“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Weigh the Risks; 6-Justdeny
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress so let’s focus on a pair of first timers in this middle distance inner turf maiden special weight affair for juvenile fillies. Weigh the Risks – View Workout – has looked like a fairly decent prospect in drills leading up to this race for Chad Brown, who hits at a terrific 24% with first time starters. Drawn nicely inside, the daughter of Mendelssohn should inherit a comfortable ground-saving trip under Flavian Pratt and then have every chance to graduate at first asking. Justdeny likewise has displayed ability in the morning – View Workout – and has been given a strong foundation by trainer Danny Gargan to be fit and ready. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Shigeko; 1-Vintage
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Our Rosie Diamonds.
Forecast: Shigeko, away since December, returns at her lowest level ever for new trainer Linda Rice (good stats with layoff runners) and should be capable of producing a winning late kick in this modest main track miler for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares. However, at 2-1 on the morning line, there isn’t much wagering value to be found. Vintage is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and could try gate-to-wire tactics for new trainer Jeffrey Englehart. Based on numbers, she’s a solid fit at the level on this circuit.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:25 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Growth Capital/1a-Right to Win
Backups/savers/Underneath: 7-War Officer.
Forecast: Either one of the Chad Brown entrants can win this maiden special weight turf event and if both start the entry should be a very short price. Right to Win has rising speed figures, adds blinkers, and exits a powerful race won by future star Northern Invader while Growth Capital, away for 11 months, returns with a healthy series of Monmouth Park workouts and has form last year that is good enough to beat this field, especially if gifted an easy early lead.
*
RACE 4: Post: 3:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Obrigada
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Liberty Flame.
Forecast: Obrigada stumbled badly at the start and wasn’t knocked about when far back in a similar starter sprint here two weeks ago. The Linda Rice-trained filly had a nice half mile breeze since that race, so we’ll assume she’s okay and capable of bouncing back. Worth noting is that the daughter of Alternation is a perfect three-for-three at this six furlong distance.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:34 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ever Summer
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Talbeyah; 7-Whatlovelookslike.
Forecast: Ever Summer appears solid in this second level allowance inner turf mini marathon for fillies and mares and will offer good value at or near her morning line of 7/2. She lost a toughie at Delaware Park on soft ground earlier this month when nailed on the money in a graded stakes event and this return to the allowance ranks for the always formidable Rosario/Clement jockey-trainer team looks like a winning move. Sher might inherit the lead from her cozy inside draw but certainly can stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:08 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Waskesiu; 4-Mugen
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Life Talk.
Forecast: Waskesiu breezed like a stone runner – View Workout – in a gate drill July 15 and then a week later produced a bullet five furlong drill (1:00b, the fastest of 12) to set her up nicely for her racing debut. The daughter of American Pharoah has smooth action and excellent speed, and, assuming she breaks well she should be a major player at 4-1 on the morning line. Mugen is another newcomer worth considering. The blazed-face daughter of leading sire Into Mischief from Test S.-G1 winner Paola Queen has looked terrific in her preparatory drills for Steve Asmussen. She brought $1.2 million as a yearling at Saratoga last year for a reason.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:41 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Kueramata
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 11-Jerry the Nipper; 9-Easter.
Forecast: Kuramata launches a comeback after finishing up his year 11 months ago with a convincingly win in the Oceanport S. at Monmouth Park in a strong performance that produced a career top speed figure. Now a gelding, the veteran Irish-bred turf specialist need only return as well as he left to outclass his rivals in this three-other-than middle distance affair for trainer Chad Brown, who strikes at a spectacular 30% with layoff runners. He’s proved he can win fresh, and his workouts should have him plenty fit and ready, so at 7/2 on the morning line the son of Australia offers an excellent gambling opportunity in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:16 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Rule Breaker
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Atlanta’s Acuna.
Forecast: Rule Breaker drops into a maiden ($30,000) claimer for the first time and returns to the main track for a high percentage outfit based at Monmouth Park. He’s been off the board in all three starts when facing much tougher straight maidens and today will add blinkers for the first time. He’s the best of this lot based strictly on speed figures, so at 5/2 on the morning line the son of Into Mischief looks well placed to graduate.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:49 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Rebel’s Romance
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Soldier Rising,
Forecast: The 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf-G1 winner Rebel’s Romance returns to the States for this year’s renewal of the Bowling Green S.-G2 and simply should outclass this field. Unplaced in the Dubai Sheema Classic-G1 in March when seventh behind the world’s best grass runner Equinox, the son of Dubawi should regain his confidence against this group if he’s close to his form from last year, and we suspect he wouldn’t have been shipped across the pond if trainer Charlie Appleby thought he wasn’t. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the 5-year-old gelding is a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:21 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Arrasou; 4-Rivierre
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Arrasou breezed like quick type – View Workout – for Chad Brown in a team drill earlier this month while appearing plenty fit and ready for a winning effort first time out in this abbreviated turf dash for older fillies and mares. A $235,000 yearling purchase, she finally makes it to the races at age three and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr. Riviere had a rough trip (off slowly, wide) in her debut last month at Belmont Park before winding up fourth after looming a strong threat in the upper stretch. She has plenty of room to improve and is easily the most dangerous among those that have raced.
