The biggest question in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is which Aidan O’Brien filly will win? September (#10, 6-1) is the less heralded of O’Brien’s two stars, but she may prove to be just as efficient in America as Happily (#2, 9/2).
I urge everyone the take a look at September‘s last race. The chart comment of lacked room was the understatement of the century. Bred to excel at the distance, she showed a tremendous turn of foot to almost snatch an improbable victory after a race full of trouble. She is proven over a mile, proven over firm turf and proven on a left-handed course. Those three qualities are just as vital, if not more vital, to a invaders’ chances than class is.
Speaking of class, Happily oozes it. She just captured a Group 1 over males at the one-mile distance of this race. Also proven on a left-handed course, this filly is strictly the horse to beat. Reports that she did not ship that well and a short price are the only negatives.
Rushing Fall (#11, 7/2) appears to be the best of the Americans and slightly better than stablemate Significant Form (#8, 8-1). She has uncorked an impressive late run in both career starts for Chad Brown, who has had great success in this race. She must negotiate a short stretch and a tough post while coming from the clouds. Orbolution (#6, 20-1) is an interesting price play. She would have been a short price off of her first two turf starts, but is sitting at 20-1 after running third in a race that did not set up for her, With more pace signed on in here, look for her to be closing for the exotics. Carla Temptress (#7, 6-1) might not have beaten much in her U.S. debut, but she looked very good doing it. She has to find a way to turn the tables on Juliet Capulet (#13, 12-1), but she has the right style to work out a great trip in her first start for Bill Mott.
Wagering Strategy
$1 Exacta Box (2,10)
$1 Exacta (2, 10 / 6,7,8,11)
$0.50 Trifecta (2, 10 / 11 / 2,6,7,8,10,13)
$0.50 Trifecta (2, 10 / 2,6,7,8,10,13 / 11)
Total: $20
-Padraic Manocchio
@xbtvpadraic
