Leverage Plays: Betting the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Stellar Wind (#2, 5/2) is tough as they come and should be right there on the wire in this year’s Distaff after a disastrous start last year. Prior to last year’s Breeders’ Cup, she beat Beholder twice and contrary to the belief of many, I think she is just as good this year as last. She has been forced into a stalker role in her three starts this year behind three lone speed leaders. Like Zenyatta, this mare does what she has to do and does not win by much, but she knows where the wire is. Look for her to sit just behind Paradise Woods and Champagne Room before making a winning move to give John Sadler his first Breeders’ Cup victory.

Elate (#5, 3-1) is the buzz horse of the Breeders’ Cup. She has beaten absolutely no one, but she has looked awfully good doing it and seems to be peaking at the right time. Her upside could be the only thing to get in Stellar Wind’s path, but she will need to take another step forward to contend with quality older horses.

Forever Unbridled (#6, 4-1) is the forgotten horse of the Breeders’ Cup and is almost certain to get a piece of the action. Let’s face it, the Songbird that she beat was a shell of herself, but Forever Unbridled showed a relentless motor to run her down on an easy lead. She may be paced compromised in this spot, but the honest mare will make her run and fill out the exacta or trifecta.

Paradise Woods (#7, 9/2) will either run first or be off the board in this spot. She needs an easy lead to prosper and may be better at Santa Anita Park than anywhere else. If Champagne Room was to break slow or take back, Paradise Woods may get her ideal setup. Scary in a race without a lot of pace, she is a true wildcard here.

Abel Tasman (#4, 4-1) does not seem to be improving at the same rate as Elate and now must deal with older horses. I am not a fan of the mid race moves she has been racing while keen and she must relax to have a chance. She still possess a great resume and has loads of class. Like Forever Unbridled, she will be closing late to try to pick up a piece.

Wagering Strategy

$1 Trifecta (2 / 6 / 1,4,5)

$1 Trifecta  (2 / 1,4,5 / 6)

$ 1 Trifecta (5,7 / 2 / 1,4,5 )

$ 1 Superfecta (2 / 5,6 / 5,6 / 1,4)

$1 Superfecta  (2 / 5,6 / 1,4 / 5,6)

$1 Superfecta  (5,7 / 2 /  6 / 1,4, 5)

Total: $ 23

-Padraic Manocchio
@xbtvpadraic

 

Leverage Plays: Betting the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

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