Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Thursday, October 24, 2019
*
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Today’s Day Makers: View Video
*
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-I Can Do This; 4-Jamminwithbrandon
Forecast: The opener drew a field of five with two main contenders that are difficult to distinguish. We’ll use both but otherwise pass the race. I Can Do This has a lifetime record of 1-for-14 but at least the win came over the Santa Anita main track. Second while more than five lengths clear of the rest at Los Alamitos five weeks ago, the M. Glatt-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure in doing so and if he duplicates that effort today he’ll most likely win. Jamminwithbrandon also has a prior win over the local main track and takes a significant class drop from a first-level allowance race into a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer. He’s certainly fast enough on numbers to win in this league but has no tactical speed and may need some help up front.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Lady Sunset; 6-Too Much Heaven
Forecast: Too Much Heaven displayed some early speed before fading in her debut when facing infinitely tougher competition at Los Alamitos six weeks ago and this drop into the maiden $30,000 ranks should allow her stick around a whole lot longer. In a soft affair, the daughter of Twirling Candy should produce a significant forward move. Lady Sunset, a distant runner-up in her last pair, has numbers that make her a fit but at 6/5 on the morning line won’t be offering any wagering value. We’ll take a shot with Too Much Heaven on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Sophie Antoinette; 5-Velvet Queen
Forecast: Popular at the claim box and now in the D. Hofmans barn, Sophie Antoinette gets some weight off with the switch to good bug boy J. Diaz, Jr., lands the rail, and with patient handling may improve enough to handle this $50,000 claiming turf miler for 3-year-old fillies. She went too fast and paid the price late when fading vs. similar at Del Mar in late August; she’s clearly most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and that’s the strategy that almost certainly will be employed today. Velvet Queen is the likely choice and one to beat. She adds blinkers for the first time, regains F. Prat, and is clearly fast enough on speed figures to deserve the bulk of public’s play. Due to price considerations we’ll give Sophie Antoinette the edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Desert General; 8-Short of Ez
Forecast: Short of Ez lands the cozy outside post and can dictate the race flow by either popping and going or stalking or pouncing. A good winner over this main track last winter and switching to F. Prat, he’ll be making his third start in his current form cycle and should improve enough to be tough to beat at the cheapest level ($10,000) he’s ever raced at. Desert General beat slightly softer field at Los Alamitos in late September and is bumped a notch by his winning connections. On pure numbers, he’s right there. We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play and then press a bit keying Short of Ez on top.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Awesome Heights; 8-Getaloadofthis
Forecast: Getaloadofthis may be most comfortable as a turf sprinter – arguably his best race came when winning an abbreviated dash over the Golden Gate Fields lawn – and with the switch to F. Prat combined with a one-level drop in class the son of Graydar seems to have found ideal conditions for a return to the winner’s circle. He’s plenty quick, but is just as effective as a stalker, so the jockey has options. Awesome Heights is re-equipped with blinkers (he wore them once before without success), drops two levels in class, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy J. Velez. The Awesome Again gelding is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and on raw form deserves to be. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Getaloadofthis.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Colonel Power
Forecast: Colonel Power has little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claimer for older fillies and mares and despite fading badly when favored vs. similar at Los Alamitos last month is more than good enough to handle this modest task with anything close to her best race. A strong series of recent workouts indicate she’s set to rebound, but at 6/5 on the morning line she won’t present much of a wagering opportunity. We can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Ultimate Bango; 5-Stop the Violence
Forecast: The morning line favorite in this second-level allowance turf sprint is Bon Nova (8/5), but while the class-dropping gelding certainly can win we’ll try to beat him in our rolling exotics using two dangerous contenders. Ultimate Bango has the route-to-sprint angle we like and in fact always struck us as being much more comfortable around one turn. The B. Heap-trained gelding should draft into a nice stalking position and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Stop the Violence comes off a first-level allowance/optional claiming grass dash win at Del Mar and a similar effort today makes him dangerous despite the class hike. He switches to good bug boy J. Velez, gets a few pounds off, and seems likely to enjoy a cozy stalking trip outside. On numbers he’s right there.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dr. Bagley; 7-Darwood
Forecast: We’ll double the nightcap, a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer at a mile. Dr. Bagley will leave from the rail and seems certain to enjoy a good ground-saving trip while dropping to his lowest level ever. F. Prat stays aboard, and with a repeat of his last performance – a solid third place effort with a career top speed figure, the J. Mullins-trained gelding should be hard to beat. He’s 4-1 on the morning line and we suspect he’ll go lower. Darwood has a maiden claiming win at Del Mar two runs back that charts well with these, and after being overmatched on grass last time out he returns to reality today while being reunited with “win rider” A. Delgadillo.
