Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Aqueduct on March 9th, 2019

Below is an economical late Pick 4 ticket for March 9th, 2019 at Aqueduct on an $15 budget. Good luck to all!

Race 8

Do Share (#2, 8-1) can spring an upset from off the pace in a Tom Fool Handicap loaded with speed. This gelding makes his third start off a layoff and returns to 6 furlongs, where he has run first or second nine out of eleven times. He also has 3 wins from 6 starts over the Aqueduct main track. I expect him to save ground on the inside and come flying home when this race falls apart at the seams late.

Skyler's Scramjet (#3, 8-5) is a hard-knocker and deserving favorite in this spot.  Like Do Share, he adores the 6 furlong layout at Aqueduct. Defending champions should always be respected and this gelding does not need the lead to win if others beat him to the punch out of the gate.

Race 9

Stan the Man (#4, 5-2) has never been better as he seeks his first stakes victory. He has won four of his last five starts, has only been out of the money once in ten starts at Aqueduct and is conditioned by John Terranova, who is winning at 30 % at the meet.

Curlin's Honor (#1, 15-1) is intriguing at a big price. This $1.5 million purchase was cut out to be a good one and many of his best efforts have come in one turn races. He gets his first chance to run on dirt in quite some time and is aggressively spotted in a stakes race off a layoff. Don't be surprised if this colt uses this race as a springboard to a much improved four-year-old campaign.

Sunny Ridge (#2, 8-5) best efforts are good enough to win this race, but he often disappoints at low odds. As the class of the field he is certainly worthy of inclusion for the red hot Jason Servis barn, but he just lost at 1/2 in a similar spot and is no cinch at 8/5 here.

Title Ready ( #5, 6-1) often stalls late at longer distances after making middle moves. This leads me to believe that a one turn mile is right up his alley. He won at this distance two starts back and will have every opportunity to prove he is up to the class hike in here.

Vino Rosso (#8, 7-2) has run two giant races at Aqueduct including a win in last year's Wood Memorial. He has the class to make noise in this spot, but makes his first start as a four-year-old at a distance that is likely shorter than he prefers. This looks like a prep race to me.

Race 10

Instagrand (#6, 1-1) may be less than 100% cranked up for this spot, but he could run halfway home to his stall at Santa Anita Park and be back in time to beat the field. A one turn mile is the perfect spot to return off a layoff and this top Kentucky Derby contender should thump this group on his way to bigger and better things.

Race 11

Oxy Lady (#3, 5-1)  turned in a disappointing effort at Fair Grounds last time out, but destroyed her competition over this exact layout in November. She may just prove to be a better one turn horse and lures the services of Javier Castellano in here.

Please Flatter Me (#10, 3-1) gets a bit of an acid test in here, but has done nothing wrong in three impressive victories to start her career. The horse she defeated easily last time at Laurel, Ujjayi, returned to win the prep for this race at Aqueduct. She could be a star in the making, but we will find out just how good she is today.

Orra Moor (#12, 6-1) is another runner who takes a step up in class in this spot. She has started her career with two easy victories at Gulfstream Park and is bred to enjoy the stretch out in distance. Her Beyer Speed Figures came back light in both starts, but sometimes good fillies only run as fast as needed to win.

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket:  2,3 – 1,2,4,5,8 – 6 – 3, 10, 12  = $15

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

 

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Aqueduct on March 9th, 2019