-Objective
Forecast: Taylor and Burton had an outing way back in July of 2017 at Del Mar and was disappointing as the favorite, but she returns as a 4-year-old and can be expected to show her true stuff this time around. The barn has superior stats with layoff runs, and the work tab at Los Alamitos indicates the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile is fit and ready. Miss Hot Legs, a closing second in her debut over this course and distance, adds Lasix and seems certain to produce a forward move, while Objective is another with a good late turn of foot, and with racing luck and some help up front she could be heard from in the final furlong.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Karmically; 3-Into Chocolate; 4-Sunny Dale
Forecast: Into Chocolate, a closing but distant third in her strong maiden sprint in her debut, seems certain to be improve off that outing and today stretches out to a mile distance that should be well within her range. The switch to Smith is a major plus and the work pattern since her first outing at San Luis Rey Downs should have her primed and ready. Karmically also is going long after a decent sprint performance in her debut, and the daughter of Union Rags should step forward as the distances increase. She’s a fit on speed figures and a major contender from a good inside draw. Sunny Dale tries dirt for the first time and certainly is bred for it (Medaglia d’Oro). Prat will have running on strongly late. All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Into Chocolate a slight edge on top.