Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Sunday, March 1, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Workout Analysis: View Report (PDF)
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Desert Swarm; 7-Sorriso
Forecast: Desert Swarm flashed speed, faded, and then went to the sidelines last summer after just one start, but he’s trained like he’s a better colt now and hails from a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. The son of Desert Code doesn’t really have a whole lot to beat in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint, so let’s put him on top while also including the intriguing newcomer, Sorriso, in our rolling exotic play. The son of Smiling Tiger is bred for much speed and has shown signs of it in morning preps. At this abbreviated sprint distance, he could be tough to catch if he breaks with his field.
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RACE 2: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: B
Single: 3-Beau Rocket
Forecast: Beau Rocket seems to have found a proper spot in this five-runner bottom-rung claiming miler for fillies and mares. The lightly-raced mare drops drastically in class, switches to A. Cedillo, and recently worked quite well to indicate a form reversal may be in store. She can be the controlling speed if she wants to be, and in a race lacking in effective closers the daughter of Heatseeker can get brave if not pressured early. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Fire When Ready; 3-Freiburg
Forecast: Fire When Ready is double jumped in class following a $12,500 Mullins claim – always a good sign – and after showing improvement in the morning for his new connections the son of Empire Way may be set to produce a significant forward move. A two-time winner over the local main track and with numbers that make him competitive despite the raise to the $20,000 level, ‘Ready switches to hot-riding U. Rispoli and rates top billing. Freiburg has back numbers that can win and is trying an easier group today, so the M. Glatt-trained gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play; we’ll also have extra tickets keying Fire When Ready to top.
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RACE 4: Post 2:28 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Treasure Hunter; 5-Winning Element
Forecast: Here’s another five runner affair, this one for $50,000 claimers over a mile on the main track. Treasure Hunter, a $35,000 claim last May by M. Glatt (terrific stats with this angle), returns waiver protected and has been first or second in eight of 12 starts over the Santa Anita main track. If he’s ready – and the works indicate fitness – the son of Treasure Beach can handle this assignment either on the front end or from a good stalking position. Winning Element, a $40,000 R. Hansen claim last month, is solid on numbers and really won’t have to improve much at all following a sharp last-out victory under F. Prat, who rides him back. The son of City Zip should find himself in a comfortable stalking position outside and have his chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll prefer Treasure Hunter on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Storming Lady; 4-Sold It
Forecast: Sold It turns back to a sprint and should fire her best shot under conditions that seem made to order. The D. O’Neill-trained daughter of The Factor is strong on speed figures and is a perfect one-for-one at this distance on grass. Storming Lady is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late. This course has been kind to the closers this meeting and with F. Prat staying aboard the daughter of Flat Out should get the kind of trip that will bring out her best. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Sold It on top.
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RACE 6: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Coilette; 4-Leading Indicator
Forecast: We’ve got this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 extended sprint for fillies and mares down to two main contenders, and both should be used in rolling exotic play. Leading Indicator, first or second in each of her last three outings, seems set for another top effort, and with just eight starts on her resume the daughter of Clubhouse Rise should have room for further improvement. Her numbers are gradually rising, she has the proper style for this six and one-half furlong trip, and she’s reunited with “win rider: A. Espinoza. Coilette, freshened since mid-December, hails from a high percentage outfit and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Both of her races over the Santa Anita main track were good, and not much better will be needed to return her to the winner’s circle.
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RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Oliver; 3-Fashionably Fast
Forecast: Fashionable Fast has won five straight, but this race is a mile and the razor sharp son of Lucky Pulpit has yet to prove he can be as effective around two-turns as he is sprinting. Strong on speed figures and thoroughly genuine and consistent, the D. Pederson-trained gelding has never been better so we suspect in his present form he’ll be able to get the trip. Oliver always hits hard in these state-bred stakes and actually won at this one mile distance in a stakes at Los Alamitos last year. He’ll draft into a good stalking position, and if Fashionable Fast finds the final furlong a bit too much this son of Papa Clem could be there to pick him up. Both should be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: B
Single: 5-A Man’s Man
Forecast: A Man’s Man is a single by default in this maiden state-bred turf sprint that came up unusually light;. The son of Mucho Macho Man ran well when finishing in the frame under these conditions in late January despite a less than ideal trip and anything close to that type of performance today should get the money. At 5/2 on the morning line, the B.Koriner-trained gelding is a straight play and rolling exotic single.
