The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, June 10, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Montu; 6-Ohio
Forecast: Churchill Downs shipper Montu looks intriguing as potentially the controlling speed in this downhill turf dash for $50,000 claimers. He’s been routing of late, but the son of Dialed In might be better sprinting and gets a chance to prove it today for new trainer Powell. Ohio hasn’t won in ages but seems to be coming back to his best following a solid runner-up in a similar race in late April. Drawn comfortably outside, the Brazilian-bred gelding should draft into a ideal pace-stalking position. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Montu.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Scurry; 5-Sing a Solo; 7-Sheza Factor
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the second race, a messy affair with a bunch of question marks. We’ll go three-deep but not with any degree of confidence. Scurry, a Midwest invader making her local bow for Spawr, has a speed figure two years ago that would bury this field, but who knows what kind of shape she’s in now? The works look good, so we’ll put her on top for a trainer that can be counted on to have her fit and ready. Sing a Solo, away since last summer and dropping drastically from straight maiden company to maiden $20,000, should be a strong fit based on her two races from last year, but this certainly isn’t a sign confidence from Miyadi. She’s a contender by default, though certainly not one to trust. Sheza Factor plummets to the bottom and seems to have found her friends. The Miller-trained filly continues to work well at San Luis Rey Downs and probably is a bit better than shown.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 6-Catfish Hunter
Forecast: Catfish Hunter demolished a starter’s allowance field in his recent comeback and should come right back to do the same to this first-level allowance state-bred field. However, he’s 6/5 on the morning line and seems certain to go odds-on. Let’s make him a no-value, rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Glorious Crown
Forecast: Glorious Crown is a first-off-the-claim for Mulhall (strong stats with this angle) and returns to turf while being raised from $12,500 to $25,000. His one prior grass race was a strong runner-up try last year (no doubt prompting the claim and today’s placement) and one of this barn’s go-to riders (Pedroza) takes the call. At 8-1 on the morning line, let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Etching; 6-Loving Moment
Forecast: Loving Moment didn’t get the best of runs when failing at even money in a turf affair last month but removes blinkers, switches to the main track, and is reunited with Baze, who got good run out of her two races back. If she can act on dirt, she’ll beat this field. Etching also sports the blinkers off angle and is a strong fit on numbers after getting tagged right on the money in a similar maiden special weight affair for fillies and mares last month. We’ll try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Loving Moment.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 10-Trojan Time
Forecast: Trojan Time has much in his favor in this extended restricted (Nw-2) sprint for $12,500 claimers. He just broke his maiden in visually pleasing fashion with a career top speed figure and is realistically spotted right back for a barn that generally runs them where they can win. At 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Bird Is the Word; 6-Lazzam
Forecast: In a race with plenty of committed speed types, let’s go with the closers. Bird Is the Word is back with “win rider” Desormeaux, and in his third start off a layoff should be primed for a major effort. He’s never been keen on winning but does show a prior victory over this course and distance. Lazzam was pitched too high in the San Juan Caspistrano but returns to a more realistic spot today. A repeat of his race before last will make him hard to beat. These are the two we’ll prefer with a slight preference on top to Bird Is the Word.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: Solomini split the field in the Kentucky Derby and returns home to what should be a confidence building win. But at 4/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do with him, other than to make him a no-value, rolling exotic single.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ten Count Out; 9-Stradella Road; 11-Don’t Blame Judy
Forecast: This downhill turf course sprint for maiden fillies and mares is fairly wide open; we’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Don’t Blame Judy flashed promise in her debut when second under these conditions last month and with any kind of forward move from her favorable outside draw the daughter of Blame should be hard to contain. Stradella Road, third in her last pair with gradually rising speed figures, returns after a brief vacation and should be a strong pace factor throughout. Ten Count Out, away for a year, has numbers that fit and probably is better than her 10-1 morning line gives her credit for. The rail is no bargain but she’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two.