Jeff Siegel’s Churchill Downs/Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, May 5, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Saturday May 5, 2018

  

RACE 1: Post 10:30 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Share the Upside; 6-Once On Whiskey

Video Analysis

 

RACE 2: Post 11:01 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Summer Luck; 6-Big Gray Rocket

Video Analysis

 

RACE 3: Post 11:31 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Irish Freedom

Video Analysis

 

RACE 4: Post 12:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Ding Dong Ditch

Video Analysis

 

RACE 5: Post 12:35 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 8-McCraken; 9-Dazzling Gem

Video Analysis

 

RACE 6: Post 1:35 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Ivy Bell; 8-American Gal

Video Analysis

 

RACE 7: Post 1:55 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Dream Awhile; 9-On Leave; 11-La Colonel

Video Analysis

 

RACE 8: Post 2:45 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Whitmore; 3-Imperial Hint; 5-Outplay; 10-Awesome Slew

Video Analysis

 

RACE 9: Post 3:37 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Speed Franco; 2-Inscom; 6-River Boyne

Video Analysis

 

RACE 10: Post 4:28 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Mask

Video Analysis

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:25 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Kurilov; 7-Synchrony; 10-Beach Patrol

Video Analysis

 

RACE 12: Post: 6:50 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Good Magic; 7-Justify; 14-Mendelssohn

Video Analysis

 

RACE 13: Post: 7:50 ET.  Grade:

Use:  1-Battle At Sea; 9-Regal Quality; 11-King Zachary

Video Analysis

 

RACE 14: Post: 8:20 ET.  Grade:

Use: 6-Limation; 8-Elusive Hero

Video Analysis

 

 

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, May 5, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Lynn’s Legacy; 4-Subric Bay

Forecast:  Restricted $25,000 claiming fillies meet over nine furlongs in the opener; we’ve got the race down to two main players.  Our top pick, Subic Bay, first or second in five of 10 career starts and with rising speed figures, looks properly spotted after an impressive win over this course last month.  Bug boy Espinoza stays aboard and will have this Mullins-trained filly rolling late.  Lynne’s Legacy surfaces for a tag for the first time and should benefit greatly from the class relief.  On numbers she’s a fit and should be heard from in the final furlong.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Luck’s Royal Flush; 8-Settle It

Forecast: State-bred juveniles sprint four and one-half furlongs in the second race, with Luck’s Royal Flush and Settle It likely to receive the bulk of the action. Luck’s Royal Flush sports a bullet 35 1/5 seconds gate work last week to indicate he has plenty of zip, and the son of Lucky Pulpit appears very well meant first crack out of the box.  Settle It has done some good work in the morning for O’Neill; she’s tackling boys but this early in the season fillies tend to be more precocious than the boys and often have an edge.  We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Tiz Toffee; 7-Amada Rafaela

Forecast:  Amada Rafaela has been burning up the track in a.m. drills and looks fit and ready to win at first asking at what should be a very short price.  The Baffert-trained daughter of Distorted Humor lands the cozy outside post and can stalk and pounce or pop and go depending on how the race develops.  Tiz Toffee looks like the best of the known element and should improve with the return to the main track.  She has enough speed to be a strong pace factor throughout, her rail post notwithstanding.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press keying Amada Rafaela on extra tickets.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:46 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  3-More Honor; 4-La La Land; 8-Restrainedvengence

Forecast: The Singletary Stakes is a one mile turf affair for 3-year-olds that looks somewhat treacherous.  We’ll try to get by using just three, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.  Restrainedvengence made his seasonal bow in a downhill turf allowance sprint and scored gamely from a stalking position; today we expect to see the Hold Me Back gelding on the lead from the get-go.  An easy winner over this course and distance when breaking his maiden last fall, the Brinkerhoff-trained colt will be hard to catch if not policed early.  La La Land exits the Pasadena Stakes and acquitted himself well by finishing with interest to be third.  He’s a first-time gelding today and seems the most dangerous of the closers.  More Honor is a progressive son of More Than Ready coming off a clever maiden score over the Hillside course; if his improvement continues the Glatt-trained gelding could get a piece of it and maybe even more than that.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Twisted Rosie; 5-Mixed Emotions

