Always Dreaming and Classic Empire brought arguably the two best resumes into the Kentucky Derby and the Derby did very little to change that belief. Both horses ran very well with Always Dreaming parlaying a perfect trip to victory and Classic Empire overcoming a brutal trip to run 4th. These are the clear cut best three-year-olds and the difference in talent between the two is very small, yet Always Dreaming will be at least three times lower odds than Classic Empire in the Preakness Stakes.
The only way to make money in the Preakness is by keying Classic Empire on top in all vertical wagers. He was clobbered at the start, ran 75 feet further than Always Dreaming and ran on the worst part of an off track. Always Dreaming absolutely can run 2nd, but keying him underneath would limit value. For as good of a trainer as Todd Pletcher is, he does not like to run his horses back in two weeks, especially following the Kentucky Derby. He had to do this with Super Saver and he ended up running 8th in the Preakness.
For this reason I will key Gunnevera is the 2nd and 3rd hole in the trifecta. People quickly forget how impressive this colt was in the Fountain of Youth and his Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby efforts were much better than they look. He has looked great on the track at Pimlico leading up to the Preakness and is being greatly undervalued at 15-1.
Always Dreaming, Hence, Senior Investment, Lookin at Lee and Conquest Mo Money are the other contenders to consider underneath.
With that being said, here are the value wagers for the Preakness Stakes:
1.Classic Empire (5)
2. Gunnevera (6)
3. Hence (3), Always Dreaming (4), Senior Investment (8), Lookin at Lee (9), Conquest Mo Money (10)
1. Classic Empire (5)
2. Hence (3), Always Dreaming (4), Senior Investment (8), Lookin at Lee (9), Conquest Mo Money (10)
3. Gunnevera (6)