Forecast:  Twisted Rosie is a tad quicker on speed figures than Mixed Emotions but both have room for further improvement, so we’ll double the race using just these two in this state-bred entry-level allowance event for fillies and mares over seven furlongs.  Twisted Rosie, a strong runner-up in a $32,000 claimer last month, is protected today in a sign of confidence by Bonde and has the style to enjoy this extended sprint distance.  Mixed Emotions won a maiden claimer two runs back and then came right back to register a smart starter’s allowance score in her most recent appearance; with another forward move she’ll be hard to deny.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Fahan Mura; 8-Fizzy Friday

Forecast:  Fahan Mura seeks her fourth straight win since joining the Cerin barn and if her improvement continues number five will be well within her grasp.  The daughter of English Channel annihilated a first-level allowance field in late March with a stakes-quality speed figure, and although she won that race gate-to-wire she’s certainly not a need-the-lead type.  She’s 5/2 on the morning line but is likely to go lower.  Fuerza had prep down the hill to shake the rust off and should move forward with that effort behind her coupled with the stretch out in trip.  She’ll be doing her best work from off the pace and offers a bit of value at or near her morning line of 10-1.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with strong preference on top to Fahan Mura.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 1-West Palm Beach

Forecast:  West Palm Beach was visually pleasing winning her U.S. debut for Callaghan – a race that earned a solid number and has proven to be productive – and this daughter of Scat Daddy seems quite capable of scoring right back despite this raise into graded stakes company.  With Prat riding at Churchill Downs today, Baze picks up a very live mount.  She’s 5/2 on the morning line and there’s value there if you can get it, so let’s make this Irish-bred filly a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:52 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Mach Speed; 5-North County Guy; 7-Quad

Forecast:  This maiden claiming extended sprint for 3-year-olds is a below average affair with nothing among the known element to trust.  Mach Speed is a first-timer from a clever outfit and certainly won’t have to be a world beater to be competitive with this group.  The work tab isn’t flashy but solid enough to have the son of Overdriven fit for a good effort first time out.   North County Guy was a tad disappointing in his first start since December when weakening under pressure vs. similar but should be fitter and tighter today and will likely stick better.  Quad is re-equipped with blinkers in his second off a layoff for Sherlock and should produce a forward move after flashing speed in the same race Quad exits.  He’ll have to deal with an extra furlong today and his stick is suspect, so we’ll use him but only on a ticket or two.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:22 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Make It a Triple; 3-Conquest Superstar; 10-Oiseau de Guerre

Forecast: Conquest Superstar launches a comeback for Gary Mandella and his work pattern indicates he’s coming back as well as he left.  Unraced since flashing promise in a couple of outings in the spring of his 3-year-old season in 2016, the son of Uncle Mo won his debut so you know he can fire fresh, and in this entry-level allowance field he seems capable of stalking and pouncing late.  Make It a Triple had the misfortune of drawing the rail – not really the place to be in these downhill turf sprints – but the son of Misremembered is racing in excellent form and will be tough if he can reproduce his dirt form on grass.  Oiseau de Guerre graduated over this course and distance two runs back and then was a non-threatening third at this level in his most recent outing.  He’ll get the patient ride he needs from Blanc and if a fast pace materializes he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:52 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Bad Boy Leroy; 6-Glorious Crown; 11-Zap Again

Forecast:  This restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint is another challenging affair.  Bad Boy Leroy takes a dramatic class drop to indicate he may have some issues, but a repeat of his seven length maiden claiming win two runs back will make him hard to beat.  Even his most recent outing, a disappointing effort vs. starter’s allowance foes, charts well here.  Glorious Crown is racing in good form and is a solid fit on numbers and current condition, while Zap Again, yet another class dropper, should draft into a comfortable second flight position outside and have every chance to produce a rally from the quarter pole home.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Bad Boy Leroy on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 11: Post 6:22 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Rustic Canyon; 5-Conquest Smartee; 10-Kinematico

Forecast:  The finale is a grass grab bag for maiden claimers sprinting down the hill.  Conquest Smartee may be as good as any; the Sadler-trained colt finished a close third – beaten a half-length – when facing similar foes under these conditions last month and not much more will be needed to earn his diploma.  However, he’s winless in six outings over the local lawn and may not be one to totally trust.  Kinematico ran reasonably well when third in a Hillside sprint last year but has been routing ever since.  This turn back in trip might wake him up.  Rustic Canyon probably is worth including somewhere at 12-1 on the morning line; the Gaines-trained gelding may be effective if held up early and allowed to run late.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Churchill Downs/Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, May 5, 2018